Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Suzhou Maxwell Technologies  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is one constituent change for the STAR&amp;CHINEXT 50 Index in June with AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Co (302132 CH) replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-maxwell-technologies-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29819:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Maxwell Technologies (300751 CH)</a>.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy 0.15x ADV in AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Co (302132 CH) and sell 0.4x ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-maxwell-technologies-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29819:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Maxwell Technologies (300751 CH)</a>. </li>
<li>AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Co (302132 CH) is a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500 Index</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> migration in June, so there will be more buying in the stock.</li>
</ul>


There is one constituent change for the STAR&amp;CHINEXT 50 Index in June with AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Co (302132 CH) replacing Suzhou Maxwell Technologies (300751 CH).
Passive trackers will need to buy 0.15x ADV in AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Co (302132 CH) and sell 0.4x ADV in Suzhou Maxwell Technologies (300751 CH). 
AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Co (302132 CH) is a CSI 500 Index to CSI 300 Index migration in June, so there will be more buying in the stock.


STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance: One Change in June Adds to Other (Larger) Index Flows

Anker Innovations Technology / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 1 constituent change (maybe 2) for the STAR&amp;CHINEXT 50 Index in June. The announcement of the potential change will be made after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anker-innovations-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36238:1" rel="noopener">Anker Innovations Technology</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-maxwell-technologies-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29819:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Maxwell Technologies</a> in the index. If AVIC Chengdu Aircraft is added to the index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-lead-intelligent-equipmen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27971:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment</a> could be deleted.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anker-innovations-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36238:1" rel="noopener">Anker Innovations Technology</a> could have opposite flow and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-maxwell-technologies-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29819:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Maxwell Technologies</a> could have same way flow from passive trackers of other indices on the same day.</li>
</ul>


There could be 1 constituent change (maybe 2) for the STAR&amp;CHINEXT 50 Index in June. The announcement of the potential change will be made after market close on Friday.

Anker Innovations Technology could replace Suzhou Maxwell Technologies in the index. If AVIC Chengdu Aircraft is added to the index, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment could be deleted.

Anker Innovations Technology could have opposite flow and Suzhou Maxwell Technologies could have same way flow from passive trackers of other indices on the same day.


STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance Preview: One Set of Change; Maybe Two

Kuang-Chi Technologies   / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 8 changes at the June rebalance with the Industrials and Information Technology sectors gaining 3 index spots each and the Materials sector losing 4 spots.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 1.44% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 32.55bn (US$4.5bn). There are 13 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 weeks even though there have been large ETF creations. There could be more outperformance coming up.</li>
</ul>


There could be 8 changes at the June rebalance with the Industrials and Information Technology sectors gaining 3 index spots each and the Materials sector losing 4 spots.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1.44% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 32.55bn (US$4.5bn). There are 13 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 weeks even though there have been large ETF creations. There could be more outperformance coming up.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 8 Changes a Side in June; US$4.5bn Trade

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the 1Q2025 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.</li>
<li>We estimate that the inflows in 1Q2025 were US$1,760 million and holdings were US$307 billion, compared to outflows of US$20 billion in 4Q. </li>
<li>We highlight flows for BYD, Naura Technology, Cmb, Yangtze Power, Weichai Power.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the 1Q2025 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.
We estimate that the inflows in 1Q2025 were US$1,760 million and holdings were US$307 billion, compared to outflows of US$20 billion in 4Q. 
We highlight flows for BYD, Naura Technology, Cmb, Yangtze Power, Weichai Power.


Northbound Flows (1Q2025): BYD, Naura Technology, Cmb, Yangtze Power, Weichai Power

<ul>
<li>There could be 7 changes at the June rebalance with the Information Technology sector gaining 3 index spots and the Materials sector losing 3 spots.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 1.45% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 28.1bn (US$3.9bn). There are 6 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>There have been redemptions in mainland China ETFs over the last couple of months and that leads to a lower impact on the stocks compared to the last rebalance.</li>
</ul>


There could be 7 changes at the June rebalance with the Information Technology sector gaining 3 index spots and the Materials sector losing 3 spots.
We estimate one-way turnover of 1.45% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 28.1bn (US$3.9bn). There are 6 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.
There have been redemptions in mainland China ETFs over the last couple of months and that leads to a lower impact on the stocks compared to the last rebalance.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes a Side as Market Trades in a Range

China

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co Ltd is a manufacturer of high-tech equiptments. The company designs and manufactures electronic capacitors, solar energy equipments and lithium batteries equipments.

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipmen (300450 CH)

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Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipmen (300450 CH)

STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance: One Change in June Adds to Other (Larger) Index Flows

AVIC Chengdu Aircraft replaces Suzhou Maxwell Technologies. AVIC Chengdu Aircraft is also a CSI500 to CSI300 migration (net inflows) while Suzhou...

Brian Freitas

STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance Preview: One Set of Change; Maybe Two

There should be 1 index change in June. Possibly 2. Anker Innovations is a potential CSI300 delete while Suzhou Maxwell is a global index deletion...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 8 Changes a Side in June; US$4.5bn Trade

8 changes forecast for CSI300 June. Estimated one-way turnover is 1.44% and round-trip trade is US$4.5bn. A long adds/short deletes trade has done...

Brian Freitas

Northbound Flows (1Q2025): BYD, Naura Technology, Cmb, Yangtze Power, Weichai Power

We analyzed Northbound connect data for 1Q2025 and highlight flows for BYD, Naura Technology, Cmb, Yangtze Power, Weichai Power.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes a Side as Market Trades in a Range

There could be 7 changes for the CSI300 in June with a one-way turnover of 1.45% and a round-trip trade of US$3.9bn. The adds and deletes have...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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