Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.</li>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks


Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

In last week's Int'l Compass (Sept. 2), we highlighted emerging markets (EEM-US, Shanghai Comp) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) as areas of bullish interest, with short-term bullish inflections suggesting the tide was turning in favor of these markets. This remains the focus in today's report, and especially on Japan; bullish price inflections and breakouts have started to proliferate, which suggests this could be the start of a broad-based rally for Japan in the weeks and months ahead.

In last week's Int'l Compass (Sept. 2), we highlighted emerging markets (EEM-US, Shanghai Comp) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) as areas of bullish interest, with short-term bullish inflections suggesting the tide was turning in favor of these markets. This remains the focus in today's report, and especially on Japan; bullish price inflections and breakouts have started to proliferate, which suggests this could be the start of a broad-based rally for Japan in the weeks and months ahead.

Buy Japan On This Breakout ; TOPIX Breaking Out To 21-Year Highs; Actionable Theme: Growth Sectors

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In our earlier insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pli-schemes-let-s-not-get-carried-away" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45394" rel="noopener">PLI Schemes: Let's Not Get Carried Away</a> we had discussed our take on the recent PLI introduced by the government and how it can shape the economy. This insight focuses on the White goods PLI which have been handed a total budget of INR 62.4 bn. We further narrow our take on the air conditioners (ACs) segment of the white goods.
Domestic AC manufacturers were particularly abuzz when the first thought of PLI came in from the government. However the recent development of the scheme, which targets only the component manufacturing has left most of the domestic large companies thinking whether to opt for the PLI or not.

In our earlier insight, PLI Schemes: Let's Not Get Carried Away we had discussed our take on the recent PLI introduced by the government and how it can shape the economy. This insight focuses on the White goods PLI which have been handed a total budget of INR 62.4 bn. We further narrow our take on the air conditioners (ACs) segment of the white goods.
Domestic AC manufacturers were particularly abuzz when the first thought of PLI came in from the government. However the recent development of the scheme, which targets only the component manufacturing has left most of the domestic large companies thinking whether to opt for the PLI or not.

PLI for White Goods: Domestic Companies Left Stranded

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Investor sentiment in the Industrials sector is turning positive after a multi-year decline among active Asia Ex-Japan fund managers.Average allocations in the Industrials sector fell from a peak of 11.4% in mid-2011 to a low of just 4.82% in July of last year.  Since that trough, allocations have started to increase, with today's levels of 5.46% the highest since late 2019.We highlight 7 companies that have attracted new investment in the early stages of the reallocation towards the Industrials sector.

Investor sentiment in the Industrials sector is turning positive after a multi-year decline among active Asia Ex-Japan fund managers.Average allocations in the Industrials sector fell from a peak of 11.4% in mid-2011 to a low of just 4.82% in July of last year.  Since that trough, allocations have started to increase, with today's levels of 5.46% the highest since late 2019.We highlight 7 companies that have attracted new investment in the early stages of the reallocation towards the Industrials sector.  

India

Voltas Limited is an Indian multinational home appliance and engineering solutions company, known for its air conditioning products and a wide range of cooling and home appliances. It also provides electro-mechanical project services and engineering products. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was founded in 1954.

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Voltas (VOLT IN)

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing important intermediate-term support levels of $99, $54, and $76.50...

Vermilion Research

Buy Japan On This Breakout ; TOPIX Breaking Out To 21-Year Highs; Actionable Theme: Growth Sectors

Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) was a big focus for us last week, and it remains the focus in today's report; this could be the start of a broad-based...

Vermilion Research

PLI for White Goods: Domestic Companies Left Stranded

AC manufacturers were particularly abuzz when the first thought of PLI came in. However, the recent development of the scheme has left most of the...

Nitin Mangal

Asia Ex-Japan: Industrials Rotation

Investor sentiment in the Industrials sector is turning positive after a multi-year decline among active Asia Ex-Japan fund managers.

Steven Holden

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