Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The latest Global Fund Manager Survey by Bank of America polled 179 global fund managers with a total NAV of USD503bn.</li><li>The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting partial recognition of the outcome, with Trump being elected US president and the Republican Party likely to have control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.</li><li>The survey reveals significant shifts in asset allocations in response to these developments. The shift is driven by the US economy showing stronger signs of a "no landing" scenario, while the global downward interest rate cycle appears less pronounced than previously expected. </li></ul>

The latest Global Fund Manager Survey by Bank of America polled 179 global fund managers with a total NAV of USD503bn.The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting partial recognition of the outcome, with Trump being elected US president and the Republican Party likely to have control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.The survey reveals significant shifts in asset allocations in response to these developments. The shift is driven by the US economy showing stronger signs of a "no landing" scenario, while the global downward interest rate cycle appears less pronounced than previously expected. 

FMS Outlook Following Trump's Victory as US President - November 19, 2024

<ul><li>KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to provide only short-term positive momentum.</li><li>However, the 2025E GDP growth outlook, projected at 2.8% (range: 2.3-3.3%), is seen as a negative guidance compared to the consensus estimate of 3.0%.</li><li>This reflects downside risks from global economic uncertainties, particularly in international trade, which is expected to be negatively impacted by Donald Trump's tariff hike policies. </li></ul>

KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to provide only short-term positive momentum.However, the 2025E GDP growth outlook, projected at 2.8% (range: 2.3-3.3%), is seen as a negative guidance compared to the consensus estimate of 3.0%.This reflects downside risks from global economic uncertainties, particularly in international trade, which is expected to be negatively impacted by Donald Trump's tariff hike policies. 

Economic Update: 3Q24 GDP Growth - Upbeat 3Q24 GDP Growth

<ul><li>We assign a Neutral rating to the industrial estate sector, considering the performance prospects of AMATA and WHA, which are expected to achieve a 7% CAGR and a 5% CAGR, respectively, from 2024-26E.</li><li>However, given that AMATA’s and WHA’s share prices have gained 1% and 17%, respectively, outperforming the SET over the past three months, we believe they already reflect increasing investment demand in Thailand.</li><li>Meanwhile, WHA is likely to revise its presales target in 2H24E and recognize major clients in the data center business in June-July.</li></ul>

We assign a Neutral rating to the industrial estate sector, considering the performance prospects of AMATA and WHA, which are expected to achieve a 7% CAGR and a 5% CAGR, respectively, from 2024-26E.However, given that AMATA’s and WHA’s share prices have gained 1% and 17%, respectively, outperforming the SET over the past three months, we believe they already reflect increasing investment demand in Thailand.Meanwhile, WHA is likely to revise its presales target in 2H24E and recognize major clients in the data center business in June-July.

Industrial Estate - Positive Impact of Geopolitical Risks Already Priced In

<ul><li>Asian bourses rebounded on the decrease in US bond yields, but the SET only climbed up limitedly before dropping sharply in the afternoon and briefly sank below 1,350 points as selling pressure targeted large cap stocks, such as energy, petrol and ICT shares.</li><li>However, the index was able to recover quickly to stay above 1,360 points, even though foreign investors kept selling.</li><li>The index initially saw a slight increase but then experienced a rapid and significant decline, indicating strong selling pressure.</li></ul>

Asian bourses rebounded on the decrease in US bond yields, but the SET only climbed up limitedly before dropping sharply in the afternoon and briefly sank below 1,350 points as selling pressure targeted large cap stocks, such as energy, petrol and ICT shares.However, the index was able to recover quickly to stay above 1,360 points, even though foreign investors kept selling.The index initially saw a slight increase but then experienced a rapid and significant decline, indicating strong selling pressure.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Although many Asian bourses bounced up, the SET sank sharply amid concerns that the Fed would maintain interest rates at a high level, alongside the surge of US bond yields, the posting of XD and escalating tensions in the Middle East.</li><li>As a result, a selling force quickly targeted large cap stocks, and foreign investors kept selling heavily, causing the index to get closer to the previous low at 1,350  points.</li><li>The index reverted to its previous sideways movement, opening a gap down and forming two consecutive black candlesticks.</li></ul>

Although many Asian bourses bounced up, the SET sank sharply amid concerns that the Fed would maintain interest rates at a high level, alongside the surge of US bond yields, the posting of XD and escalating tensions in the Middle East.As a result, a selling force quickly targeted large cap stocks, and foreign investors kept selling heavily, causing the index to get closer to the previous low at 1,350  points.The index reverted to its previous sideways movement, opening a gap down and forming two consecutive black candlesticks.

Thailand

WHA Corporation is a leading Thai company engaged in logistics, industrial development, utilities and power, digital services, and mobility businesses. It develops and manages industrial estates, ready-built factories and warehouses, and provides comprehensive solutions including water and wastewater management, and power generation. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Samut Prakan, Thailand.

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WHA Corporation (WHA TB)

FMS Outlook Following Trump's Victory as US President - November 19, 2024

The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting...

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update: 3Q24 GDP Growth - Upbeat 3Q24 GDP Growth

KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to...

Krungthai XSpring

Industrial Estate - Positive Impact of Geopolitical Risks Already Priced In

We assign a Neutral rating to the industrial estate sector, considering the performance prospects of AMATA and WHA, which are expected to achieve a...

Krungthai XSpring

Technical Analysis - APRIL 19, 2024

Asian bourses rebounded on the decrease in US bond yields, but the SET only climbed up limitedly before dropping sharply in the afternoon and...

Krungthai XSpring

Technical Analysis - APRIL 18, 2024

Although many Asian bourses bounced up, the SET sank sharply amid concerns that the Fed would maintain interest rates at a high level, alongside...

Krungthai XSpring

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