IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/linklogis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31126:1" rel="noopener">Linklogis (LINK HK)</a> is a leading technology solution provider for supply chain finance in China. Its solutions optimise the payment cycle of supply chain transactions and digitalize the entire workflow of supply chain finance. Linklogis is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, CITIC Capital, GIC and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a>. Linklogis will launch an HKEx IPO to raise as much as $1 billion on Friday, according to press reports.</p></div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/linklogis-ipo-initiation-isupply" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47017" rel="noopener">Linklogis IPO Initiation: ISupply</a>, we stated that Linklogis is an attractive play on China’s supply chain finance market by combining a sensible monetisation model, high customer retention rate (good revenue visibility) and strong operating leverage. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/linklogis-ipo-every-little-helps" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49480" rel="noopener">Linklogis IPO: Every Little Helps</a>, we noted that based on the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments, we continue to believe that Linklogis’ fundamentals are attractive. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Linklogis' potential valuation. </p></div></div>

Linklogis (LINK HK) is a leading technology solution provider for supply chain finance in China. Its solutions optimise the payment cycle of supply chain transactions and digitalize the entire workflow of supply chain finance. Linklogis is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK), CITIC Capital, GIC and Standard Chartered (STAN LN). Linklogis will launch an HKEx IPO to raise as much as $1 billion on Friday, according to press reports.In Linklogis IPO Initiation: ISupply, we stated that Linklogis is an attractive play on China’s supply chain finance market by combining a sensible monetisation model, high customer retention rate (good revenue visibility) and strong operating leverage. In Linklogis IPO: Every Little Helps, we noted that based on the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments, we continue to believe that Linklogis’ fundamentals are attractive. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Linklogis' potential valuation. 

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Palantir Technologies  / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Palantir generated $93M more revenues this quarter then a year ago. From that $93M, the company generated $174M more in operating income, which swung its EBIT margins from (31%) to 32% YoY…adjusted EBITDA margins of course (there was $1B in incremental SBC). In any case, that is some sort of remarkable business. Especially for a software company that is building a direct sales force and theoretically needs to be investing heavily in R&amp;D to keep up with the competition. Palantir talks about generating insight through the fog of war, but in our short time analyzing this company, we can’t find our way through the fog.</p><p></p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Palantir generated $93M more revenues this quarter then a year ago. From that $93M, the company generated $174M more in operating income, which swung its EBIT margins from (31%) to 32% YoY…adjusted EBITDA margins of course (there was $1B in incremental SBC). In any case, that is some sort of remarkable business. Especially for a software company that is building a direct sales force and theoretically needs to be investing heavily in R&amp;D to keep up with the competition. Palantir talks about generating insight through the fog of war, but in our short time analyzing this company, we can’t find our way through the fog.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Palantir 4Q20 Earnings: The Greatest Operating Leverage Story Ever Told

<p>In 4Q20, Amazon turned in another sensational quarter, but essentially hasn’t moved since September as it has been “growing” into its valuation after a meteoric move in 1H20. In the past year, Amazon has spent an incremental $11.5B on COVID related costs (~10% of 2020 opex), increased the square footage of its logistics network’s square footage by 50%  and also added ~650,000 (!!!) employees, doubling its employee base in what also turns out to be the largest mobilization of workers in the US since World War II. And yet…since September 2, the stock is down 4% from its alltime high. We think Amazon is worth closer to $6,000 then $3,000 and think that it has potentially the same type of setup as last year when we began writing (on Smartkarma) about Amazon. In years after the company has huge capacity expansions, it tends to outperform as the operating leverage of capacity utilization shines through.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

