Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a>'s holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral Ltd (BLD AU)</a> continues to increase and that could lead to an index change at the June rebalance, if not earlier.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silver-lake-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6529:1" rel="noopener">Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/red-5-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7940:1" rel="noopener">Red 5 Ltd (RED AU)</a> merger could lead to an index change early June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a>'s acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a> could lead to another index change just ahead of the regular June rebalance.</li>
</ul>



Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)'s holding in Boral Ltd (BLD AU) continues to increase and that could lead to an index change at the June rebalance, if not earlier.
The Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU)/ Red 5 Ltd (RED AU) merger could lead to an index change early June.

Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)'s acquisition of CSR Ltd (CSR AU) could lead to another index change just ahead of the regular June rebalance.


ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Prior to the June Rebalance

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Suzhou Dongshan Precision A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish as long as $141.50 support on ACWI-US continues to hold. We discussed last week (2/26/26 Int'l Compass) to trim exposure to Korea and Taiwan...</li>
<li>...Noting for Korea that "with recent upside acceleration there is risk of a larger pullback following the current parabolic upside period."</li>
<li>That pullback has begun to materialize, and the growing list of concerns that we have highlighted since early-February remains a problem for global equities near-term</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish as long as $141.50 support on ACWI-US continues to hold. We discussed last week (2/26/26 Int'l Compass) to trim exposure to Korea and Taiwan...
...Noting for Korea that "with recent upside acceleration there is risk of a larger pullback following the current parabolic upside period."
That pullback has begun to materialize, and the growing list of concerns that we have highlighted since early-February remains a problem for global equities near-term


Pullback Offering Buying Opportunities; Crucial Support at $141.50 on ACWI-US Holding for Now

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The prospect of jumbo US rate cuts is juicing asset markets</li>
<li>Overseas Capital is starting to move into domestic Chinese equities</li>
<li>The Precious metals ETFs are breaking out -looking at laggards</li>
</ul>


The prospect of jumbo US rate cuts is juicing asset markets
Overseas Capital is starting to move into domestic Chinese equities
The Precious metals ETFs are breaking out -looking at laggards


Overview #32 – International Money Starts to Flow to Chinese Domestic Markets

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emmerson-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18705:1" rel="noopener">Emmerson Resources (ERM AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-african-resources-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23518:1" rel="noopener">Pan African Resources (PAF LN)</a>’s offer (0.1493 PAN CDI shares per ERM share) fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>Unusually, the IE’s valuation (A$0.087 to A$0.139) is well below the undisturbed price (A$0.33), apparently due to low liquidity and to the DCF valuation not factoring in all the reserves.</li>
<li>The key condition is ERM shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk as the substantial shareholders will be supportive (irrevocables or high premium to their price paid).</li>
</ul>


The Emmerson Resources (ERM AU) IE considers Pan African Resources (PAF LN)’s offer (0.1493 PAN CDI shares per ERM share) fair and reasonable.
Unusually, the IE’s valuation (A$0.087 to A$0.139) is well below the undisturbed price (A$0.33), apparently due to low liquidity and to the DCF valuation not factoring in all the reserves.
The key condition is ERM shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk as the substantial shareholders will be supportive (irrevocables or high premium to their price paid).


Emmerson Resources (ERM AU): Scheme Vote on 15 June

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regis-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20106:1" rel="noopener">Regis Resources (RRL AU)</a> entered into a merger through a scheme of arrangement. The consideration is 0.6937 RRL shares per VAU share.</li>
<li>The deal is largely about chasing scale rather than about operational synergies. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>, the long-rumoured suitor for Vault, is unlikely to get involved. </li>
<li>The key condition is Vault shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and benign shareholder structure.</li>
</ul>



Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU) and Regis Resources (RRL AU) entered into a merger through a scheme of arrangement. The consideration is 0.6937 RRL shares per VAU share.
The deal is largely about chasing scale rather than about operational synergies. Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), the long-rumoured suitor for Vault, is unlikely to get involved. 
The key condition is Vault shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and benign shareholder structure.


Vault Minerals (VAU AU): Regis Resources’ Strategically Sensible Merger

Australia

Westgold Resources Limited provides gold mining services. The Company owns and operates gold mining projects. Westgold Resources conducts its business in Australia.

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Westgold Resources (WGX AU)

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Prior to the June Rebalance

Upcoming M&A activity will result in ad hoc inclusions to the ASX200 prior to the June rebal. There could be 2-3 adds in the first few weeks of...

Brian Freitas

Pullback Offering Buying Opportunities; Crucial Support at $141.50 on ACWI-US Holding for Now

Pullback Offering Buying Opportunities; Crucial Support at $141.50 on $ACWI Holding for Now; Discussed to trim exposure to Korea $EWY and Taiwan...

Vermilion Research

Overview #32 – International Money Starts to Flow to Chinese Domestic Markets

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Chinese breakout and laggards in the precious metal space

Rikki Malik

Emmerson Resources (ERM AU): Scheme Vote on 15 June

This is a done deal as the scheme vote is low risk. At the last close and for a 1 July payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.0%/6.6%.

Arun George

Vault Minerals (VAU AU): Regis Resources’ Strategically Sensible Merger

The deal is largely about chasing scale rather than about operational synergies. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio...

Arun George

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