Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Newly released data in Australia suggests worsening earnings for banks in the coming 1-2 quarters at least, from both less credit volume and higher credit costs.</li>
<li>Retail sales figures are just out with the YoY change continuing to grind lower, now at only 1.45% with implications for credit card transactions and consumer underlying strength.</li>
<li>General Business Situation survey for next 6 months is now lower than its trough in year 2020. New median house price data shows negative growth for 3 consecutive quarters.</li>
</ul>


Newly released data in Australia suggests worsening earnings for banks in the coming 1-2 quarters at least, from both less credit volume and higher credit costs.
Retail sales figures are just out with the YoY change continuing to grind lower, now at only 1.45% with implications for credit card transactions and consumer underlying strength.
General Business Situation survey for next 6 months is now lower than its trough in year 2020. New median house price data shows negative growth for 3 consecutive quarters.


Australia Banks - New Data Suggests Weaker Profit, Primarily from Loan Volume & Credit Costs

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Star Entertainment Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU)</a> (SGR) plans to raise around US$480m (A$750m) via an entitlement offer cum institutional placement.</li>
<li>SGR undertook a similar sized raising earlier this year in Feb 2023, at a price which was double the current deal price.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU) (SGR) plans to raise around US$480m (A$750m) via an entitlement offer cum institutional placement.
SGR undertook a similar sized raising earlier this year in Feb 2023, at a price which was double the current deal price.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics.


Star Entertainment Entitlement+Placement - Would You Rescue Me? Again?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>During 1H24 CGF expects to sell its bank for ~AUD36m which could include a AUD11m gain and allow to free-up bank capital of around AUD40-50m.</li>
<li>Return on capital is now at the highest it has been since FY10 at 6.2% with a substantial 160bps increase in normalized ROE in 2H23 YoY to 13.1%</li>
<li>85% market share of annuity FUM from 50% about 10 years ago, operating in system with strong forced savings in superannution funds now at AUD3.5tr up 91% over 10 yrs.</li>
</ul>


During 1H24 CGF expects to sell its bank for ~AUD36m which could include a AUD11m gain and allow to free-up bank capital of around AUD40-50m.
Return on capital is now at the highest it has been since FY10 at 6.2% with a substantial 160bps increase in normalized ROE in 2H23 YoY to 13.1%
85% market share of annuity FUM from 50% about 10 years ago, operating in system with strong forced savings in superannution funds now at AUD3.5tr up 91% over 10 yrs.


Challenger (CGF AU) - Bank Sale 1H24 | ROC Highest in 23 Yrs | 85% Market Share Annuity FUM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 8th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Woodside Energy, Rio Tinto, Igo, NAB, Insurance Austra, Qbe Insurance, Ventia Services.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 8th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Woodside Energy, Rio Tinto, Igo, NAB, Insurance Austra, Qbe Insurance, Ventia Services.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 8th): BHP, Woodside Energy, Rio Tinto, Igo, NAB, Insurance Austra

Viva Energy Group  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viva-energy-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27220:1" rel="noopener">Viva Energy Group (VEA AU)</a>'s parent,  Vitol, aims to raise around US$460m via selling 15% of the company</li>
<li>The news of a possible selldown was leaked overnight in the local press and hence, the stock has corrected going into the placement.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Viva Energy Group (VEA AU)'s parent,  Vitol, aims to raise around US$460m via selling 15% of the company
The news of a possible selldown was leaked overnight in the local press and hence, the stock has corrected going into the placement.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Viva Energy Placement - News Leak Helps but It's Still a Big One to Digest

Australia

Westpac Banking Corporation offers general and savings banking services.  The Company provides investment portfolio management and advice, insurance services,  consumer finance, and money market services among other services.  Westpac Banking Corp. serves individuals, businesses, and corporations worldwide.

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Westpac Banking (WBC AU)

Australia Banks - New Data Suggests Weaker Profit, Primarily from Loan Volume & Credit Costs

New data is of concern for bank profit. Housing prices, business index, retail sales, suggest a worsening backdrop. Banks' credit costs in the most...

Daniel Tabbush

Star Entertainment Entitlement+Placement - Would You Rescue Me? Again?

Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU) (SGR) plans to raise around US$480m (A$750m) via an entitlement offer cum institutional placement. This will be...

Sumeet Singh

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 8th): BHP, Woodside Energy, Rio Tinto, Igo, NAB, Insurance Austra

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in BHP, Woodside Energy, Rio Tinto, Igo, NAB,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Viva Energy Placement - News Leak Helps but It's Still a Big One to Digest

Viva Energy Group (VEA AU)'s parent, Vitol, aims to raise around US$460m via selling 15% of the company. In this note, we talk about the deal...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Australia Banks - New Data Suggests Weaker Profit, Primarily from Loan Volume & Credit Costs

New data is of concern for bank profit. Housing prices, business index, retail sales, suggest a worsening backdrop. Banks' credit costs in the most...

Daniel Tabbush

Star Entertainment Entitlement+Placement - Would You Rescue Me? Again?

Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU) (SGR) plans to raise around US$480m (A$750m) via an entitlement offer cum institutional placement. This will be...

Sumeet Singh

Challenger (CGF AU) - Bank Sale 1H24 | ROC Highest in 23 Yrs | 85% Market Share Annuity FUM

Bank divestment in 1H24 can see gains, capital release, and better focus on life and funds. Improving returns are substantial, into a growing...

Daniel Tabbush

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 8th): BHP, Woodside Energy, Rio Tinto, Igo, NAB, Insurance Austra

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in BHP, Woodside Energy, Rio Tinto, Igo, NAB,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Viva Energy Placement - News Leak Helps but It's Still a Big One to Digest

Viva Energy Group (VEA AU)'s parent, Vitol, aims to raise around US$460m via selling 15% of the company. In this note, we talk about the deal...

Sumeet Singh