Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

Hong Kong Exchange publishes share repurchases by listed companies on a daily basis. In our weekly note, we will provide statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Sep 3rd.In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent Holdings Limited (700 HK) (HKD 513.1 million worth of buybacks), Country Garden Services Holdings Company Limited (6098 HK) (HKD 308.5 million worth of buybacks), Xiaomi Corporation (1810 HK) (HKD 198.5 million worth of buybacks).

Hong Kong Exchange publishes share repurchases by listed companies on a daily basis. In our weekly note, we will provide statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Sep 3rd.In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent Holdings Limited (700 HK) (HKD 513.1 million worth of buybacks), Country Garden Services Holdings Company Limited (6098 HK) (HKD 308.5 million worth of buybacks), Xiaomi Corporation (1810 HK) (HKD 198.5 million worth of buybacks).

Hong Kong Buybacks: Tencent Spent HKD600m for Buybacks Last Week

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The upcoming rebalances for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> will be implemented at the close of trading on 3 September. The rebalance will use data from todays close to cap the stocks in the index at a maximum of 8% of the index weight.In this Insight, we show the flows after capping stocks using the close on 30 August. The final numbers will be marginally different based on todays closing prices.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> there are 3 inclusions - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-glass-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11940:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Glass Holdings (868 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a> and 1 exclusion - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-communications-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:659:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK)</a>.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, the inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a> while the deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimao-property-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8375:1" rel="noopener">Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)</a>.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> there is one set of changes with Trip.com (9961 HK) / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koolearn-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27796:1" rel="noopener">Koolearn (1797 HK)</a>.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>'s weight in all 3 indices is higher than 8% following the increase in the number of index shares at the July monthly rebalance. The stock will have the largest passive selling due to capping back to 8%.Capping and float changes will lead to passive buying on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, while there will be passive selling on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a>.There will be selling on a lot of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> constituents due to funding flows.

The upcoming rebalances for the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) and Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) will be implemented at the close of trading on 3 September. The rebalance will use data from todays close to cap the stocks in the index at a maximum of 8% of the index weight.In this Insight, we show the flows after capping stocks using the close on 30 August. The final numbers will be marginally different based on todays closing prices.For the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) there are 3 inclusions - Xinyi Glass Holdings (868 HK), Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK) and China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) and 1 exclusion - Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK).For the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), the inclusions are JD Logistics (2618 HK) and Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK) while the deletions are Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK) and Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK).For the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) there is one set of changes with Trip.com (9961 HK) / Trip.com (TCOM US) replacing Koolearn (1797 HK).Alibaba Group (9988 HK)'s weight in all 3 indices is higher than 8% following the increase in the number of index shares at the July monthly rebalance. The stock will have the largest passive selling due to capping back to 8%.Capping and float changes will lead to passive buying on Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), while there will be passive selling on HSBC Holdings (5 HK), AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK), China Construction Bank H (939 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and HKEX (388 HK).There will be selling on a lot of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) constituents due to funding flows.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: September Rebalance Flows Post Capping

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

In this analysis, we provide a detailed overview of investor positioning among 250 active Global Emerging Market funds with combined AUM of $500bn.  Highlights:<ul>
<li>Asia the dominant region but also net underweight.  Managers move to underweight EMEA and strengthen overweight in the Americas.</li>
<li>China the dominant weight but allocations move lower.  Mexico and Russia the key overweights, China, Saudi Arabia and Taiwan the largest underweights.</li>
<li>Allocations in China Consumer Discretionary continue to head lower from their peak in October 2020 of 13.9%.  The underweight of -2.33% is towards the lowest on record and is driven by lighter than benchmark holdings in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a>.</li>
<li>The rise in Russian Consumer Discretionary ownership driven by Fix Price Group, with 16.1% of funds buying in to the stock after it's IPO back in March.  A quarter of funds now have exposure to the sector, the largest in its history.</li>
<li>Turkish Financials exposure continues to dwindle, with only 16.1% of funds invested.  The most widely held stocks in the sector are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haci-omer-sabanci-holding-as" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27708:1" rel="noopener">Haci Omer Sabanci Holding AS (SAHOL TI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akbank-tas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25033:1" rel="noopener">Akbank TAS (AKBNK TI)</a>, but both are held by just 6% of the funds in our analysis.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/turkiye-garanti-bankasi-as" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25026:1" rel="noopener">Turkiye Garanti Bankasi As (GARAN TI)</a> is now held by 4% of funds after 4% closed positions in the last 6-months. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (A) (300750 CH).</a> Ownership continues to rise among EM managers, with today's investment levels the highest on record across all metrics.  Recent buyers in to the name include JP Morgan, TT International and American Century.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>.  Ownership remains on an upward trajectory with no signs of that slowing down.  Over the last 6-months, a further 6.8% of funds added exposure, including Fidelity EM Opportunity, Aberdeen Emerging Markets and Ashmore EM Active Equity.  GQG Partners was the only closure after cashing in on a position held since early 2020.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)</a>. Outflows have been severe, with 26.9% of funds invested 6-months ago, now down to just 16.9%.  Among those closing positions were Ashmore Emerging Markets Active, Pictet EM Sustainable and Dunham Emerging Markets.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credicorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25963:1" rel="noopener">Credicorp Ltd (BAP US).  </a>Once among the larger holdings in EM active portfolios, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credicorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25963:1" rel="noopener">Credicorp Ltd (BAP US)</a> has moved out of favour with EM fund managers.  In a slide that started in late 2019, the percentage of funds with investment in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credicorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25963:1" rel="noopener">Credicorp Ltd (BAP US)</a> fell a further 6.4% over the last 6-months.  Closures were led by Liontrust, Matthews and HSBC.</li>
</ul>

