Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Dell said "AI GPU shortage issue has been resolved. The lead time has been cut from 40 weeks by the end of 2023 to 8-12 weeks or less now.</li>
<li>We see this news short term positive but medium term negative to AI GPU supply chain vendors but need more information to confirm if this is an inflection point.</li>
<li>1. Taiwan Dell got priority supply? 2. Earlier overbooking over? 3. Lead time cut by supply upside? 4. Cooling company said the same; 5. Will lead time continue to shrink?</li>
</ul>


Taiwan Dell said "AI GPU shortage issue has been resolved. The lead time has been cut from 40 weeks by the end of 2023 to 8-12 weeks or less now.
We see this news short term positive but medium term negative to AI GPU supply chain vendors but need more information to confirm if this is an inflection point.
1. Taiwan Dell got priority supply? 2. Earlier overbooking over? 3. Lead time cut by supply upside? 4. Cooling company said the same; 5. Will lead time continue to shrink?


Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.</li>
<li>TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.</li>
<li>We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.</li>
</ul>


Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.
TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.
We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.


From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

<ul>
<li>After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors' capex cut not consistent with Nvidia's robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;</li>
<li>Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;</li>
<li>Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.</li>
</ul>


After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors' capex cut not consistent with Nvidia's robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;
Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;
Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.


What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 19th which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,728.3bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD18,944mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in Wt, Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Tatung, Lotes, TSMC, Mediatek, Umc, Alchip Tech, Wistron.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 19th which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,728.3bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD18,944mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Wt, Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Tatung, Lotes, TSMC, Mediatek, Umc, Alchip Tech, Wistron.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 19th): Wt, Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Tatung, Lotes, TSMC, Mediatek, Umc

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 19th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD79.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in TSMC, Wiwynn, Tatung, Umc, Teco Elec &amp; Mach, Quanta Computer, Wt, Bora Pharma.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 19th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD79.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in TSMC, Wiwynn, Tatung, Umc, Teco Elec &amp; Mach, Quanta Computer, Wt, Bora Pharma.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 19th): TSMC, Wiwynn, Tatung, Umc, Teco Elec & Mach, Quanta Computer

Taiwan

Wistron Corporation manufactures and markets notebook computers, personal computers, and other related information products.

Wistron Corp (3231 TT)

Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point?

Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point? We see this lead time cut news short term positive but long term negative to AI GPU supply chain...

Andrew Lu

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories? Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news already factored into the share price. We...

Andrew Lu

What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

Names to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025? Different from consensus, we expect non AI server market...

Andrew Lu

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 19th): Wt, Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Tatung, Lotes, TSMC, Mediatek, Umc

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Wt, Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Tatung, Lotes, TSMC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 19th): TSMC, Wiwynn, Tatung, Umc, Teco Elec & Mach, Quanta Computer

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in TSMC, Wiwynn, Tatung, Umc, Teco Elec & Mach,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM