IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 13 September, the Ministry of Finance of Japan added 7&amp;I to <a href="https://www.mof.go.jp/policy/international_policy/gaitame_kawase/press_release/20240913.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a list of "core" designated companies</a> based on results of voluntary inquiries to all listed companies.</li>
<li>Several media reports suggest that the change in 7&amp;I’s designation to core would complicate the proposed acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a>. The core designation will not change Couche-Tard's strategy.</li>
<li>The change to 7&amp;I’s designation to core will paradoxically push Couche-Tard to firm up its revised offer. An undemanding valuation protects the downside of a no-deal situation.</li>
</ul>


On 13 September, the Ministry of Finance of Japan added 7&amp;I to a list of "core" designated companies based on results of voluntary inquiries to all listed companies.
Several media reports suggest that the change in 7&amp;I’s designation to core would complicate the proposed acquisition by Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN). The core designation will not change Couche-Tard's strategy.
The change to 7&amp;I’s designation to core will paradoxically push Couche-Tard to firm up its revised offer. An undemanding valuation protects the downside of a no-deal situation.


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Core Designation Does Not Change Couche-Tard’s Calculus

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Biden Administration rule would make "de minimis" items subject to tariffs</li>
<li>Besides adding to landed cost of those items, reporting requirements would rise</li>
<li>In addition, US/EU governments launch probes of SHEIN/Temu product safety</li>
</ul>


Biden Administration rule would make "de minimis" items subject to tariffs
Besides adding to landed cost of those items, reporting requirements would rise
In addition, US/EU governments launch probes of SHEIN/Temu product safety


SHEIN and Temu: New Rule Could Crush "De Minimis" Imports | New Front In "War"  Vs DTC Platforms

<ul>
<li>Despite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>'s rejection, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a> remains prepared to enter collaborative and friendly discussions to focus on finding greater value for 7&amp;i shareholders. </li>
<li>Couche-Tard’s options are to return with a revised offer, go hostile or walk away. Couche-Tard will likely test the Board’s resolve by returning with a higher offer.</li>
<li>The Board’s options are to go through the motions (appointing IFAs), conduct a market check or launch a more aggressive action plan to placate restive shareholders. </li>
</ul>


Despite Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)'s rejection, Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) remains prepared to enter collaborative and friendly discussions to focus on finding greater value for 7&amp;i shareholders. 
Couche-Tard’s options are to return with a revised offer, go hostile or walk away. Couche-Tard will likely test the Board’s resolve by returning with a higher offer.
The Board’s options are to go through the motions (appointing IFAs), conduct a market check or launch a more aggressive action plan to placate restive shareholders. 


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): State of Play

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>After Dollar General’s (DG) disastrous earnings couple of weeks ago, I was quite concerned about their prospects in the near-term.</li><li>However, a week later after digesting through Dollar Tree (DLTR) as well as DG management’s explanation in the Goldman Sachs Retailing Conference, I have updated some of my thoughts about DG…in the positive direction.</li><li>Nonetheless, I have decided to abide by my decision not to inject more capital to DG, but to increase my notional exposure to DG via long-dated call options. </li></ul>

After Dollar General’s (DG) disastrous earnings couple of weeks ago, I was quite concerned about their prospects in the near-term.However, a week later after digesting through Dollar Tree (DLTR) as well as DG management’s explanation in the Goldman Sachs Retailing Conference, I have updated some of my thoughts about DG…in the positive direction.Nonetheless, I have decided to abide by my decision not to inject more capital to DG, but to increase my notional exposure to DG via long-dated call options. 

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> and weight changes as a result of the market consultation proposals being adopted will result in a round-trip trade of US$31.5bn.</li>
<li>The largest one-way turnover is expected in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/consumer-staples-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27536:1" rel="noopener">Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/materials-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27541:1" rel="noopener">Materials Select Sector SPDR</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27534:1" rel="noopener">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund</a>.</li>
<li>The inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/palantir-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27728:1" rel="noopener">Palantir Technologies (PLTR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies (DELL US)</a> will add to the buying from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> trackers.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX and weight changes as a result of the market consultation proposals being adopted will result in a round-trip trade of US$31.5bn.
The largest one-way turnover is expected in the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund, Technology Select Sector SPDR, Materials Select Sector SPDR and Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund.
The inflows to Apple (AAPL US), Palantir Technologies (PLTR US) and Dell Technologies (DELL US) will add to the buying from the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) trackers.


Select Sector Indices: Inflows to Apple, Palantir, Dell Will Add to SPX Buying

United States

Walmart Inc. operates discount stores, supercenters, and neighborhood markets. The Company offers merchandise such as apparel, house wares, small appliances, electronics, musical instruments, books, home improvement, shoes, jewelry, toddler, games, household essentials, pets, pharmaceutical products, party supplies, and automotive tools. Walmart serves customers worldwide.

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Walmart (WMT US)

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Core Designation Does Not Change Couche-Tard’s Calculus

The change to 7&I’s designation to core will paradoxically push Couche-Tard to firm up its revised offer. An undemanding valuation protects the...

Arun George

SHEIN and Temu: New Rule Could Crush "De Minimis" Imports | New Front In "War" Vs DTC Platforms

The Biden administration announced dramatic changes which could threaten SHEIN and Temu. Elsewhere, US & EU authorities launched efforts to test...

Tracking Traffic

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): State of Play

Couche-Tard will likely return with a revised offer, which the Board will find a reason to reject. A binding proposal remains unlikely. The...

Arun George

Some More Thoughts on Dollar General

After Dollar General’s (DG) disastrous earnings couple of weeks ago, I was quite concerned about their prospects in the near-term.

MBI Deep Dives

Select Sector Indices: Inflows to Apple, Palantir, Dell Will Add to SPX Buying

Constituent changes to the SPX and the market consultation proposals being adopted result in a round-trip trade of US$31.5bn. Apple and...

Brian Freitas

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