Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In February this year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ofx-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8376:1" rel="noopener">OFX (OFX AU)</a> announced a strategic review amid its 3Q26 trading update, to “explore a range of organic and inorganic opportunities” following “an increasing level of inbound interest”.</li>
<li>This morning the  international money transfer play announced it has entered into a transaction process deed with Equals Group, potentially leading to a A$1.00/share offer by way of a Scheme.</li>
<li>Equals Group has been granted four weeks of due diligence. OFX's board is unanimously supportive of terms, if firmed, which represent a 108% premium to undisturbed. </li>
</ul>


In February this year, OFX (OFX AU) announced a strategic review amid its 3Q26 trading update, to “explore a range of organic and inorganic opportunities” following “an increasing level of inbound interest”.
This morning the  international money transfer play announced it has entered into a transaction process deed with Equals Group, potentially leading to a A$1.00/share offer by way of a Scheme.
Equals Group has been granted four weeks of due diligence. OFX's board is unanimously supportive of terms, if firmed, which represent a 108% premium to undisturbed. 


OFX Group (OFX AU) Backs Equals Group's A$1/Share Indicative Offer

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
 <li>Challenger is the dominant leader in Australia's annuities market, uniquely positioned to benefit from the country's growing pool of retirement savings and aging population.</li>
 <li>The company's two complementary businesses, a highly-rated Life division providing annuities and a multi-boutique Funds Management arm (Fidante), offer both stability and diversification.</li>
 <li>Regulatory tailwinds, including the Retirement Income Covenant and potential changes to capital adequacy rules, are expected to increase demand for retirement income products and improve capital efficiency, directly benefiting Challenger's core business.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  Challenger is the dominant leader in Australia's annuities market, uniquely positioned to benefit from the country's growing pool of retirement savings and aging population.
  The company's two complementary businesses, a highly-rated Life division providing annuities and a multi-boutique Funds Management arm (Fidante), offer both stability and diversification.
  Regulatory tailwinds, including the Retirement Income Covenant and potential changes to capital adequacy rules, are expected to increase demand for retirement income products and improve capital efficiency, directly benefiting Challenger's core business.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Challenger Ltd (CGF AU) - Apr 2026

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Monthly data for job vacancies in Australia continues to weaken sequentially</li>
<li>Australian HFD on bankruptcies and insolvencies has been weak for some time</li>
<li>Risk is that credit metrics of Australian banks remain poor, continuing what we see for many at present</li>
</ul>


Monthly data for job vacancies in Australia continues to weaken sequentially
Australian HFD on bankruptcies and insolvencies has been weak for some time
Risk is that credit metrics of Australian banks remain poor, continuing what we see for many at present


Australia - Job Vacancies Data Continue To Weaken, Reminding Us of HFD Bankruptcies Data

<ul>
<li>Credit growth is persistently weak in Australia, and this is as good of a sign as any, of weak demand or / and worsening credit metrics. </li>
<li>Many other figures at the macro level point to weakness ahead (and now) for Australia's banks even if credit costs appear low.</li>
<li>WBC data on stressed corporate exposures shows all too well how migration can impact bad loans. BEN shows this too, with mortgage loans.</li>
</ul>


Credit growth is persistently weak in Australia, and this is as good of a sign as any, of weak demand or / and worsening credit metrics. 
Many other figures at the macro level point to weakness ahead (and now) for Australia's banks even if credit costs appear low.
WBC data on stressed corporate exposures shows all too well how migration can impact bad loans. BEN shows this too, with mortgage loans.


Australia Banks - Loan Growth Flat Line, Negative Building Approvals, WBC Credit Metrics Concerning

<ul>
<li>Australia domestic credit growth is now at -2.2% YoY in January 2024, the worst figure since August 2021. </li>
<li>There are negative implications for the delta of net interest income for Australia's banks as loan growth moves negative.</li>
<li>Risk of rising credit costs is higher, not only from worsening insolvencies with corporates, but also with rising mortgage bad loans. </li>
</ul>


Australia domestic credit growth is now at -2.2% YoY in January 2024, the worst figure since August 2021. 
There are negative implications for the delta of net interest income for Australia's banks as loan growth moves negative.
Risk of rising credit costs is higher, not only from worsening insolvencies with corporates, but also with rising mortgage bad loans. 


Australia Banks - Negative Loan Growth Reaches August 2021 Levels

Australia

Challenger Limited is an investment management firm  The Company offers annuities and other retirement income products as well as manages assets for domestic and international clients.

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Challenger Ltd (CGF AU)

Primer: Challenger Ltd (CGF AU) - Apr 2026

Challenger is the dominant leader in Australia's annuities market, uniquely positioned to benefit from the country's growing pool of retirement...

αSK Primers

Australia - Job Vacancies Data Continue To Weaken, Reminding Us of HFD Bankruptcies Data

Monthly job vacancies data continues to weaken, reminding us also of the well established HFD series on insolvencies. Risk for banks is continues...

Daniel Tabbush

Australia Banks - Loan Growth Flat Line, Negative Building Approvals, WBC Credit Metrics Concerning

Loan growth flat lining for a long time in Australia, with highly negative growth rates for building approvals, and WBC and BEN showing weakening...

Daniel Tabbush

Australia Banks - Negative Loan Growth Reaches August 2021 Levels

With NAB results and peers, it is worthwhile keeping in mind this HFD on insolvencies, which has been for some time, pointing to worsening credit...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

OFX Group (OFX AU) Backs Equals Group's A$1/Share Indicative Offer

Terms areindicative; although wording in the announcement is upbeat. Chunky downside. Trading at a 20%/53% gross/annual spread, if late Dec...

David Blennerhassett

Primer: Challenger Ltd (CGF AU) - Apr 2026

Challenger is the dominant leader in Australia's annuities market, uniquely positioned to benefit from the country's growing pool of retirement...

αSK Primers

Australia - Job Vacancies Data Continue To Weaken, Reminding Us of HFD Bankruptcies Data

Monthly job vacancies data continues to weaken, reminding us also of the well established HFD series on insolvencies. Risk for banks is continues...

Daniel Tabbush

Australia Banks - Loan Growth Flat Line, Negative Building Approvals, WBC Credit Metrics Concerning

Loan growth flat lining for a long time in Australia, with highly negative growth rates for building approvals, and WBC and BEN showing weakening...

Daniel Tabbush

Australia Banks - Negative Loan Growth Reaches August 2021 Levels

With NAB results and peers, it is worthwhile keeping in mind this HFD on insolvencies, which has been for some time, pointing to worsening credit...

Daniel Tabbush