FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

<p><em>The AUD is being pulled harder in opposite directions with the labour data suggesting the non-mining sector is coming to life, but weaker commodity demand in China and weak energy prices are dragging harder from below; best to stay on the side-lines for now.&nbsp; Oil prices appear to be responding to concerns over too much supply.&nbsp; The ECB has said low oil prices are a contributing factor to its assessment that more policy easing may be required. We stick to our weaker EUR view, as other major CBs are more prepared to look through the dis-inflation risk.</em></p>

The AUD is being pulled harder in opposite directions with the labour data suggesting the non-mining sector is coming to life, but weaker commodity demand in China and weak energy prices are dragging harder from below; best to stay on the side-lines for now.&nbsp; Oil prices appear to be responding to concerns over too much supply.&nbsp; The ECB has said low oil prices are a contributing factor to its assessment that more policy easing may be required. We stick to our weaker EUR view, as other major CBs are more prepared to look through the dis-inflation risk.

AmpGFX - AUD pulled harder in opposite directions

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Most active funds tout their ability to discriminate between good and poor quality management, and accordingly weight their portfolios towards businesses that they consider to be well managed.&nbsp; In the past decade, portfolio managers have also boasted of their ability to identify and invest in companies that score strongly across environment, governance and social (ESG) dimensions.</li></ul><ul><li>In the second instalment of Evidente's Dissecting Quality series, I show that management quality and corporate governance matter more for complex companies, where shareholders face high monitoring costs. To that end, I develop a systematic model of complexity and agency costs for the ASX200 based on eight company specific factors.</li><li>Some of the industrials that make up the top 20 complex stocks include: Qantas, Amcor, Computershare, Seek and Brambles. Investors can use the model to integrate their assessments of company management and corporate governance. In particular, investors should avoid complex stocks that score poorly across management quality and governance practices.</li></ul>

Most active funds tout their ability to discriminate between good and poor quality management, and accordingly weight their portfolios towards businesses that they consider to be well managed.&nbsp; In the past decade, portfolio managers have also boasted of their ability to identify and invest in companies that score strongly across environment, governance and social (ESG) dimensions.In the second instalment of Evidente's Dissecting Quality series, I show that management quality and corporate governance matter more for complex companies, where shareholders face high monitoring costs. To that end, I develop a systematic model of complexity and agency costs for the ASX200 based on eight company specific factors.Some of the industrials that make up the top 20 complex stocks include: Qantas, Amcor, Computershare, Seek and Brambles. Investors can use the model to integrate their assessments of company management and corporate governance. In particular, investors should avoid complex stocks that score poorly across management quality and governance practices.

Dissecting Quality: When Does Management Quality and Corporate Governance Matter Most?

Equity Bottom-Up

iShares MSCI Australia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In the second weekly wrap of top-down and bottom-up developments during Australia&rsquo;s reporting season, Evidente discusses the PBOC&rsquo;s rationale for devaluing the CNY/USD rate.&nbsp; Although it confirms that the authorities remain concerned about the state of the economy, this in itself is hardly new news.&nbsp; The peg to the dollar had effectively seen the yuan appreciate by 25% on a trade weighted basis over the past four years, and the devaluation now returns the yuan to the level that prevailed in late 2014, hardly a harbinger of a currency war.&nbsp; The PBOC is right to seek to re-align the currency with the economy&rsquo;s shortfall in aggregate demand. &nbsp;</li><li>In stock news for Australia, I suggest that investors avoid Realestate.com in the short-term because APRA&rsquo;s macro-prudential policies should to lead to a slowdown in credit growth to housing investors, which has been driving housing turnover and real estate listings higher.&nbsp; And a key lesson from Ansell&rsquo;s earnings miss is that investors need to beware that other globally dispersed, complex firms could also deliver an untimely earnings torpedo.</li></ul>

In the second weekly wrap of top-down and bottom-up developments during Australia&rsquo;s reporting season, Evidente discusses the PBOC&rsquo;s rationale for devaluing the CNY/USD rate.&nbsp; Although it confirms that the authorities remain concerned about the state of the economy, this in itself is hardly new news.&nbsp; The peg to the dollar had effectively seen the yuan appreciate by 25% on a trade weighted basis over the past four years, and the devaluation now returns the yuan to the level that prevailed in late 2014, hardly a harbinger of a currency war.&nbsp; The PBOC is right to seek to re-align the currency with the economy&rsquo;s shortfall in aggregate demand. &nbsp;In stock news for Australia, I suggest that investors avoid Realestate.com in the short-term because APRA&rsquo;s macro-prudential policies should to lead to a slowdown in credit growth to housing investors, which has been driving housing turnover and real estate listings higher.&nbsp; And a key lesson from Ansell&rsquo;s earnings miss is that investors need to beware that other globally dispersed, complex firms could also deliver an untimely earnings torpedo.

Australia

WorleyParsons Limited provides professional services through alliance and integrated service contracts to the energy, resource and complex process industries.  The Company provides its services to industrial sectors such as oil and gas refining, petrochemicals and chemicals, minerals and metals, power and water and industrial and infrastructure.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR AU)

AmpGFX - AUD pulled harder in opposite directions

The AUD is being pulled harder in opposite directions with the labour data suggesting the non-mining sector is coming to life, but weaker commodity...

Greg Gibbs

Dissecting Quality: When Does Management Quality and Corporate Governance Matter Most?

Most active funds tout their ability to discriminate between good and poor quality management, and accordingly weight their portfolios towards...

Sam Ferraro

Weekly Impressions

In the second weekly wrap of top-down and bottom-up developments during Australia’s reporting season, Evidente discusses the PBOC’s rationale for...

Sam Ferraro

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)