Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Double Medical Technology  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be up to 6 changes for the CSI Medical Service Index at the December rebalance with the number of changes mainly driven by the inclusions.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 6.9% and the round-trip trade is estimated at CNY 4.11bn (US$578m). There are 8 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since June but have underperformed in the short-term. With the review period complete and announcement in 3 weeks, positioning could resume.</li>
</ul>


There could be up to 6 changes for the CSI Medical Service Index at the December rebalance with the number of changes mainly driven by the inclusions.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.9% and the round-trip trade is estimated at CNY 4.11bn (US$578m). There are 8 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since June but have underperformed in the short-term. With the review period complete and announcement in 3 weeks, positioning could resume.


CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Six Potential Changes in December

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Concord Healthcare Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Concord’s financial performance seems improving on the surface,but a closer look reveals that the sudden explosive revenue increase in 2021 was mainly due to an acquisition, with potential risks behind.</li>
<li>We've doubts about Concord's endogenous growth capability. If Concord’s hospitals cannot make a profit, then any further expansion is just a beautiful story and cannot bring expected returns to investors. </li>
<li>Concord conducted a total of four rounds of financing, with a valuation of approximately RMB7.2 billion. However, based on our analysis, its valuation could be lower than peers.</li>
</ul>


Concord’s financial performance seems improving on the surface,but a closer look reveals that the sudden explosive revenue increase in 2021 was mainly due to an acquisition, with potential risks behind.
We've doubts about Concord's endogenous growth capability. If Concord’s hospitals cannot make a profit, then any further expansion is just a beautiful story and cannot bring expected returns to investors. 
Concord conducted a total of four rounds of financing, with a valuation of approximately RMB7.2 billion. However, based on our analysis, its valuation could be lower than peers.


Pre-IPO Concord Healthcare Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.</li>
<li>But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.</li>
<li>It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.
It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.


Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Industry viewpoints:
<ul class="">
<li>China released a new policy to support couples having a third child as the population ages.</li>
<li>A joint procurement office on behalf of medical institutions in 12 provinces was formed to carry out centralized procurement of orthopedic trauma medical consumables.</li>
<li>With the increasing incidence of diseases that directly cause skull defects, the skull defect repair material industry in China has developed rapidly.</li>
</ul>
Company news:
News about the updated license-in agreement and new progress on drugs of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zai-lab-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25877:1" rel="noopener">Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK),</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a>.
Market review: 
Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 0.69%, while CSI 300 decreased 0.73% over the same period of time.
Risk disclosure:
Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Industry viewpoints:

China released a new policy to support couples having a third child as the population ages.
A joint procurement office on behalf of medical institutions in 12 provinces was formed to carry out centralized procurement of orthopedic trauma medical consumables.
With the increasing incidence of diseases that directly cause skull defects, the skull defect repair material industry in China has developed rapidly.

Company news:
News about the updated license-in agreement and new progress on drugs of Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB US), CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK), and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH).
Market review: 
Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 0.69%, while CSI 300 decreased 0.73% over the same period of time.
Risk disclosure:
Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

China

Xian International Medical Investment Co Ltd is principally engaged in the medical services industry.

Xian International Medical Invest (000516 CH)

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Xian International Medical Invest (000516 CH)

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Six Potential Changes in December

There could be 6 changes for the index in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 6.9% and the round-trip trade is estimated at US$578m. There are 8...

Brian Freitas

Pre-IPO Concord Healthcare Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

An acquisition stimulated the growth of Concord and brought its revenue scale to a new level. But concerns on endogenous growth capability and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

Bullish reversals have begun, as the $SPX, MSCI ACWI $ACWI, and $STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and...

Vermilion Research

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.4)

This insight mainly analyzed the three-child new policy, centralized procurement of orthopedic trauma medical consumables, skull defect repair...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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