Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Market sentiment shifted again this week, with participation in stock gains dropping sharply from last week’s levels.</li>
<li>Option volumes continued to decline from February peaks, though single stocks saw a notable increase in activity on Friday.</li>
<li>We cover stocks with liquid options that have earnings reports in the coming week.</li>
</ul>


Market sentiment shifted again this week, with participation in stock gains dropping sharply from last week’s levels.
Option volumes continued to decline from February peaks, though single stocks saw a notable increase in activity on Friday.
We cover stocks with liquid options that have earnings reports in the coming week.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (March 10 – 14): Sentiment Shifts, Option Volumes Cool

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Duality Biotherapeutics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Duality Biotherapeutics, a China-based clinical-stage biotechnology company, plans to raise up to US$300m via a Hong Kong listing.</li>
<li>The company has passed the hearing for the listing and filed a new version of the prospectus.</li>
<li>We look at the difference between previous filing and current filing.</li>
</ul>


Duality Biotherapeutics, a China-based clinical-stage biotechnology company, plans to raise up to US$300m via a Hong Kong listing.
The company has passed the hearing for the listing and filed a new version of the prospectus.
We look at the difference between previous filing and current filing.


Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) Pre-IPO: PHIP Updates Show Slight Improvements

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>HK Alpha Portfolio returned 13.58% in February and outperformed the benchmark by 7.68%. The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 5.16% to 11.48% since its inception on 10/01/24.</li>
<li>About 50% of the portfolio's excess returns have been from alpha generation. The portfolio had no exposure to Real Estate, Energy, or Utilities.</li>
<li>At month-end we sold <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a> , and trimmed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> .</li>
</ul>


HK Alpha Portfolio returned 13.58% in February and outperformed the benchmark by 7.68%. The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 5.16% to 11.48% since its inception on 10/01/24.
About 50% of the portfolio's excess returns have been from alpha generation. The portfolio had no exposure to Real Estate, Energy, or Utilities.
At month-end we sold AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) , Trip.com Group (9961 HK) , MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) , and trimmed Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) .


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (February 2025)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our "Buy the Worst" strategy has outperformed the HSI by 1.7pp in the first two months. Meanwhile, the basket of best-performing constituents have underperformed 1.9pp. </li>
<li>More news on stimulating consumptions should be positive to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a>, and even <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> has been weighed down by weaker profitability on higher costs. Earnings risks may negatively affect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao (1378 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Our "Buy the Worst" strategy has outperformed the HSI by 1.7pp in the first two months. Meanwhile, the basket of best-performing constituents have underperformed 1.9pp. 
More news on stimulating consumptions should be positive to Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK), Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK), and even Hang Lung Properties (101 HK). 

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) has been weighed down by weaker profitability on higher costs. Earnings risks may negatively affect Meituan (3690 HK) and China Hongqiao (1378 HK). 


"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Initial Win Against HSI This Year

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

China

WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc. is a leading open-access R&D capability and technology platform company serving the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries, with operations in China, U.S., and Iceland.  We provide a broad and integrated portfolio of laboratory and manufacturing services throughout the drug and medical device R&D process.  Our services are designed to help our global partners in shortening the cycle and lowering the cost of drug and medical device R&D through cost-effective and efficient solutions. 

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Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (March 10 – 14): Sentiment Shifts, Option Volumes Cool

Market sentiment shifted as stock gains saw a drop in participation, while option volumes continued to decline. Earnings reports for stocks with...

John Ley

Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) Pre-IPO: PHIP Updates Show Slight Improvements

China's Duality Biotherapeutics aims to raise $300m through a Hong Kong listing. We looked at the changes between previous filing and the PHIP...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (February 2025)

HK Alpha portfolio returned 13.6% in February outperforming its benchmark and all HK indexes. Since inception HK Alpha has returned 13.1% with...

David Mudd

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Initial Win Against HSI This Year

"Buy the worst" strategy outperforms HSI by 1.7pp, while best-performing stocks lag by 1.9pp. Stimulating consumption news could benefit...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (March 10 – 14): Sentiment Shifts, Option Volumes Cool

​Market sentiment shifted as stock gains saw a drop in participation, while option volumes continued to decline. Earnings reports for stocks with...

John Ley

Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) Pre-IPO: PHIP Updates Show Slight Improvements

​China's Duality Biotherapeutics aims to raise $300m through a Hong Kong listing. We looked at the changes between previous filing and the PHIP...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (February 2025)

HK Alpha portfolio returned 13.6% in February outperforming its benchmark and all HK indexes. Since inception HK Alpha has returned 13.1% with...

David Mudd

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Initial Win Against HSI This Year

​"Buy the worst" strategy outperforms HSI by 1.7pp, while best-performing stocks lag by 1.9pp. Stimulating consumption news could benefit...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Market sentiment shifted as stock gains saw a drop in participation, while option volumes continued to decline. Earnings reports for stocks with...

China's Duality Biotherapeutics aims to raise $300m through a Hong Kong listing. We looked at the changes between previous filing and the PHIP...

"Buy the worst" strategy outperforms HSI by 1.7pp, while best-performing stocks lag by 1.9pp. Stimulating consumption news could benefit...