Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Having digested yesterday’s published 1Q25 solid set of results and information that was shared during the company’s earnings call, we decided to stick to our neutral stance on the stock.</li>
<li>Although the company has proven to be rather resilient and performed better than expected in the current uncertain environment, we fear that the real test still lies ahead: the potential impact of the trade tariffs still has to kick in.</li>
<li>After all, a lot of the tariffs that were announced on ‘Liberation Day’ have been postponed for 90 days.</li>
</ul>


Having digested yesterday’s published 1Q25 solid set of results and information that was shared during the company’s earnings call, we decided to stick to our neutral stance on the stock.
Although the company has proven to be rather resilient and performed better than expected in the current uncertain environment, we fear that the real test still lies ahead: the potential impact of the trade tariffs still has to kick in.
After all, a lot of the tariffs that were announced on ‘Liberation Day’ have been postponed for 90 days.


<ul>
<li>ASM intends to declare a regular dividend of EUR 3.00 per share [FY23 EUR 2.75 per share].</li>
<li>Besides the company authorized a new repurchase program of up to EUR 150m within the 2025/26 timeframe.</li>
<li>ASM expects revenue in the range of EUR 810m to EUR 850m for 25Q1 [24Q1 EUR 639.0m], with a projected further increase in 25Q2 compared to 25Q1 [24Q2 EUR 706.1m]. </li>
</ul>


ASM intends to declare a regular dividend of EUR 3.00 per share [FY23 EUR 2.75 per share].
Besides the company authorized a new repurchase program of up to EUR 150m within the 2025/26 timeframe.
ASM expects revenue in the range of EUR 810m to EUR 850m for 25Q1 [24Q1 EUR 639.0m], with a projected further increase in 25Q2 compared to 25Q1 [24Q2 EUR 706.1m]. 


What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 26 February (ASM Int'l | Unilever | Wolters Kluwer | JDE Peet's)

<ul>
<li>Wolters Kluwer Financial &amp; Corporate Compliance (“FCC”) has signed an agreement to acquire Registered Agent Solutions, Inc. (“RASi”) for approximately USD 415m in cash.</li>
<li>The acquisition will expand the presence of FCC Legal Services (“CT Corporation”) with small businesses, middle-market companies and law firms in the U.S.</li>
<li>RASi serves thousands of customers across all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. </li>
</ul>


Wolters Kluwer Financial &amp; Corporate Compliance (“FCC”) has signed an agreement to acquire Registered Agent Solutions, Inc. (“RASi”) for approximately USD 415m in cash.
The acquisition will expand the presence of FCC Legal Services (“CT Corporation”) with small businesses, middle-market companies and law firms in the U.S.
RASi serves thousands of customers across all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. 


What's News in Amsterdam - 10 February 2025 (Wolters Kluwer | NX Filtration | Corporate agenda)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Engie remains our preferred implementation trade: confirmed inclusion, 19.3x ADV of estimated buying and 5.3% relative underperformance into the review cut-off.</li>
<li>Nokia faces 9.6x ADV of estimated buying, but its 10.5% relative outperformance into the cut-off leaves less room for an implementation trade.</li>
<li>WKL and VOW3 each face 6.0x ADV of estimated selling, but we would not chase either after their sharp post-announcement declines.</li>
</ul>


Engie remains our preferred implementation trade: confirmed inclusion, 19.3x ADV of estimated buying and 5.3% relative underperformance into the review cut-off.
Nokia faces 9.6x ADV of estimated buying, but its 10.5% relative outperformance into the cut-off leaves less room for an implementation trade.
WKL and VOW3 each face 6.0x ADV of estimated selling, but we would not chase either after their sharp post-announcement declines.


EURO STOXX 50: Engie Stands Out Into Implementation

Netherlands

Wolters Kluwer NV provides information services to professionals in the areas of legal, business, tax, accounting, finance, audit, risk, compliance and healthcare. The Company provides its customers information-enabled tools and software solutions to manage their business efficiently. Wolters Kluwer operates in over 40 countries in Europe, North America, Asia Pacific and Latin America.

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Wolters Kluwer Nv (WKL NA)

What's New(s) in Amsterdam

Having digested yesterday’s published 1Q25 solid set of results and information that was shared during the company’s earnings call, we decided to...

The IDEA!

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 26 February (ASM Int'l | Unilever | Wolters Kluwer | JDE Peet's)

ASM expects revenue in the range of EUR 810m to EUR 850m for 25Q1 [24Q1 EUR 639.0m], with a projected further increase in 25Q2 compared to 25Q1...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam - 10 February 2025 (Wolters Kluwer | NX Filtration | Corporate agenda)

Wolters Kluwer Financial & Corporate Compliance (“FCC”) has signed an agreement to acquire Registered Agent Solutions, Inc. (“RASi”) for...

The IDEA!

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

EURO STOXX 50: Engie Stands Out Into Implementation

The EURO STOXX 50 changes are confirmed. Price action around the review has left a strikingly uneven setup ahead of the 18 September implementation.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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