Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 adds and 3 deletes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in September. Plus there are capping and float changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 11.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.14bn. There are 16 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b2gold-corp-fee72de9-9219-4f08-9e4a-eff9db71e070" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33420:1" rel="noopener">B2Gold Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-american-silver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25399:1" rel="noopener">Pan American Silver</a> while the largest outflows are from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp-4566bc5d-6053-4c59-9b54-891e37079607" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33288:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cia-de-minas-buenaventura-saa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27674:1" rel="noopener">Cia de Minas Buenaventura SAA</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 adds and 3 deletes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September. Plus there are capping and float changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 11.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.14bn. There are 16 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The largest inflows are expected in B2Gold Corp, Evolution Mining and Pan American Silver while the largest outflows are from Kinross Gold and Cia de Minas Buenaventura SAA.


MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$1bn

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the September 2024 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 6th September 2024.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a final look at the flow expectations for each of these index changes.</li>
<li>We have also highlighted certain names with noticeable movements in short interest.</li>
</ul>


The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the September 2024 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 6th September 2024.
In this insight, we take a final look at the flow expectations for each of these index changes.
We have also highlighted certain names with noticeable movements in short interest.


Quiddity ASX Sep 24 Rebal: Two Big Surprises; Short Interest Trends; Stunning Trade Performance

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 23rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.7bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Westgold Resources, Charter Hall, Aristocrat Leisure.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 23rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.7bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Westgold Resources, Charter Hall, Aristocrat Leisure.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 23rd): Goodman, Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Westgold Resources

<ul>
<li>With 2 trading days left in the review period, there could be 30 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in September.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have hugely outperformed the forecast deletes. Borrow recall on the deletes and increased borrow availability on the adds could result in underperformance following announcement of the changes.</li>
</ul>


With 2 trading days left in the review period, there could be 30 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in September.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and S&amp;P/ASX 300.
The forecast adds have hugely outperformed the forecast deletes. Borrow recall on the deletes and increased borrow availability on the adds could result in underperformance following announcement of the changes.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We continue to expect one change for ASX 100 and two changes for ASX 200.</li>
<li>Separately, there could be 14 ADDs and 6 DELs for ASX 300.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
We continue to expect one change for ASX 100 and two changes for ASX 200.
Separately, there could be 14 ADDs and 6 DELs for ASX 300.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24: Trade Delivers Strong Return Again; 3 Days Remaining for Base Date

Australia

Westgold Resources Limited provides gold mining services. The Company owns and operates gold mining projects. Westgold Resources conducts its business in Australia.

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Westgold Resources (WGX AU)

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$1bn

2 adds and 3 deletes result in a 1-way turnover of 11.4% and a round-trip trade of US$1.14bn for the GDXJ. Kinross Gold is the big sell while...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity ASX Sep 24 Rebal: Two Big Surprises; Short Interest Trends; Stunning Trade Performance

Yancoal (YAL AU) and Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) will be added to both ASX 200 and ASX 300. These were the biggest surprises for the September 2024...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 23rd): Goodman, Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Westgold Resources

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Westgold...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes

There could be 30 changes for the ASX indices in September with a lot to trade for passive trackers. The adds have outperformed the deletes and...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24: Trade Delivers Strong Return Again; 3 Days Remaining for Base Date

The LONG ASX 200 & 300 Expected ADDs - SHORT ASX 200 & 300 Expected DELs trade has delivered a strong return of 11% since 23rd July (after...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$1bn

2 adds and 3 deletes result in a 1-way turnover of 11.4% and a round-trip trade of US$1.14bn for the GDXJ. Kinross Gold is the big sell while...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity ASX Sep 24 Rebal: Two Big Surprises; Short Interest Trends; Stunning Trade Performance

Yancoal (YAL AU) and Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) will be added to both ASX 200 and ASX 300. These were the biggest surprises for the September 2024...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 23rd): Goodman, Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Westgold Resources

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Westgold...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes

There could be 30 changes for the ASX indices in September with a lot to trade for passive trackers. The adds have outperformed the deletes and...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24: Trade Delivers Strong Return Again; 3 Days Remaining for Base Date

The LONG ASX 200 & 300 Expected ADDs - SHORT ASX 200 & 300 Expected DELs trade has delivered a strong return of 11% since 23rd July (after...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes