Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At the January review, there are 2 changes to the IDX30 Index, 5 changes to the LQ45 Index, and 9 changes to the IDX30 Index.</li>
<li>Largest buying impact will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waskita-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15739:1" rel="noopener">Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>Largest selling impact will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ace-hardware-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pakuwon-jati-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8550:1" rel="noopener">Pakuwon Jati (PWON IJ)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-serpong-damai-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15498:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hm-sampoerna-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:617:1" rel="noopener">HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)</a>.</li>
</ul>


At the January review, there are 2 changes to the IDX30 Index, 5 changes to the LQ45 Index, and 9 changes to the IDX30 Index.
Largest buying impact will be on Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt, Emtek (EMTK IJ), Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ), BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) and XL Axiata (EXCL IJ). 
Largest selling impact will be on Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ), Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ), Pakuwon Jati (PWON IJ) , Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ) and HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ).


IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: BIG Impact Changes in Limited Time

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

The unsatisfactory 1H 2020 operating numbers that stemmed from lower revenue growth and higher excise taxes reduce operating cash flow, prompting the company to increase the amount of debt in the balance sheet that will further reduce the net income margin by 1.7 to 4% if the next six months' operating numbers will not improve. With the shift in the consumers' taste that reduces Dji-Sam-Soe's (HMSP's flagship product) sales, HMSP is not in the best position to outperform the potential weak consumption trend in the second half of 2020. If HMSP were to cut or forego dividends next year, it will accelerate the switch from HMSP to GGRM. 
HMSP's operating numbers are also very volatile compared to the steady GGRM's, yet the former seems to trade at a higher valuation in the Indonesian equity market compared to the latter albeit losing market share. Maintain underweight HMSP and overweight GGRM.

The unsatisfactory 1H 2020 operating numbers that stemmed from lower revenue growth and higher excise taxes reduce operating cash flow, prompting the company to increase the amount of debt in the balance sheet that will further reduce the net income margin by 1.7 to 4% if the next six months' operating numbers will not improve. With the shift in the consumers' taste that reduces Dji-Sam-Soe's (HMSP's flagship product) sales, HMSP is not in the best position to outperform the potential weak consumption trend in the second half of 2020. If HMSP were to cut or forego dividends next year, it will accelerate the switch from HMSP to GGRM. 
HMSP's operating numbers are also very volatile compared to the steady GGRM's, yet the former seems to trade at a higher valuation in the Indonesian equity market compared to the latter albeit losing market share. Maintain underweight HMSP and overweight GGRM. 

Sampoerna (HMSP): Losing From Higher Excise Tax

ASEAN Insight Provider

Jessica Irene

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

INDO Snippets brings together substantive and significant on the ground chatter that may potentially have a meaningful impact on the Indonesian Equity Market. 
Today on INDO Snippets:
<ul class="">
<li>The government is to directly allocate some of the tobacco excise tax to cover for Health and Social Security (BPJS) deficit. We'll discuss what it means for the hospitals, pharmaceuticals, and tobacco manufacturers.</li>
<li>An earthquake in Palu, Central Sulawesi has had a devastating impact on the region, with the death toll already exceeding 1,300 people.</li>
<li>Other corporate news: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5230" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1">Pt Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> share buyback and FMCG manufacturer Garudafood IPO.</li>
</ul>

INDO Snippets brings together substantive and significant on the ground chatter that may potentially have a meaningful impact on the Indonesian Equity Market. 
Today on INDO Snippets:

The government is to directly allocate some of the tobacco excise tax to cover for Health and Social Security (BPJS) deficit. We'll discuss what it means for the hospitals, pharmaceuticals, and tobacco manufacturers.
An earthquake in Palu, Central Sulawesi has had a devastating impact on the region, with the death toll already exceeding 1,300 people.
Other corporate news: Pt Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) share buyback and FMCG manufacturer Garudafood IPO.


Indo Snippets: Tobacco Tax for BPJS Deficit, Earthquake in Palu, LPPF Share Buyback, Garudafood IPO

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

<h2>Headlines</h2><ul>
<li>In 2016 volume sales of personal care appliances grow by 3% to reach 590,000 units</li>
<li>Personal care appliances continue to be purchased mainly by middle upper income households</li>
<li>Hair care appliances registers the strongest retail volume growth of 3%</li>
<li>Average unit prices increases by 2% in current terms</li>
<li>Procter &amp; Gamble Home Products Indonesia leads the category with a 22% share of volume sales</li>
<li>Over the forecast period personal care appliances set to record a volume CAGR of 3% to approach sales of…</li>
</ul>

Headlines
In 2016 volume sales of personal care appliances grow by 3% to reach 590,000 units
Personal care appliances continue to be purchased mainly by middle upper income households
Hair care appliances registers the strongest retail volume growth of 3%
Average unit prices increases by 2% in current terms
Procter &amp; Gamble Home Products Indonesia leads the category with a 22% share of volume sales
Over the forecast period personal care appliances set to record a volume CAGR of 3% to approach sales of…


Sector Capsule: Personal Care Appliances in Indonesia

ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

<ul><li>Our proprietary consumption scorecard reveals that Indonesia consumption in 2Q-4Q16 period is on the recovery path.</li><li>We expect the consumption recovery to progress into robust consumption state for 2017 due to 1) stronger lagged impact of 2016 rate cut, 2) rebound in commodity prices, and 3) better/stabilizing macro indicators such as inflation and unemployment rate</li><li>We prefer cyclical consumption theme; hence, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/46" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46">Astra International Tbk Pt (ASII IJ)</a> is our top pick in the overall consumer space. </li></ul>

Our proprietary consumption scorecard reveals that Indonesia consumption in 2Q-4Q16 period is on the recovery path.We expect the consumption recovery to progress into robust consumption state for 2017 due to 1) stronger lagged impact of 2016 rate cut, 2) rebound in commodity prices, and 3) better/stabilizing macro indicators such as inflation and unemployment rateWe prefer cyclical consumption theme; hence, Astra International Tbk Pt (ASII IJ) is our top pick in the overall consumer space. 

Hello Indo Consumption, How Are You Doing?

Indonesia

PT Wismilak Inti Makmur Tbk is a manufacturer of of premium brand cigarettes.

Wismilak Inti Makmur (WIIM IJ)

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: BIG Impact Changes in Limited Time

There are 2 changes to the IDX30, 5 to the LQ45, and 9 to the IDX80. There are a few large impact/flow names on the IDX30/LQ45 indices. The adds...

Brian Freitas

Sampoerna (HMSP): Losing From Higher Excise Tax

The unsatisfactory 1H 2020 operating numbers that stemmed from lower revenue growth and higher excise taxes reduce operating cash flow, prompting...

Henry Soediarko

Sector Capsule: Personal Care Appliances in Indonesia

Headlines In 2016 volume sales of personal care appliances grow by 3% to reach 590,000 units Personal care appliances continue to be purchased...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Hello Indo Consumption, How Are You Doing?

Our proprietary consumption scorecard reveals that Indonesia consumption in 2Q-4Q16 period is on the recovery path. We expect the consumption...

Johannes Salim, CFA

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: BIG Impact Changes in Limited Time

There are 2 changes to the IDX30, 5 to the LQ45, and 9 to the IDX80. There are a few large impact/flow names on the IDX30/LQ45 indices. The adds...

Brian Freitas

Sampoerna (HMSP): Losing From Higher Excise Tax

The unsatisfactory 1H 2020 operating numbers that stemmed from lower revenue growth and higher excise taxes reduce operating cash flow, prompting...

Henry Soediarko

Indo Snippets: Tobacco Tax for BPJS Deficit, Earthquake in Palu, LPPF Share Buyback, Garudafood IPO

INDO Snippets brings together substantive and significant on the ground chatter that may potentially have a meaningful impact on the Indonesian...

Jessica Irene

Sector Capsule: Personal Care Appliances in Indonesia

Headlines In 2016 volume sales of personal care appliances grow by 3% to reach 590,000 units Personal care appliances continue to be purchased...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Hello Indo Consumption, How Are You Doing?

Our proprietary consumption scorecard reveals that Indonesia consumption in 2Q-4Q16 period is on the recovery path. We expect the consumption...

Johannes Salim, CFA