Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We listened to the <a href="https://whitehavencoal.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Whitehaven-Investor_update.mp4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">conference call </a>held by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whitehaven-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14253:1" rel="noopener">Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU)</a> to update investors on its acquisition of BHP's coking coal mines and  Q2 2024 production. </li>
<li>Based on spot prices of coking coal over 350 USD/ton and cash costs of 20% lower than the average of 2 years, the EV-EBITDA of acquisition is 1.8x</li>
<li>The acquisition could be massively accretive if coking coal prices remain stronger for longer as the company pivots its strategy to becoming a large met coal producer. </li>
</ul>


We listened to the conference call held by Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) to update investors on its acquisition of BHP's coking coal mines and  Q2 2024 production. 
Based on spot prices of coking coal over 350 USD/ton and cash costs of 20% lower than the average of 2 years, the EV-EBITDA of acquisition is 1.8x
The acquisition could be massively accretive if coking coal prices remain stronger for longer as the company pivots its strategy to becoming a large met coal producer. 


Whitehaven Coal: Great Acquisition, Cash Gone, Now At The Mercy of The Cycle

<ul>
<li>The pivot in capital allocation plans of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whitehaven-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14253:1" rel="noopener">Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU)</a> by suspending its buyback program (up to 25% of outstanding shares) is a big negative for us. </li>
<li>We think the increase in capex spending in a frothy pricing environment and focus on M&amp;A for spending the 2.6 bn of cash is a coin toss on capital allocation. </li>
<li>We prefer names that keep their capital allocation plans consistent, e.g., <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indo-tambangraya-megah-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15891:1" rel="noopener">Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ)</a>, and would take money off the table here.</li>
</ul>


The pivot in capital allocation plans of Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) by suspending its buyback program (up to 25% of outstanding shares) is a big negative for us. 
We think the increase in capex spending in a frothy pricing environment and focus on M&amp;A for spending the 2.6 bn of cash is a coin toss on capital allocation. 
We prefer names that keep their capital allocation plans consistent, e.g., Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ), and would take money off the table here.


Whitehaven Coal Suspension of Buyback: A Negative Despite Rising Coal Price/ Potential Acquisition

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whitehaven-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14253:1" rel="noopener">Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU)</a> released its June Quarterly. The company is in blackout (starting July 1st) till its release of annual results on August 24th, 2023.</li>
<li>June quarter OCF was 435 mn AUD ( Avg Coal Px 177 USD/ton), and net cash on the balance sheet was 2.65 bn AUD representing 45% of market capitalization.</li>
<li>To complete its buyback program, 147 million shares remain left to repurchase (current o/s shares 836 mn). 196 million shares have been repurchased so far since March 2022.</li>
</ul>



Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) released its June Quarterly. The company is in blackout (starting July 1st) till its release of annual results on August 24th, 2023.
June quarter OCF was 435 mn AUD ( Avg Coal Px 177 USD/ton), and net cash on the balance sheet was 2.65 bn AUD representing 45% of market capitalization.
To complete its buyback program, 147 million shares remain left to repurchase (current o/s shares 836 mn). 196 million shares have been repurchased so far since March 2022.


Whitehaven Coal June Quarterly: 45% of Mkt Cap in Cash, >20% OCF Yield, Aggressive Buyback

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whitehaven-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14253:1" rel="noopener">Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU)</a> guided down production in an update released yesterday by 5-10% from a range of 19-20 mnt to 18-19 mnt for FY23.</li>
<li>Net cash increased 300 mn AUD QoQ from 2.5 bn to 2.7 bn AUD representing 44% of market capitalization with 1.2 bn AUD of operating cash flow alone in Q3!</li>
<li>We agree an OCF yield of 80% (1.2 bn*4 qtrs on a six bn mkt cap) is unsustainable; the capital allocation possible on this name is mind-boggling. </li>
</ul>



Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) guided down production in an update released yesterday by 5-10% from a range of 19-20 mnt to 18-19 mnt for FY23.
Net cash increased 300 mn AUD QoQ from 2.5 bn to 2.7 bn AUD representing 44% of market capitalization with 1.2 bn AUD of operating cash flow alone in Q3!
We agree an OCF yield of 80% (1.2 bn*4 qtrs on a six bn mkt cap) is unsustainable; the capital allocation possible on this name is mind-boggling. 


Whitehaven Coal: Production Guide Down, Solid Support From Buybacks, 80% Annualized OCF Yield in Q3!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.</li>
<li>A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology</li>
</ul>


Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.
A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.
Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology


MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

Australia

Whitehaven Coal Limited mines and sells metallurgical and thermal coals to the global steel, power generation, and metallurgical industries.

Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU)

Whitehaven Coal: Great Acquisition, Cash Gone, Now At The Mercy of The Cycle

We provide our take on the recent acquisition of the coal assets of BHP by Whitehaven Coal. By consuming all its cash and taking on debt, the...

Sameer Taneja

Whitehaven Coal Suspension of Buyback: A Negative Despite Rising Coal Price/ Potential Acquisition

We provide a rationale for why we do not like Whitehaven Coal's suspension of its buy back program despite the strong coal price environment and...

Sameer Taneja

Whitehaven Coal June Quarterly: 45% of Mkt Cap in Cash, >20% OCF Yield, Aggressive Buyback

Whitehaven Coal has net cash of 2.65 bn AUD representing 45% of market capitalization on its balance sheet and >20% OCF. Despite subdued coal...

Sameer Taneja

Whitehaven Coal: Production Guide Down, Solid Support From Buybacks, 80% Annualized OCF Yield in Q3!

Whitehaven coal has accumulated 2.7 bn AUD of cash, representing 44% of its market capitalization. With a plan to buy back 25% of its outstanding...

Sameer Taneja

MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

MSCI ACWI, EURO $STOXX 50, $TOPIX Remain Bullish. $ACWI holding above short-term support at $102 (last week's breakout level), though we remain...

Vermilion Research