Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, Vedanta Resources</li>
<li>The UST curve twisted flatter marginally yesterday, with oil prices holding steady as markets await the outcome of US-Iran ceasefire negotiations. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.85%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 1 bp to 4.33%. Equities advanced for the fourth straight day, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.</li>
<li>US President Donald Trump has repeated threats to destroy Iran’s civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, if Tehran does not agree to a deal before 8 pm ET today. Mr Trump acknowledged a Pakistani-brokered proposal for a 45-day ceasefire, calling it a "significant step" but ultimately "not good enough", as any deal must include the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, Vedanta Resources
The UST curve twisted flatter marginally yesterday, with oil prices holding steady as markets await the outcome of US-Iran ceasefire negotiations. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.85%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 1 bp to 4.33%. Equities advanced for the fourth straight day, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.
US President Donald Trump has repeated threats to destroy Iran’s civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, if Tehran does not agree to a deal before 8 pm ET today. Mr Trump acknowledged a Pakistani-brokered proposal for a 45-day ceasefire, calling it a "significant step" but ultimately "not good enough", as any deal must include the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.


<ul>
<li>The UST curve twisted steeper around the 7Y on Friday. The yield on the 2Y UST fell 7 bps to 3.91%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 1 bp at 4.43%.</li>
<li>Equities tumbled and oil prices climbed on uncertainty over the length of the Middle East conflict and its impact on the global economy.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 fell 1.7% to 6,369, while the Nasdaq slumped 2.1% to 20,948.</li>
<li>Several Fed officials have expressed growing worries over inflation amid the Iran war. Fed Governor Michael Barr said the US central bank is well-positioned to hold rates steady, given considerable uncertainty about the potential effects of developments in the Middle East on the US economy, as well as the impact of tariffs on inflation. Fed Governor Lisa Cook opined that inflation currently poses the greater risk, due to the Iran war. Ms Cook added that the labour market is in balance, albeit precariously so. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said she is worried about the sustained transmission of higher fuel and fertiliser prices to inflation expectations. That said, Ms Paulson added that the fragile jobs market is unlikely to contribute to higher inflation, which is “tremendously valuable”. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin stated that the Fed’s progress on inflation “may be at risk of stalling”. He said that the oil price spike was the latest in a series of cost-increasing supply shocks following the COVID-19 pandemic, which included semiconductor chip shortages, the war in Ukraine and immigration enforcement. Mr Barkin also noted that the labour market “feels a bit fragile”, with job growth near zero even though the unemployment rate is at healthy levels.</li>
</ul>


The UST curve twisted steeper around the 7Y on Friday. The yield on the 2Y UST fell 7 bps to 3.91%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 1 bp at 4.43%.
Equities tumbled and oil prices climbed on uncertainty over the length of the Middle East conflict and its impact on the global economy.
The S&amp;P 500 fell 1.7% to 6,369, while the Nasdaq slumped 2.1% to 20,948.
Several Fed officials have expressed growing worries over inflation amid the Iran war. Fed Governor Michael Barr said the US central bank is well-positioned to hold rates steady, given considerable uncertainty about the potential effects of developments in the Middle East on the US economy, as well as the impact of tariffs on inflation. Fed Governor Lisa Cook opined that inflation currently poses the greater risk, due to the Iran war. Ms Cook added that the labour market is in balance, albeit precariously so. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said she is worried about the sustained transmission of higher fuel and fertiliser prices to inflation expectations. That said, Ms Paulson added that the fragile jobs market is unlikely to contribute to higher inflation, which is “tremendously valuable”. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin stated that the Fed’s progress on inflation “may be at risk of stalling”. He said that the oil price spike was the latest in a series of cost-increasing supply shocks following the COVID-19 pandemic, which included semiconductor chip shortages, the war in Ukraine and immigration enforcement. Mr Barkin also noted that the labour market “feels a bit fragile”, with job growth near zero even though the unemployment rate is at healthy levels.


