Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>High frequency data shows large US banks reporting loan growth at 2.5% YoY at 19 July week</li>
<li>This is far lower than where it was earlier this year at 8.2% YoY at 18 January week</li>
<li>Loan loss reserves for large banks are up ~18.3% YoY in each of the past 3 weeks</li>
</ul>


High frequency data shows large US banks reporting loan growth at 2.5% YoY at 19 July week
This is far lower than where it was earlier this year at 8.2% YoY at 18 January week
Loan loss reserves for large banks are up ~18.3% YoY in each of the past 3 weeks


US Banks - Loan Growth Moving Lower With Rising Provisions, Not Great Combination

<ul>
<li>High-Frequency data for balance sheets of US banks is just released</li>
<li>Contra-Asset account, loan loss reserves, rapid rise suggests far worse credit metrics </li>
<li>US banks can see hits on all fronts: volume, funding, credit costs, regulatory capital</li>
</ul>


High-Frequency data for balance sheets of US banks is just released
Contra-Asset account, loan loss reserves, rapid rise suggests far worse credit metrics 
US banks can see hits on all fronts: volume, funding, credit costs, regulatory capital


US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheet Data Suggests Rapid Growth Of Credit Costs

<ul>
<li>Weekly US bank data shows sharply decelerating loans at the largest 25 banks</li>
<li>Core to the economy are C&amp;I loans which are showing the pace of growth down 72%</li>
<li>Small US banks appear to be seeing off-balance sheet CRE loans moving on balance sheet</li>
</ul>


Weekly US bank data shows sharply decelerating loans at the largest 25 banks
Core to the economy are C&amp;I loans which are showing the pace of growth down 72%
Small US banks appear to be seeing off-balance sheet CRE loans moving on balance sheet


US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets Show Major Loan Deceleration

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Confidence in the US banking system has been under immense stress, and some contagion crossed the Atlantic and struck Europe as well.</li>
<li>At the moment, all banks are trading below their 52w highs – some more notably than others (median -25.82%).</li>
<li>Deposit flights are driven by the inverted yield curve and particularly regional banks are vulnerable to it.</li>
</ul>


Confidence in the US banking system has been under immense stress, and some contagion crossed the Atlantic and struck Europe as well.
At the moment, all banks are trading below their 52w highs – some more notably than others (median -25.82%).
Deposit flights are driven by the inverted yield curve and particularly regional banks are vulnerable to it.


Equity Watch: Fire-Sale or Outright Fire in US Bank Stocks

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Interest rate risk in the system increased with the Fed’s steep interest rate hikes and due to the opt-out for many US banks on the AFS securities market-to-market capital hit</li>
<li>Uninsured and concentrated deposits, at the first hint of bank trouble, can take flight very quickly especially in the case of concentrated, key elements of the Silicon Vally Bank collapse</li>
<li>We believe that it is premature to look for buy opportunities in US banks, although we believe that the largest US banks are sound in terms of their balance sheets</li>
</ul>


Interest rate risk in the system increased with the Fed’s steep interest rate hikes and due to the opt-out for many US banks on the AFS securities market-to-market capital hit
Uninsured and concentrated deposits, at the first hint of bank trouble, can take flight very quickly especially in the case of concentrated, key elements of the Silicon Vally Bank collapse
We believe that it is premature to look for buy opportunities in US banks, although we believe that the largest US banks are sound in terms of their balance sheets


US Bank Sector Stress – Old Fashioned Risks and a Regulatory Loophole Meet the Digital Age

United States

Wells Fargo & Company is a diversified financial services company providing banking, insurance, investments, mortgage, leasing, credit cards, and consumer finance.  The Company operates through physical stores, the Internet and other distribution channels across North America and elsewhere internationally.

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Wells Fargo & Co (WFC US)

US Banks - Loan Growth Moving Lower With Rising Provisions, Not Great Combination

Large US banks show far lower loan growth in new weekly data to 19 July with high growth in loan loss reserves. Still relatively high growth in CRE...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheet Data Suggests Rapid Growth Of Credit Costs

Weekly balance sheet data for US banks is released every Saturday and the data through 14 June suggests major worsening in credit metrics at large...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets Show Major Loan Deceleration

New weekly data from US banks shows sharp deceleration in loan growth at large banks, especially C&I loans, while small banks may be seeing off B/S...

Daniel Tabbush

Equity Watch: Fire-Sale or Outright Fire in US Bank Stocks

Confidence in the US banking system has been under stress, and contagion struck Europe as well. The troubles have for now been backstopped, but is...

Steno Research

US Bank Sector Stress – Old Fashioned Risks and a Regulatory Loophole Meet the Digital Age

US bank system strains reflects heightened interest rate risk, exacerbated by uninsured and concentrated deposits at a time of sharply rising...

Victor Galliano

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