TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>MAUs beat, margins miss, guidance weak. Where / when is the operating leverage?</li>
<li>Podcasting business took a restructuring charge this quarter, not bullish for the business meant to expand gross margins.</li>
<li>TikTok reportedly readying a new streaming music app... not good.</li>
</ul>


MAUs beat, margins miss, guidance weak. Where / when is the operating leverage?
Podcasting business took a restructuring charge this quarter, not bullish for the business meant to expand gross margins.
TikTok reportedly readying a new streaming music app... not good.


<ul>
<li>Warner Music hired YouTube's Chief Business Officer Robert Kyncl as its new CEO, an impressive executive well positioned to expand music monetization to newer frontiers.</li>
<li>The stock has roundtripped its $25 June 2020 IPO price after doubling.</li>
<li>There is a compelling "comping the comp" catalyst path for 2023, as streaming revenues reaccelerate, and Kyncl renegotiates static licensing deals with Peloton, Tiktok, etc.</li>
</ul>


Warner Music hired YouTube's Chief Business Officer Robert Kyncl as its new CEO, an impressive executive well positioned to expand music monetization to newer frontiers.
The stock has roundtripped its $25 June 2020 IPO price after doubling.
There is a compelling "comping the comp" catalyst path for 2023, as streaming revenues reaccelerate, and Kyncl renegotiates static licensing deals with Peloton, Tiktok, etc.


Long Idea: Warner Music’s New CEO Could Prove a Catalyst

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>This model seeks short-sale candidates among companies that use aggressive accounting and/or exhibit deteriorating quality of earnings.  </li>
<li>They are typically highly idiosyncratic shorts and require thoughtful analyses of upcoming catalysts.  When the company’s issues become well-known, there is often multiple compression as well as a rerating.</li>
<li>These shorts can have high or low betas, valuations based on artificial earnings and exhibit good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.</li>
</ul>


This model seeks short-sale candidates among companies that use aggressive accounting and/or exhibit deteriorating quality of earnings.  
They are typically highly idiosyncratic shorts and require thoughtful analyses of upcoming catalysts.  When the company’s issues become well-known, there is often multiple compression as well as a rerating.
These shorts can have high or low betas, valuations based on artificial earnings and exhibit good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.


Earnings Quality Short Candidates: CELH, FTCH, WOLF, WMG

United States

Warner Music Group Corp. records and publishes music. The Company offers music recording, merchandising, sponsoring, touring, and artist management services. Warner Music Group serves customers worldwide.

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Warner Music Group (WMG US)

Spotify 3Q22: Another TikTok Victim?

Spotify had another murky quarter as margins continue to undershoot despite management talking about more cost discipline in this "new" cost of...

Aaron Gabin

Long Idea: Warner Music’s New CEO Could Prove a Catalyst

Warner Music's hiring of YouTube Chief Business Officer Robert Kyncl is an intriguing hire well positioned to increase Warner's monetization in...

Aaron Gabin

Earnings Quality Short Candidates: CELH, FTCH, WOLF, WMG

Earnings Quality shorts lead to idiosyncratic alpha. Today, we show our model rankings and highlight CELH, FTCH, WOLF, WMG.

Eric Fernandez, CFA

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