Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Beauty services in Hong Kong will pick up from the 21st of April 2022 post the reopening, due to pent-up demand and the disbursement of <a href="https://www.consumptionvoucher.gov.hk/en/newround.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Consumption Vouchers</a> by the government. </li>
<li>Despite losing three months of H1 2022 and a month of H2 2022, we believe that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/water-oasis-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17348:1" rel="noopener">Water Oasis (1161 HK)</a>  is still trading at 5.4x PE FY22e.</li>
<li>With an 80% payout ratio, the dividend yield is alluring at 16.4%. Net cash represents 38% of market capitalization. A year of uninterrupted operations implies a 3.8x PE. </li>
</ul>


Beauty services in Hong Kong will pick up from the 21st of April 2022 post the reopening, due to pent-up demand and the disbursement of Consumption Vouchers by the government. 
Despite losing three months of H1 2022 and a month of H2 2022, we believe that Water Oasis (1161 HK)  is still trading at 5.4x PE FY22e.
With an 80% payout ratio, the dividend yield is alluring at 16.4%. Net cash represents 38% of market capitalization. A year of uninterrupted operations implies a 3.8x PE. 


Water Oasis: A Double From Here, Brace for the Re-Opening of Hong Kong

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/water-oasis-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17348:1" rel="noopener">Water Oasis (1161 HK)</a> trades at a 6x FY22 ( Sept end ) PE with 31% of its market capitalization in cash ( implying ex-cash 4x PE ). </li>
<li>For FY21, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/water-oasis-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17348:1" rel="noopener">Water Oasis (1161 HK)</a> paid a 22 cent dividend implying a 12.43% dividend yield. We forecast a forward yield of 14%.</li>
<li>The company will continue to execute as it opens newer stores and beds down its M&amp;A for a 15% CAGR revenue growth.</li>
</ul>



Water Oasis (1161 HK) trades at a 6x FY22 ( Sept end ) PE with 31% of its market capitalization in cash ( implying ex-cash 4x PE ). 
For FY21, Water Oasis (1161 HK) paid a 22 cent dividend implying a 12.43% dividend yield. We forecast a forward yield of 14%.
The company will continue to execute as it opens newer stores and beds down its M&amp;A for a 15% CAGR revenue growth.


Water Oasis, Execution Makes It More Compelling

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/water-oasis-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17348:1" rel="noopener">Water Oasis (1161 HK)</a> is a micro-cap gem with the potential to provide a solid return over the next few months owing to a resurgence in beauty treatment in Hong Kong.  We believe the stock can easily double over the next 6 months due to the following catalyst:<ul>
<li>
Improved earnings outlook: With over 2.5 months of shutdowns in H1, we believe that the company is primed to grow its revenue and profitability in H2 2021. We forecast 450 mn HKD of revenue in H2 ( up from 315 mn HKD in H1 ), enabling the company to grow its profitability easily to 134 mn HKD in FY21 placing at 5.6x FY21.</li>
<li>
Huge margin of safety with cash representing 56% of the market capitalization: We believe this will provide ample buffer for the company to do M&amp;A as well as payout dividends.</li>
<li>
Great Dividend Payout Ratio Exceeding 80%: The company's dividend payout ratio exceeds 80% (at the very minimum), which implies a 14.3% dividend yield. </li>
<li>
Opportunity for M&amp;A: We believe with the state of the industry as beaten down as it is, the opportunity for M&amp;A is good, and the company has completed one transaction that we believe will be accretive. </li>
</ul>Risks<ul>
<li>Another Outbreak of Covid in HK which could result in shutdowns of their facilities.</li>
<li>This is a microcap and the company's investor communication is less, so it could take time for the story to play out.</li>
</ul>

Water Oasis (1161 HK) is a micro-cap gem with the potential to provide a solid return over the next few months owing to a resurgence in beauty treatment in Hong Kong.  We believe the stock can easily double over the next 6 months due to the following catalyst:

Improved earnings outlook: With over 2.5 months of shutdowns in H1, we believe that the company is primed to grow its revenue and profitability in H2 2021. We forecast 450 mn HKD of revenue in H2 ( up from 315 mn HKD in H1 ), enabling the company to grow its profitability easily to 134 mn HKD in FY21 placing at 5.6x FY21.

