Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We update Klarna’s pre-IPO valuation based on recent private share transactions and that of Stripe; Indian payments company Pine Labs is reputedly looking for an IPO valuation of USD6bn</li>
<li>Our 2H24 recommended shares performance was suboptimal; only two of our four longs delivered gains, and our short’s share price was strong in the “risk on” investor climate</li>
<li>We downgrade Shift4 to neutral, keeping PagSeguro as our core value pick along with European value play Nexi and US megacap Visa; we keep our sell rating on Affirm</li>
</ul>


We update Klarna’s pre-IPO valuation based on recent private share transactions and that of Stripe; Indian payments company Pine Labs is reputedly looking for an IPO valuation of USD6bn
Our 2H24 recommended shares performance was suboptimal; only two of our four longs delivered gains, and our short’s share price was strong in the “risk on” investor climate
We downgrade Shift4 to neutral, keeping PagSeguro as our core value pick along with European value play Nexi and US megacap Visa; we keep our sell rating on Affirm


Payment Companies – Key Picks and Potential IPOs in Focus

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>We've discussed since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the SPX (U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure</li>
<li>And we continue to see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
We've discussed since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the SPX (U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure
And we continue to see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025.


Buy the Pullback in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buys in Uranium, Transports, Services, Technology, More

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Wise operates centers in different countries for faster and cost-effective cross-border transactions</li><li>Strong track record of organic growth in a growing market with high Total Addressable Market</li><li>Recent stock declines attributed to cyclical factors, but investors optimistic about Wise's expanding product offerings and core FX payments supporting revenue growth</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.</em></p>

Wise operates centers in different countries for faster and cost-effective cross-border transactionsStrong track record of organic growth in a growing market with high Total Addressable MarketRecent stock declines attributed to cyclical factors, but investors optimistic about Wise's expanding product offerings and core FX payments supporting revenue growthThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

AngloGold Ashanti Spon Adr / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.</li>
<li>In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.
In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.


MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

<ul>
<li>In 2H23 our longs Visa and PagSeguro delivered positive returns, whilst PayPal was in negative territory; among our shorts, Kakao Pay was modestly successful, DLocal and Affirm continued to appreciate</li>
<li>We retain card network megacap Visa as a core holding, and keep PagSeguro and PayPal adding Cielo to the buy list</li>
<li>We keep our negative views on DLocal and Affirm, and remove Kakao Pay from the sell list for its less marked price-to-sales multiple valuation</li>
</ul>


In 2H23 our longs Visa and PagSeguro delivered positive returns, whilst PayPal was in negative territory; among our shorts, Kakao Pay was modestly successful, DLocal and Affirm continued to appreciate
We retain card network megacap Visa as a core holding, and keep PagSeguro and PayPal adding Cielo to the buy list
We keep our negative views on DLocal and Affirm, and remove Kakao Pay from the sell list for its less marked price-to-sales multiple valuation


Payment Companies – Our High Conviction Calls for 1H 2024

United Kingdom

Wise PLC designs and develops software solutions. The Company offers platform to make international multi-currency money transfers. Wise serves customers worldwide.

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Wise PLC (WISE LN)

Payment Companies – Key Picks and Potential IPOs in Focus

PagSeguro is our core value pick, Nexi and Visa are also buys, Affirm still rated a sell, Shift4 is now neutral. Updated Klarna and Stripe pre-IPO...

Victor Galliano

Buy the Pullback in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buys in Uranium, Transports, Services, Technology, More

Buy the Pullback in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; Still bullish on global equities with $ACWI and the SPX holding above their respective bases at $117 and...

Vermilion Research

Wise Plc (WPLCF) - Tuesday, Jul 2, 2024

Recent stock declines attributed to cyclical factors, but investors optimistic about Wise's expanding product offerings and core FX payments...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

MSCI EM Finally Joins the Rally; China/Hong Kong Continue to Improve; Downgrading Brazil to Market Weight; Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight;...

Vermilion Research

Payment Companies – Our High Conviction Calls for 1H 2024

In payments, we stick with Visa, PayPal and PagSeguro, adding Cielo to the buy list; we remain negative on DLocal and Affirm, removing Kakao Pay...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Payment Companies – Key Picks and Potential IPOs in Focus

PagSeguro is our core value pick, Nexi and Visa are also buys, Affirm still rated a sell, Shift4 is now neutral. ​Updated Klarna and Stripe pre-IPO...

Victor Galliano

Buy the Pullback in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buys in Uranium, Transports, Services, Technology, More

Buy the Pullback in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; Still bullish on global equities with $ACWI and the SPX holding above their respective bases at $117 and...

Vermilion Research

Wise Plc (WPLCF) - Tuesday, Jul 2, 2024

Recent stock declines attributed to cyclical factors, but investors optimistic about Wise's expanding product offerings and core FX payments...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

MSCI EM Finally Joins the Rally; China/Hong Kong Continue to Improve; Downgrading Brazil to Market Weight; Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight;...

Vermilion Research

Payment Companies – Our High Conviction Calls for 1H 2024

In payments, we stick with Visa, PayPal and PagSeguro, adding Cielo to the buy list; we remain negative on DLocal and Affirm, removing Kakao Pay...

Victor Galliano

PagSeguro is our core value pick, Nexi and Visa are also buys, Affirm still rated a sell, Shift4 is now neutral. Updated Klarna and Stripe pre-IPO...