New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>New Zealand: Resi slowdown drags down construction forecasts</li><li>Australia: Australian outlook comments robust despite softening residential</li><li>International: Millions of empty flats threatens to plunge China’s troubled property market further into crisis</li></ul>

New Zealand: Resi slowdown drags down construction forecastsAustralia: Australian outlook comments robust despite softening residentialInternational: Millions of empty flats threatens to plunge China’s troubled property market further into crisis

<ul><li>June quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production suggests that while NZ construction activity remains at robust levels nationally some regions have rolled over the peak</li><li>Solid 2Q22 volumes but some regions rolling over the peak</li><li>RMC production is the first NZ construction indicator for 2Q CY22, and including cement and aggregates a significant exposure for Fletcher Building (FBU).</li></ul>

June quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production suggests that while NZ construction activity remains at robust levels nationally some regions have rolled over the peakSolid 2Q22 volumes but some regions rolling over the peakRMC production is the first NZ construction indicator for 2Q CY22, and including cement and aggregates a significant exposure for Fletcher Building (FBU).

Building Sector: Ready-Mix Concrete — First Cracks Appearing?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Vulcan Steel (VSL) reported a soft four month trading update at its annual shareholder meeting.</li><li>EBITDA was down -29% on the prior period, driven by margin pressure from higher costs and operating deleverage from slower activity in NZ.</li><li>This was not unexpected (we forecast 1H24 EBITDA to be down -30%) with trading comments provided at the FY23 result pointing to a slowdown in activity ahead of the general election. </li></ul>

Vulcan Steel (VSL) reported a soft four month trading update at its annual shareholder meeting.EBITDA was down -29% on the prior period, driven by margin pressure from higher costs and operating deleverage from slower activity in NZ.This was not unexpected (we forecast 1H24 EBITDA to be down -30%) with trading comments provided at the FY23 result pointing to a slowdown in activity ahead of the general election. 

<ul><li>Vulcan Steel's (VSL) FY23 result was in line with recent guidance and our expectations.</li><li>Lower volumes and margin pressure impacted the Steel division, while Metals held up better with Ullrich Aluminium (Ullrich) providing a timely maiden contribution.</li><li>Reduced volumes were largely driven by NZ which slowed again over the final weeks of the year with the upcoming general election weighing on activity. </li></ul>

Vulcan Steel's (VSL) FY23 result was in line with recent guidance and our expectations.Lower volumes and margin pressure impacted the Steel division, while Metals held up better with Ullrich Aluminium (Ullrich) providing a timely maiden contribution.Reduced volumes were largely driven by NZ which slowed again over the final weeks of the year with the upcoming general election weighing on activity. 

Vulcan Steel - FY23 Result — Bending, Not Breaking

<ul><li>Vulcan Steel (VSL) reported a disappointing trading and earnings guidance update.</li><li>VSL downgraded its FY23 EBITDA and NPAT guidance range by -7%/-14% at the mid-points respectively.</li><li>At the operating level (excl. integration costs), this was c.-7% below our forecast which was primarily driven by a late fourth quarter decline in NZ activity (particularly in the Steel division) with Australian activity holding up better.</li></ul>

Vulcan Steel (VSL) reported a disappointing trading and earnings guidance update.VSL downgraded its FY23 EBITDA and NPAT guidance range by -7%/-14% at the mid-points respectively.At the operating level (excl. integration costs), this was c.-7% below our forecast which was primarily driven by a late fourth quarter decline in NZ activity (particularly in the Steel division) with Australian activity holding up better.

Vulcan Steel: FY23 Trading and Earnings Guidance Update

New Zealand

Vulcan Steel Ltd operates as a metals distributing and processing company. The Company offers stainless and engineering steel products. Vulcan Steel serves customers in Australia and New Zealand.

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Vulcan Steel Limited (VSL NZ)

Building Weekly (26-Aug-2022)

Construction spending forecast to fall -18% to NZ$42bn by 2027, primarily driven by forecast resi construction down -36% (c.-NZ$11bn) while non...

Forsyth Barr

Building Sector: Ready-Mix Concrete — First Cracks Appearing?

June quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production suggests that while NZ construction activity remains at robust levels nationally some regions have...

Forsyth Barr

Vulcan Steel - Testing Its Mettle

EBITDA was down -29% on the prior period, driven by margin pressure from higher costs and operating deleverage from slower activity in NZ.

Forsyth Barr

Vulcan Steel - FY23 Result — Bending, Not Breaking

Lower volumes and margin pressure impacted the Steel division, while Metals held up better with Ullrich Aluminium (Ullrich) providing a timely...

Forsyth Barr

Vulcan Steel: FY23 Trading and Earnings Guidance Update

Vulcan Steel (VSL) reported disappointing results with a -7% downgrade in FY23 earnings guidance, mainly due to a decline in NZ activity, while...

Forsyth Barr

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