Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>With CHF last at 0.9033, we are +5% (unlevered) on the cross since the Fri Jan 16th call where it closed at 0.8587. I continue to believe and feel this is a big trade for the year, I am a lot more relaxed now that we are on the other side of the ECB and Greek election and think we are north of 1.02-1.05 in the 2nd half of the year </li><li>The size of ECB QE is not priced in – There is massive European Equities Upside!&nbsp;The case here is simple, we’ve just come out of a greater than anticipated QE from the ECB, that is open ended and set to run until Sep 2016.&nbsp;Whilst the market was more likely thinking we’d get a Euros 500-700bn handle, we got over a trillion euros worth, with a lot fewer parameters or caps than would have been expected by those pesky conservative Bundesbankers – who keep wanting to turn off the taps (I know I know, how dare they). </li></ul>

With CHF last at 0.9033, we are +5% (unlevered) on the cross since the Fri Jan 16th call where it closed at 0.8587. I continue to believe and feel this is a big trade for the year, I am a lot more relaxed now that we are on the other side of the ECB and Greek election and think we are north of 1.02-1.05 in the 2nd half of the year The size of ECB QE is not priced in – There is massive European Equities Upside!&nbsp;The case here is simple, we’ve just come out of a greater than anticipated QE from the ECB, that is open ended and set to run until Sep 2016.&nbsp;Whilst the market was more likely thinking we’d get a Euros 500-700bn handle, we got over a trillion euros worth, with a lot fewer parameters or caps than would have been expected by those pesky conservative Bundesbankers – who keep wanting to turn off the taps (I know I know, how dare they). 

The size of ECB QE is not priced in – Massive European Equities Upside

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In response to an AFR article, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aub-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11179:1" rel="noopener">AUB Group Limited (AUB AU)</a> confirmed that on 26 September, it received a non-binding proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eqt-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28922:1" rel="noopener">EQT (EQT SS)</a> at A$45.00.</li>
<li>While the offer represents an all-time high, it is arguably light compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. EQT's history of unsuccessful ASX tilts warrants some caution. </li>
<li>The Board has granted a six-week exclusive due diligence period, which ends on 20 November. The shareholder structure reduces the vote risk. </li>
</ul>


In response to an AFR article, AUB Group Limited (AUB AU) confirmed that on 26 September, it received a non-binding proposal from EQT (EQT SS) at A$45.00.
While the offer represents an all-time high, it is arguably light compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. EQT's history of unsuccessful ASX tilts warrants some caution. 
The Board has granted a six-week exclusive due diligence period, which ends on 20 November. The shareholder structure reduces the vote risk. 


AUB Group (AUB AU): EQT’s NBIO at A$45.00

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In the second quarter of 2025, Willis Towers Watson (WTW) reported a commendable financial performance, characterized by organic revenue growth and significant earnings per share (EPS) enhancements.</li>
<li>The company delivered a 5% organic growth, achieving an adjusted EPS of $2.86, a 20% increase from the previous year.</li>
<li>These results underscore WTW's effective strategic execution in a challenging macroeconomic climate, reflecting strong resilience amidst geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary pressures.</li>
</ul>


In the second quarter of 2025, Willis Towers Watson (WTW) reported a commendable financial performance, characterized by organic revenue growth and significant earnings per share (EPS) enhancements.
The company delivered a 5% organic growth, achieving an adjusted EPS of $2.86, a 20% increase from the previous year.
These results underscore WTW's effective strategic execution in a challenging macroeconomic climate, reflecting strong resilience amidst geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary pressures.


Willis Towers Watson: Combining Healthcare

<ul>
<li>On 22 August, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/psc-insurance-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24266:1" rel="noopener">Psc Insurance (PSI AU)</a> IE considered Ardonagh’s A$6.19 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the A$5.69 to A$6.65 valuation range. </li>
<li>The offer is conditional on shareholder approval of the scheme. No disinterested shareholder holds the 25% blocking stake. The scheme meeting is on 26 September.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high. At the last close and for the 11 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.3%/12.1%.</li>
</ul>


On 22 August, the Psc Insurance (PSI AU) IE considered Ardonagh’s A$6.19 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the A$5.69 to A$6.65 valuation range. 
The offer is conditional on shareholder approval of the scheme. No disinterested shareholder holds the 25% blocking stake. The scheme meeting is on 26 September.
The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high. At the last close and for the 11 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.3%/12.1%.


Writing about High Quality Companies, Enlightened Capital

Enlightened Capital

Writing about High Quality Companies

I have more than 8 years of investing experience across Equities and Fixed Income (Investment Grade/High Yield). I have largely focused on Financials, Energy, and Utilities professionally, but I am interested in exploring new sectors to find attractive opportunities. Right now, the Payments sector is occupying much of my time.

AON announced its acquisition of WLTW in early 2020, and the merger was set to close in 2H21, before the DOJ stepped in to block the deal. Shortly afterwards, AON and WLTW terminated their merger agreement, setting the stage for WLTW to turn around its business as a stand-alone company.

AON announced its acquisition of WLTW in early 2020, and the merger was set to close in 2H21, before the DOJ stepped in to block the deal. Shortly afterwards, AON and WLTW terminated their merger agreement, setting the stage for WLTW to turn around its business as a stand-alone company.

WLTW: A turnaround story or the continuation of prior challenges?

United States

Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company operates as an advisory, broking, and solutions company. The Company provides a range of insurance brokerage, reinsurance, and risk management consulting services. Willis Towers Watson serves customers worldwide.

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Willis Towers Watson (WTW US)

The size of ECB QE is not priced in – Massive European Equities Upside

With CHF last at 0.9033, we are +5% (unlevered) on the cross since the Fri Jan 16th call where it closed at 0.8587. I continue to believe and...

Kay Van-Petersen

AUB Group (AUB AU): EQT’s NBIO at A$45.00

While the offer represents an all-time high, it is arguably light compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples.

Arun George

Willis Towers Watson: Combining Healthcare

In the second quarter of 2025, Willis Towers Watson (WTW) reported a commendable financial performance, characterized by organic revenue growth and...

Baptista Research

PSC Insurance (PSI AU): A Done Deal

The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high. At the last close and for the 11 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.3%/12.1%.

Arun George

WLTW: A turnaround story or the continuation of prior challenges?

AON announced its acquisition of WLTW in early 2020, and the merger was set to close in 2H21, before the DOJ stepped in to block the deal. Shortly...

Enlightened Capital

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