Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>"Why Hold Japan?" is a question that recurs among foreign investors, now the greatest cohort of investors in Japanese stocks.  The question tends to arise much more during cyclical downturns, as investors reassess their holdings.  Japan's lukewarm economic expansion as well as uncertainty surrounding events overseas still compel investors to justify their Japan allocation with a sound investment thesis, even if there are no imminent plans for portfolio reallocation.  </p><p>As in the first installment of the series, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/why-hold-japan-part-i-relative-tax-regimes" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6854">Why Hold Japan, Part I: Relative Tax Regimes</a> , we once again focus on comparative metrics within the world's largest developed economies.  This time, we focus upon relative growth cycles and comparative valuation among G7 bourses.  On the macroeconomic side, we find Japan far less of an under-performer than it was at its cyclical trough in 2011-2012.  Aggregate index valuation metrics meanwhile show valuations in Japan to be far less inflated than in 2006 (mid expansion cycle) or 2011 (mid contraction cycle), while Return on Equity is much more in line with its G7 counterparts than in either of these historical periods.  There remain signals of greater longer-term under-valuation of smaller listed firms in particular among TOPIX constituents.</p>

"Why Hold Japan?" is a question that recurs among foreign investors, now the greatest cohort of investors in Japanese stocks.  The question tends to arise much more during cyclical downturns, as investors reassess their holdings.  Japan's lukewarm economic expansion as well as uncertainty surrounding events overseas still compel investors to justify their Japan allocation with a sound investment thesis, even if there are no imminent plans for portfolio reallocation.  As in the first installment of the series, Why Hold Japan, Part I: Relative Tax Regimes , we once again focus on comparative metrics within the world's largest developed economies.  This time, we focus upon relative growth cycles and comparative valuation among G7 bourses.  On the macroeconomic side, we find Japan far less of an under-performer than it was at its cyclical trough in 2011-2012.  Aggregate index valuation metrics meanwhile show valuations in Japan to be far less inflated than in 2006 (mid expansion cycle) or 2011 (mid contraction cycle), while Return on Equity is much more in line with its G7 counterparts than in either of these historical periods.  There remain signals of greater longer-term under-valuation of smaller listed firms in particular among TOPIX constituents.

Why Hold Japan, Part II: Comparative Valuation Among G7 Economies

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/015/810/original/ChartForeignInvestor.png?1478147665" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="15810"></figure><div class="content-caption">Foreign Investors are Top Shareholders (Source: JPX)</div><h2>Summary</h2><p>Foreign investors now form the largest cohort of investors in Japanese stocks, according to Tokyo Stock Exchange data.  Yet given Japan's deflationary dynamic, Japanese equities have demonstrated a tendency to disappoint investors in terms of Return on Equity.  "Why Hold Japan?" is a question that recurs among investors - in particular during cyclical downturns. Although there remains a degree of confidence in "Abenomics", uncertainty in…</p>

Foreign Investors are Top Shareholders (Source: JPX)SummaryForeign investors now form the largest cohort of investors in Japanese stocks, according to Tokyo Stock Exchange data.  Yet given Japan's deflationary dynamic, Japanese equities have demonstrated a tendency to disappoint investors in terms of Return on Equity.  "Why Hold Japan?" is a question that recurs among investors - in particular during cyclical downturns. Although there remains a degree of confidence in "Abenomics", uncertainty in…

Why Hold Japan, Part I: Relative Tax Regimes

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

<p><em><strong>We have earlier argued that the current M&amp;A in the container shipping industry is about "Survival" and not "Growth".</strong> </em></p><p><em>This morning from Japan, </em></p><blockquote><p><em>Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd., Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd., and Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha have agreed, after the resolution by the board of directors of each company held today, and subject to regulatory approval from the authorities, to establish a new joint-venture company to integrate the container shipping businesses (including worldwide terminal</em>…</p></blockquote>

We have earlier argued that the current M&amp;A in the container shipping industry is about "Survival" and not "Growth". This morning from Japan, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd., Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd., and Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha have agreed, after the resolution by the board of directors of each company held today, and subject to regulatory approval from the authorities, to establish a new joint-venture company to integrate the container shipping businesses (including worldwide terminal…

Container Shipping - "Survival" M&A In Full Swing, Japanese Big 3 Merge Container Operations

