Asian bank research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Asian bank research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The KOSPI Index has done well in recent weeks, months, but financials are hardly participating</li>
<li>There are vast differences amongst the financial in Korea, not only large Chaebol-like banks</li>
<li>Kakaobank, one of few listed internet banks in the world, is unique with ROA expansion</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI Index has done well in recent weeks, months, but financials are hardly participating
There are vast differences amongst the financial in Korea, not only large Chaebol-like banks
Kakaobank, one of few listed internet banks in the world, is unique with ROA expansion


APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Woori Financial Group  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>IMM PE, via Obis1, is looking to raise US$136m from selling a portion of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woori-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27995:1" rel="noopener">Woori Financial Group (316140 KS)</a>.</li>
<li>While the deal doesn't look particularly well-flagged, the PE has been invested for quite some time now. </li>
<li>Despite the overhang, the deal is a small one to digest at just 1.7% of total shares outstanding, representing 5 days of the firm’s ADV.</li>
</ul>


IMM PE, via Obis1, is looking to raise US$136m from selling a portion of its stake in Woori Financial Group (316140 KS).
While the deal doesn't look particularly well-flagged, the PE has been invested for quite some time now. 
Despite the overhang, the deal is a small one to digest at just 1.7% of total shares outstanding, representing 5 days of the firm’s ADV.


Woori Financial Placement - While the Overhang Remains, the Deal Would Be Easily Digested

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Given Korea's blanket ban on short-selling, we should concentrate on the likelihood of these ADRs being significantly discounted compared to their underlying shares.</li>
<li>It should persist for an extended period, highlighting the importance of continuously monitoring ADR spreads over the next 2-3 months to seize the opportune entry timing.</li>
<li>Since all these carry single-stock futures, a flexible setup targeting this spread can be designed, ideally incorporating currency hedges.</li>
</ul>


Given Korea's blanket ban on short-selling, we should concentrate on the likelihood of these ADRs being significantly discounted compared to their underlying shares.
It should persist for an extended period, highlighting the importance of continuously monitoring ADR spreads over the next 2-3 months to seize the opportune entry timing.
Since all these carry single-stock futures, a flexible setup targeting this spread can be designed, ideally incorporating currency hedges.


Trading Opportunities Targeting Potential ADR Discount Increases from Korea's Short-Selling Ban

<ul>
<li>The KDIC sold a 2.33% stake in Woori Financial through an after-hours block sale. From a passive flow perspective, this is quite similar to KSOE's HHI block deals yesterday.</li>
<li>Woori is likely to show a similar share price movement as HHI. Expectations for the passive inflow effect must have dissipated, and a short-term share price correction is now inevitable.</li>
<li>However, the passive inflow sizes are still too substantial. With this in mind, we need to consider a strategy that approaches this price correction as a re-entry opportunity.</li>
</ul>


The KDIC sold a 2.33% stake in Woori Financial through an after-hours block sale. From a passive flow perspective, this is quite similar to KSOE's HHI block deals yesterday.
Woori is likely to show a similar share price movement as HHI. Expectations for the passive inflow effect must have dissipated, and a short-term share price correction is now inevitable.
However, the passive inflow sizes are still too substantial. With this in mind, we need to consider a strategy that approaches this price correction as a re-entry opportunity.


Woori Financial Block Deals: Another Shares Let-Go Event for Passive Buying

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<div><p>Kakao Pay (KP), one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to listing, with Ant Financial holding the balance 45% stake.</p></div><div><p>As of 1H21, KP had a total of 36m users and around 20m monthly active users (MAU). It processed a total GMV of KRW66.9tn in 2020 and it had already generated KRW47.9tn GMV in 1H21 itself. As of the end of 1H21, it had dealings with more than 610,000 affiliated stores and 100 financial institutions.</p></div><div><p>Since spinning out from Kakao in 2017, the number of MAUs have grown 14x from 2Q17 to 2Q21, while the quarterly transaction amount grew 61x from KRW0.4tn in 2Q17 to KRW24.5tn in 2Q21. </p></div><div><p>Over the past few years the company has been expanding its offering beyond payment processing to include other financial products. On the back of this, its revenue has been growing faster than its GMV.</p></div><div>
<p>We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-guided-by-ant-financial-to-be-a-mini-ant" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Guided by Ant Financial to be a mini Ant </a>and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-peer-comparison-local-and-international" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Peer comparison - local and international</a>.</p>
<p>In this note we will talk about valuations and the latest announcement by the regulators.</p>
</div>

Kakao Pay (KP), one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to listing, with Ant Financial holding the balance 45% stake.As of 1H21, KP had a total of 36m users and around 20m monthly active users (MAU). It processed a total GMV of KRW66.9tn in 2020 and it had already generated KRW47.9tn GMV in 1H21 itself. As of the end of 1H21, it had dealings with more than 610,000 affiliated stores and 100 financial institutions.Since spinning out from Kakao in 2017, the number of MAUs have grown 14x from 2Q17 to 2Q21, while the quarterly transaction amount grew 61x from KRW0.4tn in 2Q17 to KRW24.5tn in 2Q21. Over the past few years the company has been expanding its offering beyond payment processing to include other financial products. On the back of this, its revenue has been growing faster than its GMV.
We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, Kakao Pay IPO - Guided by Ant Financial to be a mini Ant and  Kakao Pay IPO - Peer comparison - local and international.
In this note we will talk about valuations and the latest announcement by the regulators.


Kakao Pay IPO - Valuation and Likely Impact of Latest Announcement

South Korea

Woori Financial Group Inc. provides commercial banking services. The Company offers deposit services, loan services, bill services, settlement services, credit card, international, online banking, and other related services. Woori Financial Group also operates banking and retail banking businesses.

Woori Financial Group (WF US)

KOSPI Index - Banks Hardly Participating

KOSPI index has done well, but banks are hardly participating. Kakaobank may be most interesting given its ROA expansion and size, while Woori may...

Daniel Tabbush

Woori Financial Placement - While the Overhang Remains, the Deal Would Be Easily Digested

IMM PE, via Obis1, is looking to raise US$136m from selling a portion of its stake in Woori Financial Group (316140 KS).

Clarence Chu

Trading Opportunities Targeting Potential ADR Discount Increases from Korea's Short-Selling Ban

This post explores trading opportunities targeting potential ADR discount increases resulting from Korea's blanket ban on short selling.

Sanghyun Park

Woori Financial Block Deals: Another Shares Let-Go Event for Passive Buying

This post examines the Woori Financial Group block deals by the KDIC this morning, which should be another shares let-go event for passive buying,...

Sanghyun Park

Kakao Pay IPO - Valuation and Likely Impact of Latest Announcement

Kakao Pay, one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55%...

Sumeet Singh