Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Equity Bottom-Up

Wal-Mart de Mexico SAB de CV / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Walmex’s stock has borne the cost, albeit too much in our view.</li>
<li>Post 2Q25 results, Walmex’s stock has been heavily underperforming (10.3% down) the MEXBOL (1.7% down), reaching its lowest level since late 2020.</li>
<li>While SSS and sales performed slightly above our estimates, margins were in our view the main drivers of the underperformance.</li>
</ul>


Walmex’s stock has borne the cost, albeit too much in our view.
Post 2Q25 results, Walmex’s stock has been heavily underperforming (10.3% down) the MEXBOL (1.7% down), reaching its lowest level since late 2020.
While SSS and sales performed slightly above our estimates, margins were in our view the main drivers of the underperformance.


Actinver Research - Walmex Post 2Q25: The Impact Is Done — Upgrade to Outperform

<ul>
<li>FY25 Guidance. Walmex is guiding a 20% YoY increase in Capex levels, leading to P$41.8bn, and a record level as a % of sales (at 4%) considering our current FY25 estimates.</li>
<li>Out of this, 41% is planned for remodeling and maintenance, new capabilities and functions, 30% for new stores, 18% for Supply Chain, and 11% for technology.</li>
<li>In terms of sales, the company expects FY25 sales growth of 6-7% (slightly above our estimates); new store sales are expected to contribute 1.5-1.7% –slightly below our estimates– and the remainder is expected to come from SSS, e-commerce and other businesses. </li>
</ul>


FY25 Guidance. Walmex is guiding a 20% YoY increase in Capex levels, leading to P$41.8bn, and a record level as a % of sales (at 4%) considering our current FY25 estimates.
Out of this, 41% is planned for remodeling and maintenance, new capabilities and functions, 30% for new stores, 18% for Supply Chain, and 11% for technology.
In terms of sales, the company expects FY25 sales growth of 6-7% (slightly above our estimates); new store sales are expected to contribute 1.5-1.7% –slightly below our estimates– and the remainder is expected to come from SSS, e-commerce and other businesses. 


Actinver Research - Walmex Day 2025: Investments are the highlight (Quick View)

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

<ul><li>Mexican market attractiveness discussed, focusing on Walmart de Mexico y Centroamerica (Walmex)</li><li>Mexican equities de-rated due to government policies, leading to discounted valuations for quality businesses like Walmex</li><li>Walmex, largest retailer in Mexico and Central America with 3,901 stores, seen as well-run, high-quality business and long-term investment opportunity</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.</em></p>

Mexican market attractiveness discussed, focusing on Walmart de Mexico y Centroamerica (Walmex)Mexican equities de-rated due to government policies, leading to discounted valuations for quality businesses like WalmexWalmex, largest retailer in Mexico and Central America with 3,901 stores, seen as well-run, high-quality business and long-term investment opportunityThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Walmex De Mexico (WALMEX *) - Thursday, Oct 31, 2024

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In the midst of the soft top-line performance, management remains cautious, expecting more cost and Capex efficiencies, and a tough consumer environment with consumers remaining more selective as in previous quarters.</li>
<li>Still, most companies reiterated their FY25 guidance, with Bimbo an exception amid different FX conditions vs previously forecasted, and with Chedraui expecting downside risks at the top-line level.</li>
<li>Within Food &amp; Bev, we continue to prefer AC, KOF, FEMSA and Becle (all Outperform). With no major PT changes, we continue to expect these players to outperform peers despite volume pressure and the excise taxes planned for next year. </li>
</ul>


In the midst of the soft top-line performance, management remains cautious, expecting more cost and Capex efficiencies, and a tough consumer environment with consumers remaining more selective as in previous quarters.
Still, most companies reiterated their FY25 guidance, with Bimbo an exception amid different FX conditions vs previously forecasted, and with Chedraui expecting downside risks at the top-line level.
Within Food &amp; Bev, we continue to prefer AC, KOF, FEMSA and Becle (all Outperform). With no major PT changes, we continue to expect these players to outperform peers despite volume pressure and the excise taxes planned for next year. 


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 3Q25 Update

<ul>
<li>ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%, respectively, and c.2x YTD averages.</li>
<li>Calendar tailwinds and payday timing drove the strong print despite persistent weather challenges.</li>
<li>The recovery was mainly driven by favorable calendar effects: August included one additional full weekend versus last year, and both bi-weekly paydays coincided with weekends, boosting traffic and consumption. </li>
</ul>


ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%, respectively, and c.2x YTD averages.
Calendar tailwinds and payday timing drove the strong print despite persistent weather challenges.
The recovery was mainly driven by favorable calendar effects: August included one additional full weekend versus last year, and both bi-weekly paydays coincided with weekends, boosting traffic and consumption. 


Actinver Research - Retail Update: ANTAD August SSS and Feedback from Store Tour

Mexico

Wal-Mart de Mexico S.A.B. de C.V. retails food, clothing, and other merchandise under a variety of store formats. The Company operates Wal-Mart Supercenters, Sam's Club wholesale outlets, Bodega discount stores and Superama supermarkets.

Wal-Mart de Mexico SAB de CV (WALMEX* MM EQUITY)

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Wal-Mart de Mexico SAB de CV (WALMEX* MM EQUITY)

Actinver Research - Walmex Post 2Q25: The Impact Is Done — Upgrade to Outperform

Post 2Q25 results, Walmex’s stock has been heavily underperforming (10.3% down) the MEXBOL (1.7% down), reaching its lowest level since late 2020.

Actinver

Actinver Research - Walmex Day 2025: Investments are the highlight (Quick View)

FY25 Guidance. Walmex is guiding a 20% YoY increase in Capex levels, leading to P$41.8bn, and a record level as a % of sales (at 4%) considering...

Actinver

Walmex De Mexico (WALMEX *) - Thursday, Oct 31, 2024

Walmex, largest retailer in Mexico and Central America with 3,901 stores, seen as well-run, high-quality business and long-term investment opportunity

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 3Q25 Update

We highlight Becle given its solid margin performance, ahead of our previous upbeat estimates, even after accounting for non-recurring items

Actinver

Actinver Research - Retail Update: ANTAD August SSS and Feedback from Store Tour

ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%,...

Actinver

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