Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index</a>.</li>
<li>Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-stock-exchange-weighted-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26056:1" rel="noopener">TWSE INDEX</a> has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.</li>
</ul>


Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). 
Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the KOSPI2 INDEX and KOSDAQ 150 Index.
Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the TWSE INDEX has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.


Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> has rejected an unsolicited non-binding privatisation proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle Corp (ALB US)</a> at A$2.50 per share, which is a 63.9% premium to the undisturbed price (27 March).</li>
<li>The offer is attractive in comparison to peer multiples and historical share prices. Liontown suggests that the offer does not appropriately value the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project.</li>
<li>A bump to the Board’s desired A$3.00 offer is justifiable based on the Kathleen Valley NPV sensitivity analysis related to spodumene prices. Albemarle remains willing to engage. </li>
</ul>



Liontown Resources (LTR AU) has rejected an unsolicited non-binding privatisation proposal from Albemarle Corp (ALB US) at A$2.50 per share, which is a 63.9% premium to the undisturbed price (27 March).
The offer is attractive in comparison to peer multiples and historical share prices. Liontown suggests that the offer does not appropriately value the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project.
A bump to the Board’s desired A$3.00 offer is justifiable based on the Kathleen Valley NPV sensitivity analysis related to spodumene prices. Albemarle remains willing to engage. 


Liontown Resources (LTR AU): A Bump to Albermale’s A$2.50 Offer Is Justifiable

<ul>
<li>The IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianqi-lithium-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27789:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/igo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:462:1" rel="noopener">IGO Ltd (IGO AU)</a> JV’s A$0.50 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/essential-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9645:1" rel="noopener">Essential Metals (ESS AU)</a> to be fair and reasonable as it is higher than its A$0.283-0.468 valuation. </li>
<li>Odey, the recent substantial shareholder, hoped for a competing proposal which has not materialised. On 10 March, Odey sold down 21% of its holding at A$0.48 per share.</li>
<li>Barring an unlikely competing proposal, this is done. At the last close price and for the 5 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.1% and 28.4%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The IE considers Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)/IGO Ltd (IGO AU) JV’s A$0.50 offer for Essential Metals (ESS AU) to be fair and reasonable as it is higher than its A$0.283-0.468 valuation. 
Odey, the recent substantial shareholder, hoped for a competing proposal which has not materialised. On 10 March, Odey sold down 21% of its holding at A$0.48 per share.
Barring an unlikely competing proposal, this is done. At the last close price and for the 5 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.1% and 28.4%, respectively.


Essential Metals (ESS AU): Tianqi/​IGO JV Scheme Meeting on 20 April

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>  is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison against some of its listed peers.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP)  is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO.
TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison against some of its listed peers.


Trial Holdings Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Leading in Growth, Lagging in Margins

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 10th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Newcrest Mining, Rio Tinto, Suncorp, Insurance Australia, Woodside Energy, Wesfarmer.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 10th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Newcrest Mining, Rio Tinto, Suncorp, Insurance Australia, Woodside Energy, Wesfarmer.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 10th): Newcrest, Rio Tinto, Suncorp, Insurance Australia,

Australia

Wesfarmers Ltd. owns retail chains, operates mines, writes insurance, manufactures and distributes industrial products, manufactures fertilizers and chemicals, and distributes liquefied petroleum gas and medical and industrial gases.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU)

Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

The Insight looks at movements in short interest across HK, Korea, Taiwan and Australia stocks over Q1 and highlights large increases/decreases in...

Brian Freitas

Liontown Resources (LTR AU): A Bump to Albermale’s A$2.50 Offer Is Justifiable

A bump to the Board’s desired A$3.00 offer is justifiable based on the Kathleen Valley NPV sensitivity analysis related to spodumene prices....

Arun George

Essential Metals (ESS AU): Tianqi/IGO JV Scheme Meeting on 20 April

Barring an unlikely competing proposal, this is done. At the last close price and for the 5 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.1%...

Arun George

Trial Holdings Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Leading in Growth, Lagging in Margins

Trial Holdings (5882 JP) is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

Sumeet Singh

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 10th): Newcrest, Rio Tinto, Suncorp, Insurance Australia,

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Newcrest Mining, Rio Tinto, Suncorp, Insurance...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

The Insight looks at movements in short interest across HK, Korea, Taiwan and Australia stocks over Q1 and highlights large increases/decreases in...

Brian Freitas

Liontown Resources (LTR AU): A Bump to Albermale’s A$2.50 Offer Is Justifiable

A bump to the Board’s desired A$3.00 offer is justifiable based on the Kathleen Valley NPV sensitivity analysis related to spodumene prices....

Arun George

Essential Metals (ESS AU): Tianqi/​IGO JV Scheme Meeting on 20 April

Barring an unlikely competing proposal, this is done. At the last close price and for the 5 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.1%...

Arun George

Trial Holdings Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Leading in Growth, Lagging in Margins

Trial Holdings (5882 JP) is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

Sumeet Singh

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 10th): Newcrest, Rio Tinto, Suncorp, Insurance Australia,

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Newcrest Mining, Rio Tinto, Suncorp, Insurance...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Essential Metals (ESS AU): Tianqi/IGO JV Scheme Meeting on 20 April