In this analysis, we provide a detailed overview of investor positioning among 250 active Global Emerging Market funds with combined AUM of $500bn.  Highlights:
Asia the dominant region but also net underweight.  Managers move to underweight EMEA and strengthen overweight in the Americas.
China the dominant weight but allocations move lower.  Mexico and Russia the key overweights, China, Saudi Arabia and Taiwan the largest underweights.
Allocations in China Consumer Discretionary continue to head lower from their peak in October 2020 of 13.9%.  The underweight of -2.33% is towards the lowest on record and is driven by lighter than benchmark holdings in Alibaba Group (BABA US), Meituan (3690 HK) and NIO Inc (NIO US).
The rise in Russian Consumer Discretionary ownership driven by Fix Price Group, with 16.1% of funds buying in to the stock after it's IPO back in March.  A quarter of funds now have exposure to the sector, the largest in its history.
Turkish Financials exposure continues to dwindle, with only 16.1% of funds invested.  The most widely held stocks in the sector are Haci Omer Sabanci Holding AS (SAHOL TI) and Akbank TAS (AKBNK TI), but both are held by just 6% of the funds in our analysis.  Turkiye Garanti Bankasi As (GARAN TI) is now held by 4% of funds after 4% closed positions in the last 6-months. 

CATL (A) (300750 CH). Ownership continues to rise among EM managers, with today's investment levels the highest on record across all metrics.  Recent buyers in to the name include JP Morgan, TT International and American Century.
Sea Ltd (SE US).  Ownership remains on an upward trajectory with no signs of that slowing down.  Over the last 6-months, a further 6.8% of funds added exposure, including Fidelity EM Opportunity, Aberdeen Emerging Markets and Ashmore EM Active Equity.  GQG Partners was the only closure after cashing in on a position held since early 2020.

Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK). Outflows have been severe, with 26.9% of funds invested 6-months ago, now down to just 16.9%.  Among those closing positions were Ashmore Emerging Markets Active, Pictet EM Sustainable and Dunham Emerging Markets.

Credicorp Ltd (BAP US).  Once among the larger holdings in EM active portfolios, Credicorp Ltd (BAP US) has moved out of favour with EM fund managers.  In a slide that started in late 2019, the percentage of funds with investment in Credicorp Ltd (BAP US) fell a further 6.4% over the last 6-months.  Closures were led by Liontrust, Matthews and HSBC.


EM Fund Positioning:  All You Need to Know

Hong Kong SFC reported aggregate short position as of Aug 20. The aggregate short value for equities decreased by $-4,182m (-6.1%) WoW and decreased by $4,188m (-6.1%) over the preceding four weeks. Most shorted stocks by aggregate short value of positions are Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China, Ltd./2318 HK($4,519m, -5.9% WoW), China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd./3968 HK($2,233m, -1.4% WoW), Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited/881 HK($1,868m, -10.3% WoW), Anta Sports Products Limited/2020 HK($1,667m, -0.2% WoW), Tencent Holdings Limited/700 HK($1,505m, -16.5% WoW).

Hong Kong SFC reported aggregate short position as of Aug 20. The aggregate short value for equities decreased by $-4,182m (-6.1%) WoW and decreased by $4,188m (-6.1%) over the preceding four weeks.  Most shorted stocks by aggregate short value of positions are Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China, Ltd./2318 HK($4,519m, -5.9% WoW), China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd./3968 HK($2,233m, -1.4% WoW), Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited/881 HK($1,868m, -10.3% WoW), Anta Sports Products Limited/2020 HK($1,667m, -0.2% WoW), Tencent Holdings Limited/700 HK($1,505m, -16.5% WoW).

