Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Gulf Energy Development  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Over a year of declining interest rates has saved SET-listed companies more than Bt14bn per quarter in interest expenses, as the effective interest rate fell from 4.6% in 3Q24 to 4.2% in 3Q25.</li><li>The policy rate cut from 2.50% in 3Q24 to 1.50% in 3Q25 has filtered through to listed companies, lowering their effective interest rate from its peak of 4.6% in 3Q24 to 4.2% in 3Q25.</li><li>The time-interest-earned (TIE) ratio, calculated as EBIT divided by interest expenses, rose from 2.4x in 4Q24 to 3.4x in 3Q25, while financial leverage declined from 1.7x in 4Q24 to 1.4x in 2Q25.</li></ul>

Over a year of declining interest rates has saved SET-listed companies more than Bt14bn per quarter in interest expenses, as the effective interest rate fell from 4.6% in 3Q24 to 4.2% in 3Q25.The policy rate cut from 2.50% in 3Q24 to 1.50% in 3Q25 has filtered through to listed companies, lowering their effective interest rate from its peak of 4.6% in 3Q24 to 4.2% in 3Q25.The time-interest-earned (TIE) ratio, calculated as EBIT divided by interest expenses, rose from 2.4x in 4Q24 to 3.4x in 3Q25, while financial leverage declined from 1.7x in 4Q24 to 1.4x in 2Q25.

Special Report - Lower Rates Lift SET 20063 EPS; Top Picks: GULF, BCPG, EGCO, LH

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>KTX expects the SET Index to remain volatile in December 2025, as this period marks a key turning point for several major factors that could influence both global and Thai equities—particularly upcoming policy meetings by major central banks (the Fed, BoJ, ECB, and Thailand’s MPC).</li><li>KTX recommends ADVANC, KBANK, KKP, SCB, and WHAUP for the portfolio.</li><li>We expect the Thai stock market to remain volatile in December 2025, as this period represents a key turning point for several factors that could shape market direction through the rest of 2025 and into early 1Q26.</li></ul>

KTX expects the SET Index to remain volatile in December 2025, as this period marks a key turning point for several major factors that could influence both global and Thai equities—particularly upcoming policy meetings by major central banks (the Fed, BoJ, ECB, and Thailand’s MPC).KTX recommends ADVANC, KBANK, KKP, SCB, and WHAUP for the portfolio.We expect the Thai stock market to remain volatile in December 2025, as this period represents a key turning point for several factors that could shape market direction through the rest of 2025 and into early 1Q26.

Monthly Report: December 2025: Outlook: Volatility During A Turning Point

<ul><li>We recommend cutting loss on MOSHI after its holding-period return dropped –6.2%, breaching the threshold.</li><li>Selling pressure in commerce stocks (M, MOSHI) pulled the portfolio’s average return down 0.09% from the previous day, lagging the SET, which rose 0.90%.</li><li>KTX’s Tactical Picks portfolio is constructed within SET100 Index constituents.</li></ul>

We recommend cutting loss on MOSHI after its holding-period return dropped –6.2%, breaching the threshold.Selling pressure in commerce stocks (M, MOSHI) pulled the portfolio’s average return down 0.09% from the previous day, lagging the SET, which rose 0.90%.KTX’s Tactical Picks portfolio is constructed within SET100 Index constituents.

KTX Tactical Picks - October 2, 2025 (Eng.)

<ul><li>TIDLOR and WHAUP have been added back to the KTX Tactical Portfolio.</li><li>Ongoing selling pressure in the banking sector dragged the portfolio’s average return down 0.49% from the previous day, while the SET managed to hold flat, supported by gains in DELTA.</li><li>Without DELTA’s +5.93% DoD rise, the SET would likely have fallen 0.84%.</li></ul>

TIDLOR and WHAUP have been added back to the KTX Tactical Portfolio.Ongoing selling pressure in the banking sector dragged the portfolio’s average return down 0.49% from the previous day, while the SET managed to hold flat, supported by gains in DELTA.Without DELTA’s +5.93% DoD rise, the SET would likely have fallen 0.84%.

KTX Tactical Picks - October 1, 2025 (Eng.)

<ul><li>The MPC's softer outlook for 2024E GDP growth, now projected within the range of 2.5-3.0%, will provide more leeway for the committee to maintain the policy interest rate above inflation, thereby ensuring a positive real interest rate.</li><li>Considering i) the current real interest rate at 3.6% (Thai policy rate at 2.5%, CPI at -1.1% YoY), the highest in 32 months and higher than the US real interest rate at 2.1% (US policy rate at 5.5% and CPI at +3.4% YoY); ii) the uncertain outlook for the Digital Wallet scheme, which may prevent Thai GDP growth in 2024E from reaching its full potential level; and iii) the divided vote (five to two) in the most recent meeting, there is a possibility that the MPC may reduce the policy interest rate in the future to stimulate the economy and bring economic growth back to its potential level.</li><li>This scenario would be positive for high dividend plays (BCP, PTT, TOP, WHAUP, SABINA and ADVANC) and the finance sector (SAWAD, MTC and TIDLOR) (Figure 9).</li></ul>

The MPC's softer outlook for 2024E GDP growth, now projected within the range of 2.5-3.0%, will provide more leeway for the committee to maintain the policy interest rate above inflation, thereby ensuring a positive real interest rate.Considering i) the current real interest rate at 3.6% (Thai policy rate at 2.5%, CPI at -1.1% YoY), the highest in 32 months and higher than the US real interest rate at 2.1% (US policy rate at 5.5% and CPI at +3.4% YoY); ii) the uncertain outlook for the Digital Wallet scheme, which may prevent Thai GDP growth in 2024E from reaching its full potential level; and iii) the divided vote (five to two) in the most recent meeting, there is a possibility that the MPC may reduce the policy interest rate in the future to stimulate the economy and bring economic growth back to its potential level.This scenario would be positive for high dividend plays (BCP, PTT, TOP, WHAUP, SABINA and ADVANC) and the finance sector (SAWAD, MTC and TIDLOR) (Figure 9).

Economic Update: MPC Holds Policy Interest Rate at 2.5%

Thailand

WHA Utilities and Power Public Company Limited offers utility services. The Company provides raw water procurement, wastewater treatment, power generation and distribution, industrial water distribution, waste management, and other services. WHA Utilities and Power serves customers in Thailand.

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WHA Utilities And Power (WHAUP TB)

Special Report - Lower Rates Lift SET 20063 EPS; Top Picks: GULF, BCPG, EGCO, LH

Over a year of declining interest rates has saved SET-listed companies more than Bt14bn per quarter in interest expenses, as the effective interest...

Krungthai XSpring

Monthly Report: December 2025: Outlook: Volatility During A Turning Point

KTX expects the SET Index to remain volatile in December 2025, as this period marks a key turning point for several major factors that could...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Tactical Picks - October 2, 2025 (Eng.)

Selling pressure in commerce stocks (M, MOSHI) pulled the portfolio’s average return down 0.09% from the previous day, lagging the SET, which rose...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Tactical Picks - October 1, 2025 (Eng.)

Ongoing selling pressure in the banking sector dragged the portfolio’s average return down 0.49% from the previous day, while the SET managed to...

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update: MPC Holds Policy Interest Rate at 2.5%

This scenario would be positive for high dividend plays (BCP, PTT, TOP, WHAUP, SABINA and ADVANC) and the finance sector (SAWAD, MTC and TIDLOR)

Krungthai XSpring

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