Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Xcel Energy reported second-quarter 2026 earnings of $0.93 per share, up from $0.75 per share in the prior year, reflecting higher electric revenues from nonfuel riders and sales growth, increased allowance for funds used during construction (AFUDC), and lower depreciation and amortization expenses.</li><li>These factors were partially offset by higher interest expenses and costs related to common equity financing, which supports the company’s extensive infrastructure investments.</li><li>Year-to-date weather-adjusted electric sales increased by 2.1%, with expectations for a 3% increase for the full year.</li></ul>

Xcel Energy reported second-quarter 2026 earnings of $0.93 per share, up from $0.75 per share in the prior year, reflecting higher electric revenues from nonfuel riders and sales growth, increased allowance for funds used during construction (AFUDC), and lower depreciation and amortization expenses.These factors were partially offset by higher interest expenses and costs related to common equity financing, which supports the company’s extensive infrastructure investments.Year-to-date weather-adjusted electric sales increased by 2.1%, with expectations for a 3% increase for the full year.

Xcel Energy’s $10 Billion Data Center Opportunity — Can It Drive 9%+ EPS Growth?

<ul><li>Xcel Energy’s latest discussion reflects a company operating with a clear growth runway supported by rising electricity demand, large-scale capital deployment, and continued regulatory engagement, while also navigating financing pressures, regulatory execution risk, and liability overhangs.</li><li>The company delivered ongoing earnings of $3.80 per share for 2025, supported by higher electric and natural gas revenues driven by rate case outcomes, nonfuel riders, and modest sales growth, partially offset by higher fuel costs, operating expenses, depreciation, and increased financing costs tied to its expanding investment program.</li><li>Weather-adjusted sales growth of 2.2% and a projected 3% increase in 2026 indicate steady underlying demand, with incremental upside expected from commercial and industrial load, particularly linked to data center activity.</li></ul>

Xcel Energy’s latest discussion reflects a company operating with a clear growth runway supported by rising electricity demand, large-scale capital deployment, and continued regulatory engagement, while also navigating financing pressures, regulatory execution risk, and liability overhangs.The company delivered ongoing earnings of $3.80 per share for 2025, supported by higher electric and natural gas revenues driven by rate case outcomes, nonfuel riders, and modest sales growth, partially offset by higher fuel costs, operating expenses, depreciation, and increased financing costs tied to its expanding investment program.Weather-adjusted sales growth of 2.2% and a projected 3% increase in 2026 indicate steady underlying demand, with incremental upside expected from commercial and industrial load, particularly linked to data center activity.

<ul><li>Xcel Energy's third quarter 2025 earnings results and accompanying strategic outlook offer a mixed picture with both positive developments and challenges.</li><li>On the financial front, Xcel Energy reported a GAAP earnings per share of $0.88, with ongoing earnings of $1.24 per share after excluding a nonrecurring charge of $0.36 per share related to a settlement for the Marshall wildfire.</li><li>This nuanced adjustment in financial reporting is crucial for investors to comprehend the real operational performance of the company.</li></ul>

Xcel Energy's third quarter 2025 earnings results and accompanying strategic outlook offer a mixed picture with both positive developments and challenges.On the financial front, Xcel Energy reported a GAAP earnings per share of $0.88, with ongoing earnings of $1.24 per share after excluding a nonrecurring charge of $0.36 per share related to a settlement for the Marshall wildfire.This nuanced adjustment in financial reporting is crucial for investors to comprehend the real operational performance of the company.

Xcel Energy’s Solar & Wind Expansion — Is This the Future of America’s Power Grid?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $255-$257 on IWM continue to hold</li>
<li>We see deterioration in market dynamics, and while we still expect a period of consolidation/pullback, aforementioned support levels need to break to give us confidence that the pullback has begun.</li>
<li>We are upgrading Staples (XLP) to overweight, and we are downgrading Services to underweight</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $255-$257 on IWM continue to hold
We see deterioration in market dynamics, and while we still expect a period of consolidation/pullback, aforementioned support levels need to break to give us confidence that the pullback has begun.
We are upgrading Staples (XLP) to overweight, and we are downgrading Services to underweight


Upgrading Staples to Overweight; Downgrading Services. Still Cautious; Market Dynamics Deteriorating

<ul>
<li>Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.</li>
<li>Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.</li>
<li>SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).</li>
</ul>


Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.
Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.
SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).


Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

United States

Xcel Energy, Inc. provides electric and natural gas services.  The Company offers a variety of energy-related services, including generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity and natural gas throughout the United States. Xcel utilities serve customers in portions of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas and Wisconsin.

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Xcel Energy Inc (XEL US)

Xcel Energy’s $10 Billion Data Center Opportunity — Can It Drive 9%+ EPS Growth?

Xcel Energy reported second-quarter 2026 earnings of $0.93 per share, up from $0.75 per share in the prior year, reflecting higher electric...

Baptista Research

Xcel Energy: Transmission Expansion

Xcel Energy’s latest discussion reflects a company operating with a clear growth runway supported by rising electricity demand, large-scale...

Baptista Research

Xcel Energy’s Solar & Wind Expansion — Is This the Future of America’s Power Grid?

Xcel Energy's third quarter 2025 earnings results and accompanying strategic outlook offer a mixed picture with both positive developments and...

Baptista Research

Upgrading Staples to Overweight; Downgrading Services. Still Cautious; Market Dynamics Deteriorating

Upgrading Staples $XLP to Overweight; Downgrading Services. Cautious $SPX $QQQ; Market Dynamics Deteriorating as Defensives Take the Lead $XLU...

Vermilion Research

Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Recessionary Signals as $SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy $XLE to Underweight; WTI Crude Oil Breakdown. Still expecting more downside. $XLB...

Vermilion Research

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