Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whitehaven-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14253:1" rel="noopener">Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU)</a> underwhelming capital allocation in H1 2023 may have disappointed investors, but armed with a war chest of 2.47 bn AUD (35% mkt cap), we remain optimistic.</li>
<li>The company aims to purchase 240 mn shares ( or about 25% of outstanding shares ) over and above the 10% it completed from last year's buyback phase. </li>
<li>Trading at 2.2x/3.2x  FY23e/FY24e, the stock is extremely cheap with a conservative dividend yield of 9.1%/6.3% FY23e/FY24e ( assuming a 20% dividend-only payout ratio). </li>
</ul>



Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) underwhelming capital allocation in H1 2023 may have disappointed investors, but armed with a war chest of 2.47 bn AUD (35% mkt cap), we remain optimistic.
The company aims to purchase 240 mn shares ( or about 25% of outstanding shares ) over and above the 10% it completed from last year's buyback phase. 
Trading at 2.2x/3.2x  FY23e/FY24e, the stock is extremely cheap with a conservative dividend yield of 9.1%/6.3% FY23e/FY24e ( assuming a 20% dividend-only payout ratio). 


Whitehaven Coal - 35% of Mkt Cap Cash/ Aggressive Capital Allocation The Key

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 11th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Westpac, Woodside, Norther Star, ANZ, Aristocrat Leisure, New Hope, Rio Tinto.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 11th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Westpac, Woodside, Norther Star, ANZ, Aristocrat Leisure, New Hope, Rio Tinto.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 11th): Westpac, Woodside, Norther Star

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a>'s Second Court hearing is scheduled for 15 June and the stock is likely to stop trading at the close on that day. </li>
<li>Estimated passive tracker selling is 62m shares (A$809m; 31.2 days of ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a> and that could open up some arb opportunities.</li>
<li>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whitehaven-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14253:1" rel="noopener">Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU)</a> will be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coronado-global-resources-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27473:1" rel="noopener">Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN AU)</a> could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Crown Resorts (CWN AU)'s Second Court hearing is scheduled for 15 June and the stock is likely to stop trading at the close on that day. 
Estimated passive tracker selling is 62m shares (A$809m; 31.2 days of ADV) of Crown Resorts (CWN AU) and that could open up some arb opportunities.
We expect Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) will be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, while Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN AU) could be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 


Crown Resorts (CWN AU): Passive Sell Flow and Potential ASX100/200 Replacements

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P ASX June 2022 index changes were announced on 3rd June as I discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/s-p-asx-june-2022-rebalance-adds-are-mostly-mining-companies-dels-are-mostly-tech-financials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:71075" rel="noopener">S&amp;P ASX June 2022 Rebalance: ADDs Are Mostly Mining Companies; DELs Are Mostly Tech/Financials</a>.</li>
<li>With the Inclusion/Exclusion events expected to take place at the end of this week, below is a closer look at the price and volume performance of the candidates so far.</li>
<li>Separately, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a> could get deleted from ASX 100 and ASX 200 in the next few trading days and I have picked out the potential replacements.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P ASX June 2022 index changes were announced on 3rd June as I discussed in S&amp;P ASX June 2022 Rebalance: ADDs Are Mostly Mining Companies; DELs Are Mostly Tech/Financials.
With the Inclusion/Exclusion events expected to take place at the end of this week, below is a closer look at the price and volume performance of the candidates so far.
Separately, Crown Resorts (CWN AU) could get deleted from ASX 100 and ASX 200 in the next few trading days and I have picked out the potential replacements.


S&P/​ASX June 2022 Rebal Final Look and Crown Resorts Replacements

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4145:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)</a>’s independent board committee unanimously concluded that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yankuang-energy-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:384:1" rel="noopener">Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK)</a>’s H-Share CBs offer is not in the best interests of Yancoal’s minority shareholders. </li>
<li>Yankuang is open to continuing its discussions with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8427:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (3668 HK)</a> but maintains that the offer was based on long-term factors including expectations of future coal prices.</li>
<li>Overall, the wording of Yankuang’s response suggests that it is more inclined to bide its time rather than return with a better offer. Required FIRB approval remains an overhang.</li>
</ul>



Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)’s independent board committee unanimously concluded that Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK)’s H-Share CBs offer is not in the best interests of Yancoal’s minority shareholders. 
Yankuang is open to continuing its discussions with Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) but maintains that the offer was based on long-term factors including expectations of future coal prices.
Overall, the wording of Yankuang’s response suggests that it is more inclined to bide its time rather than return with a better offer. Required FIRB approval remains an overhang.


Yankuang’s Response Suggests that It Rather Wait than Improve Its Offer for Yancoal

Australia

Whitehaven Coal Limited mines and sells metallurgical and thermal coals to the global steel, power generation, and metallurgical industries.

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Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU)

Whitehaven Coal - 35% of Mkt Cap Cash/ Aggressive Capital Allocation The Key

Trading at 2.2x/3.2x FY23e/FY24e, the stock is extremely cheap with a conservative dividend yield of 9.1%/6.3% FY23e/FY24e ( assuming a 20%...

Sameer Taneja

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 11th): Westpac, Woodside, Norther Star

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Westpac, Woodside, Norther Star, ANZ, Aristocrat...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Crown Resorts (CWN AU): Passive Sell Flow and Potential ASX100/200 Replacements

Crown Resorts has received all reg approvals. The court hearing takes place 15 Jun & the stock could stop trading at the close. There will be large...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX June 2022 Rebal Final Look and Crown Resorts Replacements

A final look at the June 2022 rebalance trade for the S&P ASX Indices and a discussion on potential replacements for Crown Resorts

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Yankuang’s Response Suggests that It Rather Wait than Improve Its Offer for Yancoal

Yancoal unsurprisingly batted away Yankuang's low-ball offer. The wording in Yankuang's response suggests that it is unlikely to offer improved...

Arun George

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Whitehaven Coal - 35% of Mkt Cap Cash/ Aggressive Capital Allocation The Key

Trading at 2.2x/3.2x FY23e/FY24e, the stock is extremely cheap with a conservative dividend yield of 9.1%/6.3% FY23e/FY24e ( assuming a 20%...

Sameer Taneja

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 11th): Westpac, Woodside, Norther Star

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Westpac, Woodside, Norther Star, ANZ, Aristocrat...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Crown Resorts (CWN AU): Passive Sell Flow and Potential ASX100/200 Replacements

Crown Resorts has received all reg approvals. The court hearing takes place 15 Jun & the stock could stop trading at the close. There will be large...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​ASX June 2022 Rebal Final Look and Crown Resorts Replacements

A final look at the June 2022 rebalance trade for the S&P ASX Indices and a discussion on potential replacements for Crown Resorts

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Yankuang’s Response Suggests that It Rather Wait than Improve Its Offer for Yancoal

Yancoal unsurprisingly batted away Yankuang's low-ball offer. The wording in Yankuang's response suggests that it is unlikely to offer improved...

Arun George

S&P/ASX June 2022 Rebal Final Look and Crown Resorts Replacements