Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance.</li>
<li>We believe this sets the stage for a test of the 2089 all-time highs, and we expect a breakout which would complete a 10-year cup-and-handle pattern.</li>
<li>Gold and silver miners (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) are also breaking out -- overweight/add exposure. Now is an opportune time to get in on these fresh breakouts.</li>
</ul>


Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance.
We believe this sets the stage for a test of the 2089 all-time highs, and we expect a breakout which would complete a 10-year cup-and-handle pattern.
Gold and silver miners (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) are also breaking out -- overweight/add exposure. Now is an opportune time to get in on these fresh breakouts.


Miners Breaking Out, Buy Gold & Silver Miners NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, AUY, SSRM, BTG, WPM, PAAS, Others

<ul>
<li>Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.</li>
<li>We view this as a potential signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.</li>
<li>Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, not on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.</li>
</ul>


Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.
We view this as a potential signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.
Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, not on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.


Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Wheaton Precious Metals / Equity Bottom-Up

Gold and silver sales in Q421 were exactly in line with our forecasts, albeit this was expected given that Wheaton had updated the market with production and sales figures on 7 February. As a result, revenue, total cost of sales, earnings from operations, earnings before tax and net earnings (excluding a US$156.7m impairment reversal) were all within 1% of our prior expectations for the quarter.

Gold and silver sales in Q421 were exactly in line with our forecasts, albeit this was expected given that Wheaton had updated the market with production and sales figures on 7 February. As a result, revenue, total cost of sales, earnings from operations, earnings before tax and net earnings (excluding a US$156.7m impairment reversal) were all within 1% of our prior expectations for the quarter. 

Wheaton Precious Metals - Russia-free exposure to precious metals

On 7 February, Wheaton announced attributable production and sales statistics for FY21 plus guidance for FY22 and beyond to FY31. While (implied) production for Q421 was within 1% of our prior expectations, sales lagged production by c 12%. This is quite normal for a ‘typical’ quarter, but is slightly unusual for a fourth quarter, in which a ‘flush through’ effect is often observed as underlying operators look to clear out their sales pipelines. This under-sale of metal in Q4 has caused us to reduce our basic EPS forecast for FY21 by 2.9% to US$1.31/share, albeit we note that the consensus forecast has remained at US$1.34/share.

On 7 February, Wheaton announced attributable production and sales statistics for FY21 plus guidance for FY22 and beyond to FY31. While (implied) production for Q421 was within 1% of our prior expectations, sales lagged production by c 12%. This is quite normal for a ‘typical’ quarter, but is slightly unusual for a fourth quarter, in which a ‘flush through’ effect is often observed as underlying operators look to clear out their sales pipelines. This under-sale of metal in Q4 has caused us to reduce our basic EPS forecast for FY21 by 2.9% to US$1.31/share, albeit we note that the consensus forecast has remained at US$1.34/share.

Wheaton Precious Metals - Refining forecasts ahead of results

Wheaton Precious Metals  / Equity Bottom-Up

Notwithstanding a quarter in which COVID-19 related constraints continued to disrupt the industry and in which the palladium price showed notable weakness, Wheaton's Q3 financial and operational results were broadly in line with our prior expectations and have caused us to revise our earnings estimate for FY21 by no more than 0.5%. Revenue, earnings and cash flow for the first nine months of 2021 remained at record levels, as a result of which the company declared a relatively generous dividend of US$0.15/share, representing a 25% increase cf the prior year period.

Notwithstanding a quarter in which COVID-19 related constraints continued to disrupt the industry and in which the palladium price showed notable weakness, Wheaton's Q3 financial and operational results were broadly in line with our prior expectations and have caused us to revise our earnings estimate for FY21 by no more than 0.5%. Revenue, earnings and cash flow for the first nine months of 2021 remained at record levels, as a result of which the company declared a relatively generous dividend of US$0.15/share, representing a 25% increase cf the prior year period.

United States

Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. operates as a precious metals streaming company. The Company purchases silver and gold production from mines that it does not owns and operates. Wheaton Precious Metals serves customers worldwide.

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Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM US)

Miners Breaking Out, Buy Gold & Silver Miners NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, AUY, SSRM, BTG, WPM, PAAS, Others

#Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance....

Vermilion Research

Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

We are sticking with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically sound throughout this correction, not on areas that are just now spiking...

Vermilion Research

Wheaton Precious Metals - Russia-free exposure to precious metals

Gold and silver sales in Q421 were exactly in line with our forecasts, albeit this was expected given that Wheaton had updated the market with...

Edison Investment Research

Wheaton Precious Metals - Refining forecasts ahead of results

On 7 February, Wheaton announced attributable production and sales statistics for FY21 plus guidance for FY22 and beyond to FY31. While (implied)...

Edison Investment Research

Wheaton Precious Metals - Imperturbable

Notwithstanding a quarter in which COVID-19 related constraints continued to disrupt the industry and in which the palladium price showed notable...

Edison Investment Research

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