In 4Q20, Amazon turned in another sensational quarter, but essentially hasn’t moved since September as it has been “growing” into its valuation after a meteoric move in 1H20. In the past year, Amazon has spent an incremental $11.5B on COVID related costs (~10% of 2020 opex), increased the square footage of its logistics network’s square footage by 50%  and also added ~650,000 (!!!) employees, doubling its employee base in what also turns out to be the largest mobilization of workers in the US since World War II. And yet…since September 2, the stock is down 4% from its alltime high. We think Amazon is worth closer to $6,000 then $3,000 and think that it has potentially the same type of setup as last year when we began writing (on Smartkarma) about Amazon. In years after the company has huge capacity expansions, it tends to outperform as the operating leverage of capacity utilization shines through.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

<ul>
<li>Founder-led Technology One has the capability to earn superior returns on capital while expanding predictably and profitably alongside a massive runaway, in our opinion.</li>
<li>Although the share seems a bit elevated at the moment, we feel that the name should be worth following among long-term, quality-focused investors who can wait patiently.</li>
</ul>


Founder-led Technology One has the capability to earn superior returns on capital while expanding predictably and profitably alongside a massive runaway, in our opinion.
Although the share seems a bit elevated at the moment, we feel that the name should be worth following among long-term, quality-focused investors who can wait patiently.


Technology One: Our Top SaaS Pick From APAC

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">A wrong hire, skills mismatch, and inadequate training equals low efficiency and lost productivity. Companies pay a significant price for not correctly managing talent. It does not stop there. Low transparency, missed opportunities, and weak management lead to frustration and dissatisfaction for employees. The result is a lack of motivation and employee exits. Both companies and employees suffer when talent is not </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">adequately managed</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">. Companies can scarcely afford to lose or </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">misallocate</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> the right people as the costs are enormous - lost productivity, lost business, and a dysfunctional environment that hurts from the top to bottom line. Talent management plays a critical role in the modern company, and in many cases, it can mean the difference between a successful culture and going out of business. Enter <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaonavi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29703:1" rel="noopener">Kaonavi Inc (4435 JP)</a> </span></p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/166/617/original/image_9811369031603321138858.png?1603321148" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="166617"></figure>

A wrong hire, skills mismatch, and inadequate training equals low efficiency and lost productivity. Companies pay a significant price for not correctly managing talent. It does not stop there. Low transparency, missed opportunities, and weak management lead to frustration and dissatisfaction for employees. The result is a lack of motivation and employee exits. Both companies and employees suffer when talent is not adequately managed. Companies can scarcely afford to lose or misallocate the right people as the costs are enormous - lost productivity, lost business, and a dysfunctional environment that hurts from the top to bottom line. Talent management plays a critical role in the modern company, and in many cases, it can mean the difference between a successful culture and going out of business. Enter Kaonavi Inc (4435 JP) 


Small Cap Growth: Kaonavi (4435) – Turning Talent into Teams

United States

Workday, Inc. provides enterprise cloud-based applications. The Company offers human capital, spend, and financial management, as well as payroll, initiatives and higher education solutions. Workday serves the finance, healthcare, manufacturing, education, and technology industries worldwide.

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Workday Inc Class A (WDAY US)

Linklogis IPO: Valuation First Look

Linklogis will launch an HKEx IPO to raise as much as $1 billion on Friday, according to press reports. In this note, we present our forecasts and...

Arun George

Palantir 4Q20 Earnings: The Greatest Operating Leverage Story Ever Told

Palantir's quarter, much like the rest of the company was perplexing. We believe the stock is overvalued even in the high 20s, and the coming...

Aaron Gabin

Amazon 4Q20: The GOAT Departs

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos is stepping down. We doubt he steps away. 2021 is a unique setup. Its the first time Amazon was up during a big capacity...

Aaron Gabin

Technology One: Our Top SaaS Pick From APAC

Although the share seems a bit elevated at the moment, we feel that Technology One should be worth following among long-term, quality-focused...

Steven Chen

Small Cap Growth: Kaonavi (4435) – Turning Talent into Teams

Talent management plays a critical role in the modern company, and in many cases, it can mean the difference between a successful culture and going...

Mark Chadwick

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