Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We continue to see signs of a K-shaped consumer environment in Mexico (and the U.S.), as some high-earners remain more resilient (e.g., the City Market customer), while the race to the bottom of the socioeconomic spectrum leaves a few players solidly winning share (e.g., TBBB).</li>
<li>With no major catalysts expected for the year —as macro conditions remain soft and the World Cup tailwind is not a panacea—, we mostly lower our price targets (on a median basis), while leaving our ratings unchanged.</li>
<li>Overall, most companies underperformed vs. our estimates and consensus at the sales level, while slightly better in terms of margins. </li>
</ul>


We continue to see signs of a K-shaped consumer environment in Mexico (and the U.S.), as some high-earners remain more resilient (e.g., the City Market customer), while the race to the bottom of the socioeconomic spectrum leaves a few players solidly winning share (e.g., TBBB).
With no major catalysts expected for the year —as macro conditions remain soft and the World Cup tailwind is not a panacea—, we mostly lower our price targets (on a median basis), while leaving our ratings unchanged.
Overall, most companies underperformed vs. our estimates and consensus at the sales level, while slightly better in terms of margins. 


Actinver Research - Consumer post 1Q26: Still Not O-K

<ul>
<li>While we previously had a cautious view on the Consumer sector, results were slightly better than expected (in line vs. our estimates in terms of sales and on a median basis, and slightly outperforming at the EBITDA level).</li>
<li>In our 4Q25 Preview (link here) we mostly lowered our PTs for the sector, and expected flattish margins overall.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, while FX headwinds increased and the soft consumer environment persists, our covered Consumer companies managed to keep mostly resilient numbers. </li>
</ul>


While we previously had a cautious view on the Consumer sector, results were slightly better than expected (in line vs. our estimates in terms of sales and on a median basis, and slightly outperforming at the EBITDA level).
In our 4Q25 Preview (link here) we mostly lowered our PTs for the sector, and expected flattish margins overall.
Nonetheless, while FX headwinds increased and the soft consumer environment persists, our covered Consumer companies managed to keep mostly resilient numbers. 


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 4Q25 Update

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In the midst of the soft top-line performance, management remains cautious, expecting more cost and Capex efficiencies, and a tough consumer environment with consumers remaining more selective as in previous quarters.</li>
<li>Still, most companies reiterated their FY25 guidance, with Bimbo an exception amid different FX conditions vs previously forecasted, and with Chedraui expecting downside risks at the top-line level.</li>
<li>Within Food &amp; Bev, we continue to prefer AC, KOF, FEMSA and Becle (all Outperform). With no major PT changes, we continue to expect these players to outperform peers despite volume pressure and the excise taxes planned for next year. </li>
</ul>


In the midst of the soft top-line performance, management remains cautious, expecting more cost and Capex efficiencies, and a tough consumer environment with consumers remaining more selective as in previous quarters.
Still, most companies reiterated their FY25 guidance, with Bimbo an exception amid different FX conditions vs previously forecasted, and with Chedraui expecting downside risks at the top-line level.
Within Food &amp; Bev, we continue to prefer AC, KOF, FEMSA and Becle (all Outperform). With no major PT changes, we continue to expect these players to outperform peers despite volume pressure and the excise taxes planned for next year. 


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 3Q25 Update

<ul>
<li>ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%, respectively, and c.2x YTD averages.</li>
<li>Calendar tailwinds and payday timing drove the strong print despite persistent weather challenges.</li>
<li>The recovery was mainly driven by favorable calendar effects: August included one additional full weekend versus last year, and both bi-weekly paydays coincided with weekends, boosting traffic and consumption. </li>
</ul>


ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%, respectively, and c.2x YTD averages.
Calendar tailwinds and payday timing drove the strong print despite persistent weather challenges.
The recovery was mainly driven by favorable calendar effects: August included one additional full weekend versus last year, and both bi-weekly paydays coincided with weekends, boosting traffic and consumption. 


Actinver Research - Retail Update: ANTAD August SSS and Feedback from Store Tour

<ul>
<li>Soft expectations were met by resilient results.</li>
<li>As expected, weather headwinds and a weak consumer environment weighed on results.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, while top-line was fairly in line with our estimates, margins contracted less than expected, as companies benefitted from different strategies —along with mix, FX in some cases, and efficiencies— to protect profitability.</li>
</ul>


Soft expectations were met by resilient results.
As expected, weather headwinds and a weak consumer environment weighed on results.
Nonetheless, while top-line was fairly in line with our estimates, margins contracted less than expected, as companies benefitted from different strategies —along with mix, FX in some cases, and efficiencies— to protect profitability.


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 2Q25 Update

Mexico

Wal-Mart de Mexico S.A.B. de C.V. retails food, clothing, and other merchandise under a variety of store formats. The Company operates Wal-Mart Supercenters, Sam's Club wholesale outlets, Bodega discount stores and Superama supermarkets.

Wal-Mart de Mexico SAB de CV (WALMEX* MM EQUITY)

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Wal-Mart de Mexico SAB de CV (WALMEX* MM EQUITY)

Actinver Research - Consumer post 1Q26: Still Not O-K

We continue to see signs of a K-shaped consumer environment in Mexico (and the U.S.), as some high-earners remain more resilient (e.g., the City...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 4Q25 Update

While we previously had a cautious view on the Consumer sector, results were slightly better than expected (in line vs. our estimates in terms of...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 3Q25 Update

We highlight Becle given its solid margin performance, ahead of our previous upbeat estimates, even after accounting for non-recurring items

Actinver

Actinver Research - Retail Update: ANTAD August SSS and Feedback from Store Tour

ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%,...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 2Q25 Update

On average, our covered Consumer companies grew top line by 8% YoY (vs. 7% forecasted), and EBITDA by 5% (vs. our 3% estimate).

Actinver

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