Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Preliminary consumption and tourism data from the Chinese New Year started to come out last Sunday.  While growth rates clearly weakened compared to previous years, they are in line with the “soft-landing” expectation.

Preliminary consumption and tourism data from the Chinese New Year started to come out last Sunday.  While growth rates clearly weakened compared to previous years, they are in line with the “soft-landing” expectation. 

CNY 2019 Consumption/Tourism Preliminary Data: Decelerating But Better Than Many Feared

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we look at agency ratings for Asian issuers. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

   In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we look at agency ratings for Asian issuers.    The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Agency Ratings For Asian Issuers - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar. 

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 01 Feb 2019

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for January includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

   The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for January includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - January 2019 - Lucror Analytics

In previous credit cycles managed by Beijing, VIP and Mass GGR demonstrated a close correlation to M1 albeit with delays.  Change in M1 typically led VIP growth by 2-3 quarters. Change in VIP GGR growth led Mass GGR by 1 month.  M1 growth in China peaked at 33.2% in Q4 2009, driven by Beijing’s stimulus program to fend off the slowdown from the global financial crisis started in the US in 2008 spreading to Europe in 2009. VIP GGR growth peaked at 99% YoY in Q2 2010 and Mass up 37% immediately after.  The latest credit cycle in China peaked in Q3 2016, with M1 up 25%, 3 quarters ahead of VIP growth peaking at 35%. (Exhibit 1)<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/438/original/1.jpg?1547412238" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75438"></figure>

In previous credit cycles managed by Beijing, VIP and Mass GGR demonstrated a close correlation to M1 albeit with delays.  Change in M1 typically led VIP growth by 2-3 quarters. Change in VIP GGR growth led Mass GGR by 1 month.  M1 growth in China peaked at 33.2% in Q4 2009, driven by Beijing’s stimulus program to fend off the slowdown from the global financial crisis started in the US in 2008 spreading to Europe in 2009. VIP GGR growth peaked at 99% YoY in Q2 2010 and Mass up 37% immediately after.  The latest credit cycle in China peaked in Q3 2016, with M1 up 25%, 3 quarters ahead of VIP growth peaking at 35%. (Exhibit 1)

Macau Gaming - Historical Correlation B/T Gaming GGR and M1

Hong Kong

Wynn Macau, Limited owns and operates Wynn Macau, a destination casino resort currently featuring hotel rooms and suites, a casino, casual and fine dining restaurants, retail space and leisure amenities.

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Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)

CNY 2019 Consumption/Tourism Preliminary Data: Decelerating But Better Than Many Feared

Preliminary consumption and tourism data from the Chinese New Year started to come out last Sunday. While growth rates clearly weakened compared...

JL Warren Capital

Asia HY Monthly - Agency Ratings For Asian Issuers - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we look at agency ratings for Asian issuers. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events,...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 01 Feb 2019

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - January 2019 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for January includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also...

Lucror Analytics

Macau Gaming - Historical Correlation B/T Gaming GGR and M1

In previous credit cycles managed by Beijing, VIP and Mass GGR demonstrated a close correlation to M1 albeit with delays. Change in M1 typically...

JL Warren Capital

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