HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The HK$7.19/share IPO pricing is attractive. The valuation safety margin reserved for the IPO of Green Tea may be mainly due to the management's consideration of attracting long-term funds.</li>
<li>If the market sentiment is positive, combined with conservative IPO pricing, Green Tea would still perform well after listing. For example, valuation has the potential to recover to 15x P/E.</li>
<li>However, when scale expansion fails to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core logic of the capital story.So, taking profits when Green Tea's valuation exceeds Xiaocaiyuan is a good option.  </li>
</ul>


The HK$7.19/share IPO pricing is attractive. The valuation safety margin reserved for the IPO of Green Tea may be mainly due to the management's consideration of attracting long-term funds.
If the market sentiment is positive, combined with conservative IPO pricing, Green Tea would still perform well after listing. For example, valuation has the potential to recover to 15x P/E.
However, when scale expansion fails to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core logic of the capital story.So, taking profits when Green Tea's valuation exceeds Xiaocaiyuan is a good option.  


Pre-IPO Green Tea Group - Thoughts on IPO Pricing and Valuation Outlook

LXJ International Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>LXJ’s revenue/net profit showed an upward trend from 2022 to 24Q1-Q3, but growth momentum was decreasing. The same store sales growth dropped significantly. Profit margin is also lower than peers. </li>
<li>There’re significant differences in dietary habits and tastes across China, making it difficult for LXJ to expand nationwide. So, the future growth potential may not be as good as expected.</li>
<li>In December 2021, valuation of LXJ had reached RMB18 billion. Since LXJ’s revenue growth/profit margin are inferior to Xiaocaiyuan, we think the valuation of LXJ should be lower than Xiaocaiyuan.</li>
</ul>


LXJ’s revenue/net profit showed an upward trend from 2022 to 24Q1-Q3, but growth momentum was decreasing. The same store sales growth dropped significantly. Profit margin is also lower than peers. 
There’re significant differences in dietary habits and tastes across China, making it difficult for LXJ to expand nationwide. So, the future growth potential may not be as good as expected.
In December 2021, valuation of LXJ had reached RMB18 billion. Since LXJ’s revenue growth/profit margin are inferior to Xiaocaiyuan, we think the valuation of LXJ should be lower than Xiaocaiyuan.


Pre-IPO LXJ International Holdings - The Pain Points and the Outlook

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 38 potential and close adds and 51 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>There have been many new listings in the last weeks of December. Some of them are fairly large and will be added and that increases the number of potential deletions.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 38 potential and close adds and 51 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
There have been many new listings in the last weeks of December. Some of them are fairly large and will be added and that increases the number of potential deletions.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Updated Potential Changes in March 2025

<ul>
<li>Green Tea’s future performance growth is uncertain due to increasing competition, changes in consumer tastes, lack of a secondary growth curve, unsatisfactory table turnover rate and the old menu.</li>
<li>Simply opening more restaurants cannot break through development bottlenecks.Whether shares would perform well after IPO depends on if Green Tea is able to deliver persuasive/sustainable growth story to the market.</li>
<li>The moat of Green Tea is still “fragile”. We think the valuation of Green Tea should be between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiumaojiu-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28293:1" rel="noopener">Jiumaojiu (9922 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ajisen-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:990:1" rel="noopener">Ajisen (538 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Green Tea’s future performance growth is uncertain due to increasing competition, changes in consumer tastes, lack of a secondary growth curve, unsatisfactory table turnover rate and the old menu.
Simply opening more restaurants cannot break through development bottlenecks.Whether shares would perform well after IPO depends on if Green Tea is able to deliver persuasive/sustainable growth story to the market.
The moat of Green Tea is still “fragile”. We think the valuation of Green Tea should be between Haidilao (6862 HK) and Jiumaojiu (9922 HK), Ajisen (538 HK).


Pre-IPO Green Tea Group - Lack of an Attractive "Growth Story"

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, we looked at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> refiling and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaocaiyuan-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40688:1" rel="noopener">Xiaocaiyuan International Holding</a> .</li>
<li>For placements, it was an action packed week in India, again, with Australia joining in as well.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, we looked at Trial Holdings (5882 JP) refiling and Xiaocaiyuan International Holding .
For placements, it was an action packed week in India, again, with Australia joining in as well.


ECM Weekly (26th Feb 2024) - Trial Holdings, Juniper, Xiaocaiyuan, Union Bank, Orica, Azure

China

Xiaocaiyuan International Holding (XCY HK)

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Xiaocaiyuan International Holding (XCY HK)

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group - Thoughts on IPO Pricing and Valuation Outlook

Green Tea's IPO pricing shows good valuation safety margin. When scale expansion fail to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO LXJ International Holdings - The Pain Points and the Outlook

LXJ's revenue and profit are on the rise but growth is slowing, facing challenges in expanding nationwide due to regional dietary differences....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Updated Potential Changes in March 2025

There could be 89 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 73 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group - Lack of an Attractive "Growth Story"

Green Tea faces uncertain future growth due to competition/changing tastes/operational challenges.Valuation should be between Haidilao and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

ECM Weekly (26th Feb 2024) - Trial Holdings, Juniper, Xiaocaiyuan, Union Bank, Orica, Azure

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group - Thoughts on IPO Pricing and Valuation Outlook

​Green Tea's IPO pricing shows good valuation safety margin. When scale expansion fail to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO LXJ International Holdings - The Pain Points and the Outlook

​LXJ's revenue and profit are on the rise but growth is slowing, facing challenges in expanding nationwide due to regional dietary differences....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Updated Potential Changes in March 2025

There could be 89 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 73 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group - Lack of an Attractive "Growth Story"

​Green Tea faces uncertain future growth due to competition/changing tastes/operational challenges.Valuation should be between Haidilao and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

ECM Weekly (26th Feb 2024) - Trial Holdings, Juniper, Xiaocaiyuan, Union Bank, Orica, Azure

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Green Tea's IPO pricing shows good valuation safety margin. When scale expansion fail to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core...

LXJ's revenue and profit are on the rise but growth is slowing, facing challenges in expanding nationwide due to regional dietary differences....

Green Tea faces uncertain future growth due to competition/changing tastes/operational challenges.Valuation should be between Haidilao and...