Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.</li>
<li>We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.
We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial / Equity Capital Markets

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-baicha-baidao-industrial" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40029:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (SCBCBDID CH)</a>, a leading freshly made tea drinks company, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$330 million. The shares will be listed on 23 April.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baicha-baidao-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:136692" rel="noopener">Baicha Baidao IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baicha-baidao-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:136734" rel="noopener">Baicha Baidao IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>There are no cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests that Baicha is fairly valued at the HK$17.50 IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (SCBCBDID CH), a leading freshly made tea drinks company, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$330 million. The shares will be listed on 23 April.
We previously discussed the IPO in Baicha Baidao IPO: The Bull Case and Baicha Baidao IPO: The Bear Case. 
There are no cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests that Baicha is fairly valued at the HK$17.50 IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.


Baicha Baidao (2555 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (GUM HK)</a> is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Goldman Sachs, and UBS.</li>
<li>Guming Holdings (Guming) is a maker of freshly-made beverages in China.</li>
<li>As per CIC, its “Good me” brand is China’s largest mid-priced freshly-made tea store brand in terms of both GMV in 2023 and store count as of Dec 2023.</li>
</ul>



Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Goldman Sachs, and UBS.
Guming Holdings (Guming) is a maker of freshly-made beverages in China.
As per CIC, its “Good me” brand is China’s largest mid-priced freshly-made tea store brand in terms of both GMV in 2023 and store count as of Dec 2023.


Guming Holdings (Goodme) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group-bab2ff71-b80e-406a-8746-77d70acaa16e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40625:1" rel="noopener">MIXUE Group (1860056D CH)</a> is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and UBS.</li>
<li>MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.</li>
<li>The firm is the largest domestically freshly-made drinks company in terms of number of stores as of Sept 23, and number of cups sold during 9M23, according to CIC.</li>
</ul>



MIXUE Group (1860056D CH) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and UBS.
MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
The firm is the largest domestically freshly-made drinks company in terms of number of stores as of Sept 23, and number of cups sold during 9M23, according to CIC.


Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe the company is well positioned in China's rapidly growing pizza market thanks to its strong brand and superior store economics. </li>
<li>Despite stock rally post 1H23 results, market still underestimates its earnings for both near and long term. We expect RMB250 million net profit for 2024 versus break-even by consensus.  </li>
<li>History suggests DPC Dash has recipe for attractive stock return driven by its highly visible growth that can shield it from macro situations, which is desperately needed by China investors.  </li>
</ul>


We believe the company is well positioned in China's rapidly growing pizza market thanks to its strong brand and superior store economics. 
Despite stock rally post 1H23 results, market still underestimates its earnings for both near and long term. We expect RMB250 million net profit for 2024 versus break-even by consensus.  
History suggests DPC Dash has recipe for attractive stock return driven by its highly visible growth that can shield it from macro situations, which is desperately needed by China investors.  


DPC Dash (1405 HK): Recipe for Multibagger

China

Xiabuxiabu Catering Management (China) Holdings Co., Ltd. is a multi-brand restaurant operator specializing in Chinese hotpot, primarily through its fast-casual Xiabuxiabu brand and premium Coucou brand. The company also offers catering services and sells condiment products. It was founded in Beijing, China, in 1998.

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Xiabuxiabu (520 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

There could be nearly 80 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

Baicha Baidao (2555 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that Baicha is fairly valued at the HK$17.50 IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.

Arun George

Guming Holdings (Goodme) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Goldman Sachs, and UBS. Guming...

Clarence Chu

MIXUE Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet

MIXUE Group (1860056D CH) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Bank of America, Goldman...

Clarence Chu

DPC Dash (1405 HK): Recipe for Multibagger

We believe the company has the right recipe to become another multibagger in China's catering sector thanks to its strong brand and superior store...

Eric Chen

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