Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan maybe facing an unprecedented heat wave this fall, threatening retailers' profits as high-end seasonal items may not sell </li>
<li>Six major retailers, including Fast Retailing, are at risk of serious profit declines if the weather forecasts are accurate. That's a big "IF", but wait, there's more.</li>
<li>U.S. tariffs on clothing could devastate Fast Retailing's profits there, potentially forcing them to withdraw from the U.S. market.  </li>
</ul>


Japan maybe facing an unprecedented heat wave this fall, threatening retailers' profits as high-end seasonal items may not sell 
Six major retailers, including Fast Retailing, are at risk of serious profit declines if the weather forecasts are accurate. That's a big "IF", but wait, there's more.
U.S. tariffs on clothing could devastate Fast Retailing's profits there, potentially forcing them to withdraw from the U.S. market.  


Japanese Retailer Red Alert Is the Reddest Ever

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>What is the current consumer environment for brands and retailers? Households are increasingly worried about inflation and have already begun to cut back on spending significantly. </li>
<li>With further international turmoil, inflation caused by a weak Yen and high import costs, depressed sentiment may not be going away soon.</li>
<li>One counter to this is bonuses which rose in December. Many companies say they need to pay more to keep staff from taking jobs elsewhere as the labour shortage worsens.</li>
</ul>


What is the current consumer environment for brands and retailers? Households are increasingly worried about inflation and have already begun to cut back on spending significantly. 
With further international turmoil, inflation caused by a weak Yen and high import costs, depressed sentiment may not be going away soon.
One counter to this is bonuses which rose in December. Many companies say they need to pay more to keep staff from taking jobs elsewhere as the labour shortage worsens.


Japanese Consumers Update: Price Pressure Reducing Spending but Bonuses Up

<ul>
<li>The shakeout in clothing and fashion retailing continues, with most of the good fortune spread amongst a smaller group of either very large or very small retail chains and brands. </li>
<li>In specialty, lower cost national chains largely located in the suburbs continued to increase share but premium fashion retailers also had a great year boosting profits.</li>
<li>More dramatic was the startling growth of a few department stores which helped the format increase share of the apparel market for only the 4th time in 20 years.</li>
</ul>


The shakeout in clothing and fashion retailing continues, with most of the good fortune spread amongst a smaller group of either very large or very small retail chains and brands. 
In specialty, lower cost national chains largely located in the suburbs continued to increase share but premium fashion retailers also had a great year boosting profits.
More dramatic was the startling growth of a few department stores which helped the format increase share of the apparel market for only the 4th time in 20 years.


Japan Fashion Retailing: Stores Still Popular and Profit Soars for Some

<ul>
<li>Core inflation rates remain stubbornly high and real wages are still falling. </li>
<li>Surveys suggest one more major round of price hikes in October but the government still thinks prices will stabilise below its 2% target by the end of the year.</li>
<li>The increases are lowering consumer confidence – bad news for most retailers, although major discount chains are making hay while the sun, well, doesn’t shine.</li>
</ul>


Core inflation rates remain stubbornly high and real wages are still falling. 
Surveys suggest one more major round of price hikes in October but the government still thinks prices will stabilise below its 2% target by the end of the year.
The increases are lowering consumer confidence – bad news for most retailers, although major discount chains are making hay while the sun, well, doesn’t shine.


Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

<ul>
<li>The clothing sections of GMS chains and supermarkets have declined so far in relevance that most assume the format will disappear entirely. </li>
<li>But new efforts by Aeon, as well as collaborations by the likes of Ito-Yokado, could lead to a new lease of life and higher margins.</li>
<li>This may impact on retailers like Shimamura but the more likely result will be new opportunities to takeover supermarket apparel floors as Adastria is doing already.</li>
</ul>


The clothing sections of GMS chains and supermarkets have declined so far in relevance that most assume the format will disappear entirely. 
But new efforts by Aeon, as well as collaborations by the likes of Ito-Yokado, could lead to a new lease of life and higher margins.
This may impact on retailers like Shimamura but the more likely result will be new opportunities to takeover supermarket apparel floors as Adastria is doing already.


Japan

WORKMAN CO., LTD. designs, produces, and retails work uniforms and related goods including work gloves and safety shoes.  The Company operates its own stores and franchise stores located throughout eastern Japan.

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Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP)

Japanese Retailer Red Alert Is the Reddest Ever

Japan's retailers face profit decline due to potential heat wave this fall; U.S. tariffs likely to do far more damage to Fast Retailing's profits...

Michael Allen

Japanese Consumers Update: Price Pressure Reducing Spending but Bonuses Up

Households are cutting back on spending due to inflation worries, while companies are increasing bonuses to retain staff amidst a labor shortage –...

Michael Causton

Japan Fashion Retailing: Stores Still Popular and Profit Soars for Some

A major review of Japanese clothing retail markets: the ongoing shakeout benefits large and small chains, but profit growth across the sector is...

Michael Causton

Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

Japanese consumer markets have three big trends: higher prices/squeezed incomes, doubling of single households and more people feeling the pinch....

Michael Causton

A Supermarket Clothing Revival in Japan?

GMS chains and supermarkets are reviving their clothing sections, potentially creating new opportunities for higher margins at GMS operations.

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japanese Retailer Red Alert Is the Reddest Ever

​Japan's retailers face profit decline due to potential heat wave this fall; U.S. tariffs likely to do far more damage to Fast Retailing's profits...

Michael Allen

Japanese Consumers Update: Price Pressure Reducing Spending but Bonuses Up

​Households are cutting back on spending due to inflation worries, while companies are increasing bonuses to retain staff amidst a labor shortage –...

Michael Causton

Japan Fashion Retailing: Stores Still Popular and Profit Soars for Some

A major review of Japanese clothing retail markets: ​the ongoing shakeout benefits large and small chains, but profit growth across the sector is...

Michael Causton

Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

Japanese consumer markets have three big trends: higher prices/squeezed incomes, doubling of single households and more people feeling the pinch....

Michael Causton

A Supermarket Clothing Revival in Japan?

​GMS chains and supermarkets are reviving their clothing sections, potentially creating new opportunities for higher margins at GMS operations.

Michael Causton

Japan's retailers face profit decline due to potential heat wave this fall; U.S. tariffs likely to do far more damage to Fast Retailing's profits...

Households are cutting back on spending due to inflation worries, while companies are increasing bonuses to retain staff amidst a labor shortage –...

A major review of Japanese clothing retail markets: the ongoing shakeout benefits large and small chains, but profit growth across the sector is...

GMS chains and supermarkets are reviving their clothing sections, potentially creating new opportunities for higher margins at GMS operations.