Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Australian banks’ November earnings triggered sharp and divergent share-price reactions, widening performance dispersion across the sector.</li>
<li>Based on the most recent moves, ANZ (ANZ AU) and Westpac (WBC AU) appear overvalued versus peers and potentially overbought, while two other banks screen as comparatively oversold.</li>
<li>Statistical analysis identifies sixteen actionable opportunities for quantitative traders targeting mean reversion plays within the sector.</li>
</ul>


Australian banks’ November earnings triggered sharp and divergent share-price reactions, widening performance dispersion across the sector.
Based on the most recent moves, ANZ (ANZ AU) and Westpac (WBC AU) appear overvalued versus peers and potentially overbought, while two other banks screen as comparatively oversold.
Statistical analysis identifies sixteen actionable opportunities for quantitative traders targeting mean reversion plays within the sector.


Relative Value in Australian Banks: ANZ/Westpac Overbought; Macquarie/Bendigo to Catch Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anz-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40898:1" rel="noopener">ANZ (ANZ AU)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macquarie-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:310:1" rel="noopener">Macquarie (MQG AU)</a> price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity. </li>
<li>
Highlights: Long Macquarie, short ANZ targets a 6% return. Friday's U.S. sell-off and today's ANZ’s strategy update could drive early trading volatility in the pair.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The ANZ (ANZ AU) vs. Macquarie (MQG AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity. 

Highlights: Long Macquarie, short ANZ targets a 6% return. Friday's U.S. sell-off and today's ANZ’s strategy update could drive early trading volatility in the pair.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Long Macquarie (MQG AU) Vs. Short ANZ (ANZ AU): Statistical Spread Hits Trigger Zone in Aussie Banks

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for ten prominent Australian stocks and the benchmark.</li>
<li>
Highlights: December implied volatility tends to be rich for the banks and cheap for the miners. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> implied volatility is cheap across the curve.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.</li>
</ul>



Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for ten prominent Australian stocks and the benchmark.

Highlights: December implied volatility tends to be rich for the banks and cheap for the miners. S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) implied volatility is cheap across the curve.

Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.


From Banks to Miners: Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility Across Australia

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently six pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently six pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (8 Sep)

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macquarie-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:310:1" rel="noopener">Macquarie Group (MQG AU)</a> over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-australia-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15:1" rel="noopener">National Australia Bank (NAB AU)</a> price-ratio has deviated two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: The pair is trading just at the border of the 2 standard deviation threshold which triggers the trade open signal. Monitor to find a good entry point.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Macquarie Group (MQG AU) over National Australia Bank (NAB AU) price-ratio has deviated two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: The pair is trading just at the border of the 2 standard deviation threshold which triggers the trade open signal. Monitor to find a good entry point.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Long Macquarie (MQG AU) Vs. Short NAB (NAB AU): A Quant-Driven Pair Trade

Australia

Macquarie Group Ltd. offers banking, financial advisory, investment and funds management services.  The Company offers financial advice, cash management, wealth management and private banking, life insurance, securities brokerage, corporate debt financing, real estate funds management, real estate development financing, investment funds management, and foreign exchange services.

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52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Macquarie Group (MQG AU)

Relative Value in Australian Banks: ANZ/Westpac Overbought; Macquarie/Bendigo to Catch Up

Earnings in November led to varying share-price reactions, with ANZ and Westpac outperforming. Statistical analysis identifies sixteen...

Gaudenz Schneider

Long Macquarie (MQG AU) Vs. Short ANZ (ANZ AU): Statistical Spread Hits Trigger Zone in Aussie Banks

Long Macquarie vs. Short ANZ: Mean-reversion setup targeting a 6% move, with near-term catalysts including ANZ’s strategy update and broader market...

Gaudenz Schneider

From Banks to Miners: Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility Across Australia

Volatility cones help evaluate options trading, showing Australian banks are rich and miners are cheap in December. Spot opportunities and manage...

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (8 Sep)

Statistical methodology identifies six pair trade opportunities in multiple markets and sectors, offering unique insights for investors.

Gaudenz Schneider

Long Macquarie (MQG AU) Vs. Short NAB (NAB AU): A Quant-Driven Pair Trade

The Macquarie vs. NAB price ratio signals a ~5% target return pair trade, ideal for quant traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Relative Value in Australian Banks: ANZ/Westpac Overbought; Macquarie/Bendigo to Catch Up

Earnings in November led to varying share-price reactions, with ANZ and Westpac outperforming. Statistical analysis identifies sixteen...

Gaudenz Schneider

Long Macquarie (MQG AU) Vs. Short ANZ (ANZ AU): Statistical Spread Hits Trigger Zone in Aussie Banks

Long Macquarie vs. Short ANZ: Mean-reversion setup targeting a 6% move, with near-term catalysts including ANZ’s strategy update and broader market...

Gaudenz Schneider

From Banks to Miners: Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility Across Australia

​Volatility cones help evaluate options trading, showing Australian banks are rich and miners are cheap in December. Spot opportunities and manage...

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (8 Sep)

​Statistical methodology identifies six pair trade opportunities in multiple markets and sectors, offering unique insights for investors.

Gaudenz Schneider

Long Macquarie (MQG AU) Vs. Short NAB (NAB AU): A Quant-Driven Pair Trade

The Macquarie vs. NAB price ratio signals a ~5% target return pair trade, ideal for quant traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Volatility cones help evaluate options trading, showing Australian banks are rich and miners are cheap in December. Spot opportunities and manage...

Statistical methodology identifies six pair trade opportunities in multiple markets and sectors, offering unique insights for investors.