HK Short Interest: Short Increased in Xiaomi, Pop Mart and Cansino

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:285:1" rel="noopener">JOYY (YY US)</a> may be subject to a privatisation bid from Mr David Li (co-founder and Chairman) and Mr Jun Lei (founder and Chairman of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>), its top two shareholders, according to Reuters report on 26 August. Mr David Li and Mr Jun Lei are looking to privatise Joyy at $75-$100 per ADS and finalise the deal by the end of 2021. Mr David Li and Mr Jun Lei aim to spin off Joyy's key asset, BIGO, and list it in Hong Kong, to take advantage of higher valuations, according to Reuters. On 27 August, Joyy said it has not received any formal takeover offers, according to Chinese media reports.  Joyy shares are around 60% below their February peak due to weak guidance (3Q21 revenue guidance was around 16% below consensus), the delay of SAMR anti-trust approval for the YY Live disposal and ongoing policy uncertainty on Chinese tech.As a reminder, on 16 November 2020, Joyy entered into a definitive agreement with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> for the disposal of YY Live for $3.6 billion in cash, subject to certain adjustments. The sale was substantially completed on 8 February 2021 resulting in a $1.9 billion payment from Baidu. Notably, Joyy’s market cap of $4.9 billion is 7% below its net cash of $5.2 billion, which is the sum of the 2Q1 net cash of $3.9 billion and Baidu's remaining payment net of tax $1.4 billion.As Joyy is incorporated in the Cayman Islands, for potential privatisation to succeed, shareholders representing two-thirds of shares present and voting need to approve the deal. Mr David Li represents 76.0% of the voting interest and has the two-thirds voting interest threshold needed to approve any potential privatisation deal.<div class="content-highlight">Our SOTP and relative valuation suggest that the rumoured privatisation range of $75-100 per ADS is justifiable and reasonable. Our base-case SOTP valuation is $71.69 per ADS, which is a 16% premium to the last close price of $61.97 per ADS. Despite Joyy's insistence that no formal bid has been received, we would be buyers as the shares offer a favourable risk/reward profile to the emergence of a formal privatisation bid.</div>

JOYY (YY US) may be subject to a privatisation bid from Mr David Li (co-founder and Chairman) and Mr Jun Lei (founder and Chairman of Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)), its top two shareholders, according to Reuters report on 26 August. Mr David Li and Mr Jun Lei are looking to privatise Joyy at $75-$100 per ADS and finalise the deal by the end of 2021. Mr David Li and Mr Jun Lei aim to spin off Joyy's key asset, BIGO, and list it in Hong Kong, to take advantage of higher valuations, according to Reuters. On 27 August, Joyy said it has not received any formal takeover offers, according to Chinese media reports.  Joyy shares are around 60% below their February peak due to weak guidance (3Q21 revenue guidance was around 16% below consensus), the delay of SAMR anti-trust approval for the YY Live disposal and ongoing policy uncertainty on Chinese tech.As a reminder, on 16 November 2020, Joyy entered into a definitive agreement with Baidu (BIDU US) for the disposal of YY Live for $3.6 billion in cash, subject to certain adjustments. The sale was substantially completed on 8 February 2021 resulting in a $1.9 billion payment from Baidu. Notably, Joyy’s market cap of $4.9 billion is 7% below its net cash of $5.2 billion, which is the sum of the 2Q1 net cash of $3.9 billion and Baidu's remaining payment net of tax $1.4 billion.As Joyy is incorporated in the Cayman Islands, for potential privatisation to succeed, shareholders representing two-thirds of shares present and voting need to approve the deal. Mr David Li represents 76.0% of the voting interest and has the two-thirds voting interest threshold needed to approve any potential privatisation deal.Our SOTP and relative valuation suggest that the rumoured privatisation range of $75-100 per ADS is justifiable and reasonable. Our base-case SOTP valuation is $71.69 per ADS, which is a 16% premium to the last close price of $61.97 per ADS. Despite Joyy's insistence that no formal bid has been received, we would be buyers as the shares offer a favourable risk/reward profile to the emergence of a formal privatisation bid.

Joyy’s Potential Privatisation by Top Two Shareholders

China

Xiaomi Corporation manufactures communication equipment and parts. The Company produces and sells mobile phones, smart phone software,  set-top boxes, and related accessories. Xiaomi markets its products worldwide.

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Xiaomi (1810 HK)

Hong Kong Buybacks: Tencent Spent HKD600m for Buybacks Last Week

We highlight that the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Country Garden Services (6098 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: September Rebalance Flows Post Capping

There are some pretty large flows across the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH at the September rebalance due to name/float/capping changes. Impact on some...

Brian Freitas

EM Fund Positioning: All You Need to Know

In this analysis, we provide a detailed overview of investor positioning among 250 active Global Emerging Market funds with combined AUM of $500bn.

Steven Holden

HK Short Interest: Short Increased in Xiaomi, Pop Mart and Cansino

We highlight week-on-week short interest Increased in Xiaomi, Pop Mart and Cansino based on the latest Hong Kong SFC aggregate short interest report.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Joyy’s Potential Privatisation by Top Two Shareholders

Joyy's rumoured privatisation bid is at $75-$100 per ADS. Our base-case SOTP valuation is $71.69, a 16% premium to the last close. Consequently,...

Arun George

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