<ul>
<li>West China Cement's (WCC) FY 2025 results were softer than expected, with revenues and EBITDA declining (both y-o-y and h-o-h) in H2.</li>
<li>In particular, the Mainland China business slumped in H2, albeit this followed a strong rebound in H1.</li>
<li>Moreover, earnings growth from WCC's overseas businesses slowed in H2 (vs. H1).</li>
</ul>


West China Cement's (WCC) FY 2025 results were softer than expected, with revenues and EBITDA declining (both y-o-y and h-o-h) in H2.
In particular, the Mainland China business slumped in H2, albeit this followed a strong rebound in H1.
Moreover, earnings growth from WCC's overseas businesses slowed in H2 (vs. H1).


West China Cement - Earnings Flash - FY 2025 Results - Lucror Analytics

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, Meituan, New World Development</li>
<li>UST yields rose for the third straight day, ending 3-4 bps higher across the curve. There appeared to be no major new catalysts, with oil prices stabilising after a two-day surge. Yields on the 2Y and 10Y UST rose 4 bps each to 3.55% and 4.10%, respectively. Equities recovered from Tuesday’s losses, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.8% and 1.3%, respectively.</li>
<li>In the US, the February ISM services index climbed to 56.1 (53.5 e / 53.8 p), the highest reading since mid-2022. The new orders subindex jumped to 58.6 (53.5 e / 56.1 p), while the employment sub-index increased to 51.8 (50.6 e / 50.3 p).</li>
<li>The prices paid sub-index eased to 63.0 (68.3 e / 66.6 p), the lowest reading since March 2025. Meanwhile, the February 2026 (final) S&amp;P services PMI fell to 51.7 (52.7 p), and the composite PMI declined to 51.9 (53.0 p). Separately, the ADP employment report showed that private sector payrolls rose 63 k in February (50 k e / 11 k revised p).</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, Meituan, New World Development
UST yields rose for the third straight day, ending 3-4 bps higher across the curve. There appeared to be no major new catalysts, with oil prices stabilising after a two-day surge. Yields on the 2Y and 10Y UST rose 4 bps each to 3.55% and 4.10%, respectively. Equities recovered from Tuesday’s losses, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.8% and 1.3%, respectively.
In the US, the February ISM services index climbed to 56.1 (53.5 e / 53.8 p), the highest reading since mid-2022. The new orders subindex jumped to 58.6 (53.5 e / 56.1 p), while the employment sub-index increased to 51.8 (50.6 e / 50.3 p).
The prices paid sub-index eased to 63.0 (68.3 e / 66.6 p), the lowest reading since March 2025. Meanwhile, the February 2026 (final) S&amp;P services PMI fell to 51.7 (52.7 p), and the composite PMI declined to 51.9 (53.0 p). Separately, the ADP employment report showed that private sector payrolls rose 63 k in February (50 k e / 11 k revised p).


Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 8.45% in September and 60.89% and 62.80% YTD and since launch one year ago.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by more than 40%.</li>
<li>The portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 3.23 YTD and has generated more than 40% of its returns from stock-picking (alpha).  Its beta is low at only 1.17.</li>
<li>At the end of September, we increased exposure to AI and robotics and sold positions in the consumer and finance sectors.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 8.45% in September and 60.89% and 62.80% YTD and since launch one year ago.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by more than 40%.
The portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 3.23 YTD and has generated more than 40% of its returns from stock-picking (alpha).  Its beta is low at only 1.17.
At the end of September, we increased exposure to AI and robotics and sold positions in the consumer and finance sectors.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (September 2025)

China

West China Cement is a leading manufacturer and supplier of cement and cement products, including ordinary Portland, oil well, and specialized cements, as well as aggregates and commercial concrete. Its products are primarily used in infrastructure projects and housing construction across China, Africa, and Central Asia. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Xi'an, Shaanxi province, China.

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West China Cement (2233 HK)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, Vedanta Resources

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, Longfor Group, Indika...

Lucror Analytics

West China Cement - Earnings Flash - FY 2025 Results - Lucror Analytics

West China Cement's (WCC) FY 2025 results were softer than expected, with revenues and EBITDA declining (both y-o-y and h-o-h) in H2.

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, Meituan, New World Development

Lucror Analytics

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (September 2025)

Due to the sudden escalation of US/China tensions we have decided to reduce AI and other risk exposure in the Hong Kong Alpha portfolio at the open...

David Mudd

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