Australia Short Interest (Q1 2024): A Recap

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Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Australia Banks / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Australia domestic credit growth is now at -2.2% YoY in January 2024, the worst figure since August 2021. </li>
<li>There are negative implications for the delta of net interest income for Australia's banks as loan growth moves negative.</li>
<li>Risk of rising credit costs is higher, not only from worsening insolvencies with corporates, but also with rising mortgage bad loans. </li>
</ul>


Australia domestic credit growth is now at -2.2% YoY in January 2024, the worst figure since August 2021. 
There are negative implications for the delta of net interest income for Australia's banks as loan growth moves negative.
Risk of rising credit costs is higher, not only from worsening insolvencies with corporates, but also with rising mortgage bad loans. 


Australia Banks - Negative Loan Growth Reaches August 2021 Levels