Huge margin of safety with cash representing 56% of the market capitalization: We believe this will provide ample buffer for the company to do M&amp;A as well as payout dividends.

Great Dividend Payout Ratio Exceeding 80%: The company's dividend payout ratio exceeds 80% (at the very minimum), which implies a 14.3% dividend yield. 

Opportunity for M&amp;A: We believe with the state of the industry as beaten down as it is, the opportunity for M&amp;A is good, and the company has completed one transaction that we believe will be accretive. 
Risks
Another Outbreak of Covid in HK which could result in shutdowns of their facilities.
This is a microcap and the company's investor communication is less, so it could take time for the story to play out.


Water Oasis - Micro Cap Gem with Great Return Potential

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Perfect Medical Health / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li>No company is perfect from an investing perspective, with Perfect Shape being no exception;</li>
<li>Meanwhile, there is a lot that long-term, quality-focused investors like us can like about the stock;</li>
<li>In particular, skillful capital allocation, promising growth prospects, a track record of outperforming competitors, and an attractive valuation can together lead to a long-term alpha opportunity with a margin of safety.</li>
</ul>


No company is perfect from an investing perspective, with Perfect Shape being no exception;
Meanwhile, there is a lot that long-term, quality-focused investors like us can like about the stock;
In particular, skillful capital allocation, promising growth prospects, a track record of outperforming competitors, and an attractive valuation can together lead to a long-term alpha opportunity with a margin of safety.


Perfect Shape Is Not Perfect But Here Is What We Like About It

<ul>
<li>Another victim of the pandemic, Tang Palace, appears attractive with a single-digit P/E and a juicy FCF yield based on pre-COVID financials;</li>
<li>However, investors should, by no means, draw their deep-value conclusion without a full examination of the business economics;</li>
<li>We employ the same framework as we did with other names previously to assess the value-trap risks.</li>
</ul>


Another victim of the pandemic, Tang Palace, appears attractive with a single-digit P/E and a juicy FCF yield based on pre-COVID financials;
However, investors should, by no means, draw their deep-value conclusion without a full examination of the business economics;
We employ the same framework as we did with other names previously to assess the value-trap risks.


Hong Kong

Water Oasis Group Limited distributes exclusively ~H2O+ brand skin-care products in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and China. The Company also operates spa centers under the Oasis Spa, Oasis Beauty, and Oasis Beauty Homme brand names.

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Water Oasis (1161 HK)

Water Oasis: A Double From Here, Brace for the Re-Opening of Hong Kong

Despite losing three months of H1 2022 and a month of H2 2022, we believe that Water Oasis (1161 HK) is still trading at 5.4x PE FY22e with a...

Sameer Taneja

Water Oasis, Execution Makes It More Compelling

Trading at 6x PE FY22e with a 14.3% forward dividend yield and 31% of the market capitalization in cash, Water Oasis represents a brilliant way to...

Sameer Taneja

Water Oasis - Micro Cap Gem with Great Return Potential

Water Oasis is a micro-cap gem with a 5.5x FY21 multiple and 56% of the market capitalization in cash with a potential 14% dividend yield

Sameer Taneja

Perfect Shape Is Not Perfect But Here Is What We Like About It

We think that Perfect Shape offers a long-term alpha opportunity with a margin of safety at the current level, even after a nearly 30% rally in the...

Steven Chen

Tang Palace: Deep Value or Value Trap

Current share price points to juicy yields on a pre-COVID basis, but is there any value trap? We examine business economics in detail.

Steven Chen

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