Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs led to significant declines in S&amp;P 500 (-3.5%) and Nasdaq-100 (-4.4%) futures, with the VIX spiking from 20.00 to 23.45.</li>
<li>
Impact on Australia: Australia faces a 10% tariff, with the overall economic impact expected to be limited.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> Response: The S&amp;P/ASX 200 dropped 2.1% in early trading, with its VIX index rising from 13.20 to 15.43. These are historically high but not extreme levels.</li>
</ul>



Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs led to significant declines in S&amp;P 500 (-3.5%) and Nasdaq-100 (-4.4%) futures, with the VIX spiking from 20.00 to 23.45.

Impact on Australia: Australia faces a 10% tariff, with the overall economic impact expected to be limited.

S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) Response: The S&amp;P/ASX 200 dropped 2.1% in early trading, with its VIX index rising from 13.20 to 15.43. These are historically high but not extreme levels.


S&P/ASX 200 Volatility Rises: Market Down Amid US Tariffs and S&P 500 Futures Plunge

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 21st (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Transurban, Woolworths, ANZ, Amcor, National Australia Bank, Westpac, Paladin Energy.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 21st (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Transurban, Woolworths, ANZ, Amcor, National Australia Bank, Westpac, Paladin Energy.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 21st): Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Transurban, Woolworths, ANZ, Amcor

<ul>
<li>The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to announce its Monetary Policy on 18 February. The current RBA rate stands at 4.35% with no change since 2024. </li>
<li>The market is expecting a 0.25% rate cut. Options expiring on 20 February provide an instrument to trade this event. </li>
<li>Option pricing is in-line with historical <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> moves on days after expected rate changes. Contrarians expecting no change might find value in put options.</li>
</ul>


The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to announce its Monetary Policy on 18 February. The current RBA rate stands at 4.35% with no change since 2024. 
The market is expecting a 0.25% rate cut. Options expiring on 20 February provide an instrument to trade this event. 
Option pricing is in-line with historical S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) moves on days after expected rate changes. Contrarians expecting no change might find value in put options.


Eqd | S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) - RBA Decision: Will the Anticipated Rate Cut Drive the Market?

<ul>
<li>Today, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> reached a new all-time high while implied volatility is near record low levels. The combination makes for a good opportunity to hedge.</li>
<li>Volatility assessment trough conventional volatility metrics and one new chart not seen anywhere else.</li>
<li>An actionable example of a put option hedge is presented, striking a balance between protection and cost.</li>
</ul>


Today, the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) reached a new all-time high while implied volatility is near record low levels. The combination makes for a good opportunity to hedge.
Volatility assessment trough conventional volatility metrics and one new chart not seen anywhere else.
An actionable example of a put option hedge is presented, striking a balance between protection and cost.


EQD | S&P/ASX 200 Option Strategy -  Today's All-Time-High Calls for Proactive Hedging

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telix-pharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26052:1" rel="noopener">Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU)</a> is the sole (and somewhat surprising) inclusion for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-equal-weight-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24297:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU)</a> in December.</li>
<li>The one inclusion, float changes and capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.5% leading to a round-trip trade of A$290m.</li>
<li>Shorts have increased in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telix-pharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26052:1" rel="noopener">Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU)</a> this year but there has been some covering in the stock recently.</li>
</ul>



Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) is the sole (and somewhat surprising) inclusion for the VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU) in December.
The one inclusion, float changes and capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.5% leading to a round-trip trade of A$290m.
Shorts have increased in Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) this year but there has been some covering in the stock recently.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add & Capping Leads to A$290m Trade

Australia

Woolworths Limited operates supermarkets, specialty and discount department stores, liquor and electronics stores throughout Australia.  Woolworths also manufactures processed foods, exports and wholesales food and offers petrol retailing.  The Company also operates hotels which includes pubs, food, accommodation, and gaming operations.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU)

S&P/ASX 200 Volatility Rises: Market Down Amid US Tariffs and S&P 500 Futures Plunge

S&P/ASX 200 drops 2.1% in early trading, while volatility increases from 13.2% to above 15.0%. Implied volatility is elevated, but not extreme by a...

Gaudenz Schneider

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 21st): Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Transurban, Woolworths, ANZ, Amcor

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Transurban, Woolworths, ANZ,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Eqd | S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) - RBA Decision: Will the Anticipated Rate Cut Drive the Market?

The RBA is expected to announce a 0.25% rate cut on 18 February, with options providing a trading opportunity for contrarians who believe there...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | S&P/ASX 200 Option Strategy - Today's All-Time-High Calls for Proactive Hedging

See an innovative and novel chart. Today's S&P/ASX 200 new all-time high in combination with record low volatility presents a good opportunity to...

Gaudenz Schneider

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add & Capping Leads to A$290m Trade

Telix Pharma is a surprise inclusion in December. The add, float and capping changes lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 5.5% and to a round...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P/ASX 200 Volatility Rises: Market Down Amid US Tariffs and S&P 500 Futures Plunge

S&P/ASX 200 drops 2.1% in early trading, while volatility increases from 13.2% to above 15.0%. Implied volatility is elevated, but not extreme by a...

Gaudenz Schneider

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 21st): Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Transurban, Woolworths, ANZ, Amcor

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Transurban, Woolworths, ANZ,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Eqd | S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) - RBA Decision: Will the Anticipated Rate Cut Drive the Market?

​The RBA is expected to announce a 0.25% rate cut on 18 February, with options providing a trading opportunity for contrarians who believe there...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | S&P/ASX 200 Option Strategy - Today's All-Time-High Calls for Proactive Hedging

See an innovative and novel chart. Today's ​S&P/ASX 200 new all-time high in combination with record low volatility presents a good opportunity to...

Gaudenz Schneider

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add & Capping Leads to A$290m Trade

Telix Pharma is a surprise inclusion in December. The add, float and capping changes lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 5.5% and to a round...

Brian Freitas

The RBA is expected to announce a 0.25% rate cut on 18 February, with options providing a trading opportunity for contrarians who believe there...

See an innovative and novel chart. Today's S&P/ASX 200 new all-time high in combination with record low volatility presents a good opportunity to...