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/015/017/original/IRF_NewsShocks.png?1476919557" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="15017"></figure><div class="content-caption">"News Shocks" to the Japanese Economy (Source: Europacifica)</div><h2>Room for small hope amid bleak Japanese policy reform record</h2><p>Until now, our analysis of Japanese structural reform, centred upon raising Japanese productivity, has revealed few tendencies that might give us hope of an imminent and conclusive end to Japan's deflationary "lost decades" dynamic.  In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/structural-reform-i-the-japanese-financial-sector" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6375">Structural Reform I: The Japanese Financial Sector</a> we examined some of the structural characteristics within the financial sector that were…</p>

"News Shocks" to the Japanese Economy (Source: Europacifica)Room for small hope amid bleak Japanese policy reform recordUntil now, our analysis of Japanese structural reform, centred upon raising Japanese productivity, has revealed few tendencies that might give us hope of an imminent and conclusive end to Japan's deflationary "lost decades" dynamic.  In Structural Reform I: The Japanese Financial Sector we examined some of the structural characteristics within the financial sector that were…

Structural Reform III: Evidence of Bad Luck over Poor Policy

<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/why-overcoming-deflation-is-not-enough-part-iii-corporate-governance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6183">Why Overcoming Deflation Is Not Enough Part III: Corporate Governance</a>, we argued that corporate governance is pivotal to successful structural reform in Japan.  Noting that corporate governance is a weighty enough topic deserving of analysis in its own right, we reviewed some of the pivotal current debates on governance in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/corporate-governance-in-japan-what-s-at-stake" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6302">Corporate Governance in Japan: What’s at Stake</a>.  Now, with the goal of situating reforms to corporate governance within the context of the liability side of corporate balance sheets we take a step back for a brief examination of the structure of the Japanese financial sector.  </p><p>Our review of the financial sector keeps in mind at all times the interdependence between structural reform in the financial sector and capital market reform (inclusive of corporate governance).  In order to understand the importance of capital market (and thus corporate governance) reform, it is important to understand the limited reach of reforms to the Japanese financial sector, given the complementarity of bank lending and financing via capital markets.</p>

In Why Overcoming Deflation Is Not Enough Part III: Corporate Governance, we argued that corporate governance is pivotal to successful structural reform in Japan.  Noting that corporate governance is a weighty enough topic deserving of analysis in its own right, we reviewed some of the pivotal current debates on governance in Corporate Governance in Japan: What’s at Stake.  Now, with the goal of situating reforms to corporate governance within the context of the liability side of corporate balance sheets we take a step back for a brief examination of the structure of the Japanese financial sector.  Our review of the financial sector keeps in mind at all times the interdependence between structural reform in the financial sector and capital market reform (inclusive of corporate governance).  In order to understand the importance of capital market (and thus corporate governance) reform, it is important to understand the limited reach of reforms to the Japanese financial sector, given the complementarity of bank lending and financing via capital markets.

Structural Reform I: The Japanese Financial Sector

Japan

West Japan Railway Company provides rail transportation services including the shinkansen network (bullet train) in North Kyushu, Kinki, Chugoku, and Hokuriku including Kyoto and Osaka.  The Company also operates ferries in Miyajima, manages real estate, shopping centers, and hotels, and offers leisure-related services such as travel packaging products.

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West Japan Railway Co (9021 JP)

Why Hold Japan, Part II: Comparative Valuation Among G7 Economies

"Why Hold Japan?" is a question that recurs among foreign investors, now the greatest cohort of investors in Japanese stocks. The question tends...

Naomi Fink

Why Hold Japan, Part I: Relative Tax Regimes

SummaryForeign investors now form the largest cohort of investors in Japanese stocks, according to Tokyo Stock Exchange data. Yet given Japan's...

Naomi Fink

Container Shipping - "Survival" M&A In Full Swing, Japanese Big 3 Merge Container Operations

We have earlier argued that the current M&A in the container shipping industry is about "Survival" and not "Growth". This morning from...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Structural Reform III: Evidence of Bad Luck over Poor Policy

Room for small hope amid bleak Japanese policy reform recordUntil now, our analysis of Japanese structural reform, centred upon raising Japanese...

Naomi Fink

Structural Reform I: The Japanese Financial Sector

In Why Overcoming Deflation Is Not Enough Part III: Corporate Governance, we argued that corporate governance is pivotal to successful structural...

Naomi Fink

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