Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1347 HK/ACMR US: Hua Hong Wuxi Fab Phase II begins tool move-in (+/+)</li>
<li>1810 HK/BIDU US/0175 HK: “Xiaomi criticized for selling cars at a loss” goes viral (+/-/-)</li>
<li>2150 HK:Nayuki's First Overseas Flagship Store Opens in Thailand (+)</li>
</ul>


1347 HK/ACMR US: Hua Hong Wuxi Fab Phase II begins tool move-in (+/+)
1810 HK/BIDU US/0175 HK: “Xiaomi criticized for selling cars at a loss” goes viral (+/-/-)
2150 HK:Nayuki's First Overseas Flagship Store Opens in Thailand (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1347HK/ACMR/1810HK/BIDU/175HK/1211HK/NIO/XPEV/TSLA/LI/2150HK/1519HK/ZTO/1810HK

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>XPeng (XPEV) reported C2Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net income in line, 5.4% worse and 7.5% better than our estimate. </li>
<li>We raised our MONA forecast by 13% but still significantly below XPEV’s guidance. We believe management guidance is overly optimistic;</li>
<li>We maintain a SELL rating on the stock and TP unchanged.</li>
</ul>


XPeng (XPEV) reported C2Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net income in line, 5.4% worse and 7.5% better than our estimate. 
We raised our MONA forecast by 13% but still significantly below XPEV’s guidance. We believe management guidance is overly optimistic;
We maintain a SELL rating on the stock and TP unchanged.


[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$2) Earnings Review]: Delivery Goal for MONA M03 Is Unrealistic

<ul>
<li>1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US: Xiaomi’s Africa smartphone sales outgrow market in 2Q24 (+/+/-)</li>
<li>XPEV US:Xpeng Motors' revenue in the second quarter was in line with our expectations, and its losses were greater than our expectations(/)</li>
<li>1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US:In the 33rd week of 2024, the delivery of new energy vehicles by Xiaomi fluctuated, Leapmotor and Li were strong, and NIO remained weak  (/////////)</li>
</ul>


1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US: Xiaomi’s Africa smartphone sales outgrow market in 2Q24 (+/+/-)
XPEV US:Xpeng Motors' revenue in the second quarter was in line with our expectations, and its losses were greater than our expectations(/)
1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US:In the 33rd week of 2024, the delivery of new energy vehicles by Xiaomi fluctuated, Leapmotor and Li were strong, and NIO remained weak  (/////////)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US/XPEV US/1211 HK/NIO US/LI US/LKNCY US/002352 CH/2618 HK

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Maintain HOLD. Xpeng’s 2Q24 earnings were largely in line with our forecast. Although we assume its 2H24E sales volume to more than double HoH, we see no loss narrowing HoH in 2H24E.</li><li>We believe that Xpeng’s vehicle gross margin could be capped by the lower-priced Mona models, as the company now bets on these models to boost sales.</li><li>We are of the view that the underlying rationale of such strategy is Xpeng’s diminishing brand image, especially as peers are narrowing the gap in autonomous driving (AD) technologies.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Maintain HOLD. Xpeng’s 2Q24 earnings were largely in line with our forecast. Although we assume its 2H24E sales volume to more than double HoH, we see no loss narrowing HoH in 2H24E.We believe that Xpeng’s vehicle gross margin could be capped by the lower-priced Mona models, as the company now bets on these models to boost sales.We are of the view that the underlying rationale of such strategy is Xpeng’s diminishing brand image, especially as peers are narrowing the gap in autonomous driving (AD) technologies.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US) - Mona M03 May Not Be the Game-Changer

<ul>
<li>ATAT US/TCOM US:Daily Traffic Volume growth on highways is flattish YoY During the Summer Travel Season(-/-)</li>
<li>BEKE US: Decrease in New Short-term Loans to Residents in July, but Increase in New Long-term Loans(+)</li>
<li>BEKE US:House prices continued to decline in July . (-)</li>
</ul>


ATAT US/TCOM US:Daily Traffic Volume growth on highways is flattish YoY During the Summer Travel Season(-/-)
BEKE US: Decrease in New Short-term Loans to Residents in July, but Increase in New Long-term Loans(+)
BEKE US:House prices continued to decline in July . (-)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/BEKE US/NIO US/LI US/1810 HK/1211 HK/XPEV US/LKNCY US

China

XPeng Inc. designs, produces, and distributes electric vehicles. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets smart smart electric vehicles, as well as finance, parts, and maintenance services. XPeng serves customers in China.

Price Gauge
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XPeng (XPEV US)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1347HK/ACMR/1810HK/BIDU/175HK/1211HK/NIO/XPEV/TSLA/LI/2150HK/1519HK/ZTO/1810HK

Hua Hong Wuxi Fab Phase II starts tool move-in, Xiaomi faces backlash for selling cars at a loss, Nayuki opens first overseas store in Thailand.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$2) Earnings Review]: Delivery Goal for MONA M03 Is Unrealistic

XPeng reported mixed financial results for the second quarter, with revenue slightly below expectations and net income exceeding estimates. We...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US/XPEV US/1211 HK/NIO US/LI US/LKNCY US/002352 CH/2618 HK

Xiaomi's smartphone sales in Africa outperform market, Xpeng Motors' Q2 revenue meets but losses exceed expectations, new energy vehicle...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US) - Mona M03 May Not Be the Game-Changer

Maintain HOLD. Xpeng’s 2Q24 earnings were largely in line with our forecast. Although we assume its 2H24E sales volume to more than double HoH, we...

CMB International

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/BEKE US/NIO US/LI US/1810 HK/1211 HK/XPEV US/LKNCY US

Summer travel season sees flat growth in highway traffic volume, decrease in short-term loans but increase in long-term loans, and continued...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1347HK/ACMR/1810HK/BIDU/175HK/1211HK/NIO/XPEV/TSLA/LI/2150HK/1519HK/ZTO/1810HK

​Hua Hong Wuxi Fab Phase II starts tool move-in, Xiaomi faces backlash for selling cars at a loss, Nayuki opens first overseas store in Thailand.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$2) Earnings Review]: Delivery Goal for MONA M03 Is Unrealistic

​XPeng reported mixed financial results for the second quarter, with revenue slightly below expectations and net income exceeding estimates. We...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US/XPEV US/1211 HK/NIO US/LI US/LKNCY US/002352 CH/2618 HK

​Xiaomi's smartphone sales in Africa outperform market, Xpeng Motors' Q2 revenue meets but losses exceed expectations, new energy vehicle...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US) - Mona M03 May Not Be the Game-Changer

Maintain HOLD. Xpeng’s 2Q24 earnings were largely in line with our forecast. Although we assume its 2H24E sales volume to more than double HoH, we...

CMB International

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/BEKE US/NIO US/LI US/1810 HK/1211 HK/XPEV US/LKNCY US

​Summer travel season sees flat growth in highway traffic volume, decrease in short-term loans but increase in long-term loans, and continued...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hua Hong Wuxi Fab Phase II starts tool move-in, Xiaomi faces backlash for selling cars at a loss, Nayuki opens first overseas store in Thailand.

XPeng reported mixed financial results for the second quarter, with revenue slightly below expectations and net income exceeding estimates. We...

Xiaomi's smartphone sales in Africa outperform market, Xpeng Motors' Q2 revenue meets but losses exceed expectations, new energy vehicle...

Summer travel season sees flat growth in highway traffic volume, decrease in short-term loans but increase in long-term loans, and continued...