Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia H20 sales to China were barred last month. Nvidia first mentioned designing a new China-specific chip. Maybe not: it looks very difficult to work around the updated US limits</li>
<li>Semiconductor design software was barred last week. Synopsys suspended its guidance. My industry checks suggests that the ban applies to Xiaomi (ie the new smartphone chip) and to Lenovo. </li>
<li>Hanmi Semi stopped shipping TC Bonder to Chinese clients. This is critical to make HBM memory that goes into AI processors.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia H20 sales to China were barred last month. Nvidia first mentioned designing a new China-specific chip. Maybe not: it looks very difficult to work around the updated US limits
Semiconductor design software was barred last week. Synopsys suspended its guidance. My industry checks suggests that the ban applies to Xiaomi (ie the new smartphone chip) and to Lenovo. 
Hanmi Semi stopped shipping TC Bonder to Chinese clients. This is critical to make HBM memory that goes into AI processors.


US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-f-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44093:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (6936 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-group-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:264:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Group (390 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-securities-co-4f5d644c-0051-426f-9706-eaa74b0ba280" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22738:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Securities (6099 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.5-1.3x ADV in the deletes. There are some small capping flows too.</li>
<li>There are a lot of shorts in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-group-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:264:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK)</a> and China <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-securities-co-4f5d644c-0051-426f-9706-eaa74b0ba280" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22738:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK)</a>.   </li>
</ul>



Pop Mart (9992 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) will replace China Railway Group (390 HK) and China Merchants Securities (6099 HK) in the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US). 
Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.5-1.3x ADV in the deletes. There are some small capping flows too.
There are a lot of shorts in Pop Mart (9992 HK), China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK) and China China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK).   


FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>LKNCY US: Luckin coffee launches RMB 6.9/ Cup Coupons (-) </li>
<li>1810 HK: Xiaomi Auto Expected to Turn Profitable in 3Q-4Q25(+)</li>
<li>New Energy Vehicle: China Major Automakers May 2025 Sales Summary(-)</li>
</ul>


LKNCY US: Luckin coffee launches RMB 6.9/ Cup Coupons (-) 
1810 HK: Xiaomi Auto Expected to Turn Profitable in 3Q-4Q25(+)
New Energy Vehicle: China Major Automakers May 2025 Sales Summary(-)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1810 HK/New Energy Vehicle

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Banks / Cover Story: China’s bank deposit insurance plan is seen needing new support In the spring of 2019, a quiet but historic event shook China’s banking sector: Baoshang Bank collapsed.</li><li>It was the first true bank failure in the country since the founding of the People’s Republic, and the first real test of a deposit insurance system created four years earlier.</li><li>That test would define the future of financial risk management in China.</li></ul>

Banks / Cover Story: China’s bank deposit insurance plan is seen needing new support In the spring of 2019, a quiet but historic event shook China’s banking sector: Baoshang Bank collapsed.It was the first true bank failure in the country since the founding of the People’s Republic, and the first real test of a deposit insurance system created four years earlier.That test would define the future of financial risk management in China.

CX Daily: China’s Bank Deposit Insurance Plan Is Seen Needing New Support 

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HS TECH in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Xiaomi, Ntes - S, Meituan, Jd - Sw, Smic, Horizonrobot, Hua Hong Semi.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HS TECH in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Xiaomi, Ntes - S, Meituan, Jd - Sw, Smic, Horizonrobot, Hua Hong Semi.


HS TECH Index Earning Revision (May): Xiaomi, Ntes, Meituan, Jd, Smic, Horizonrobot

China

Xiaomi Corporation manufactures communication equipment and parts. The Company produces and sells mobile phones, smart phone software,  set-top boxes, and related accessories. Xiaomi markets its products worldwide.

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Xiaomi (1810 HK)

US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse

Nvidia might not have a workaround for a new China-specific chip. EDA software ban also for consumer electronics Xiaomi, Lenovo. Hanmi Semi halted...

Nicolas Baratte

FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out

Pop Mart and SF Holdings replace China Railway and China Merchant Securities in the FXI ETF at the close on 20 June. SF Holding will also be added...

Brian Freitas

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1810 HK/New Energy Vehicle

Luckin Coffee offers discounted coupons, Xiaomi Auto is projected to become profitable in late 2025, and Chinese automakers face challenges in the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CX Daily: China’s Bank Deposit Insurance Plan Is Seen Needing New Support

TOP STORIES Banks / Cover Story: China’s bank deposit insurance plan is seen needing new support In the spring of 2019, a quiet but historic...

Caixin Global

HS TECH Index Earning Revision (May): Xiaomi, Ntes, Meituan, Jd, Smic, Horizonrobot

We analyzed HS TECH's consensus for May 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Xiaomi, Ntes - S, Meituan, Jd - Sw, Smic, Horizonrobot, Hua Hong Semi.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse

​Nvidia might not have a workaround for a new China-specific chip. EDA software ban also for consumer electronics Xiaomi, Lenovo. Hanmi Semi halted...

Nicolas Baratte

FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out

Pop Mart and SF Holdings replace China Railway and China Merchant Securities in the FXI ETF at the close on 20 June. SF Holding will also be added...

Brian Freitas

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1810 HK/New Energy Vehicle

​Luckin Coffee offers discounted coupons, Xiaomi Auto is projected to become profitable in late 2025, and Chinese automakers face challenges in the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CX Daily: China’s Bank Deposit Insurance Plan Is Seen Needing New Support

TOP STORIES Banks / Cover Story: China’s bank deposit insurance plan is seen needing new support In the spring of 2019, a quiet but historic...

Caixin Global

HS TECH Index Earning Revision (May): Xiaomi, Ntes, Meituan, Jd, Smic, Horizonrobot

We analyzed HS TECH's consensus for May 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Xiaomi, Ntes - S, Meituan, Jd - Sw, Smic, Horizonrobot, Hua Hong Semi.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Nvidia might not have a workaround for a new China-specific chip. EDA software ban also for consumer electronics Xiaomi, Lenovo. Hanmi Semi halted...

Luckin Coffee offers discounted coupons, Xiaomi Auto is projected to become profitable in late 2025, and Chinese automakers face challenges in the...