Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Employment picture worsened in December. We believe Chinese government will erect hiring-related corporate subsidy in 2025;</li>
<li>Early attempts at street drink overseas have failed. But new attempts from Luckin might well work, over time;</li>
<li>Tesla's new Model Y received a raving reception from Chinese consumers. But we doubt it can last.</li>
</ul>


Employment picture worsened in December. We believe Chinese government will erect hiring-related corporate subsidy in 2025;
Early attempts at street drink overseas have failed. But new attempts from Luckin might well work, over time;
Tesla's new Model Y received a raving reception from Chinese consumers. But we doubt it can last.


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 4/52] Luckin Coffee's Overseas Expansion Is Worth Waiting For

<ul>
<li>Despite wide market skepticism,  macro data pointed to shaky but persist recovery. If Trump Tariff 2.0 is delayed, a macro policy overdose is possible; </li>
<li>What does China's EV sector look like in 2025? Our take is robust growth coupled with continuous exits and consolidations;</li>
<li>Is reckless price war the inevitable China story line? Luckin, BYD and Xiaomi showed they want something different this week.</li>
</ul>


Despite wide market skepticism,  macro data pointed to shaky but persist recovery. If Trump Tariff 2.0 is delayed, a macro policy overdose is possible; 
What does China's EV sector look like in 2025? Our take is robust growth coupled with continuous exits and consolidations;
Is reckless price war the inevitable China story line? Luckin, BYD and Xiaomi showed they want something different this week.


[Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (3/52)] Recovery Persist, Focus on Profitablity New

<ul>
<li>China's 2025 trade-in subsidies now include smartphones and ICE vehicles, but with a price caveat that excludes Apple, positive for Xiaomi and JD.com;</li>
<li>China limits export of LFP battery technology, but lowers import tax again;</li>
<li>ICE-Turned EV makers continue to enjoy product superiority. The watchouts for 2025 are BYD and Geely. Tesla's sales may peter out from C2H25.</li>
</ul>


China's 2025 trade-in subsidies now include smartphones and ICE vehicles, but with a price caveat that excludes Apple, positive for Xiaomi and JD.com;
China limits export of LFP battery technology, but lowers import tax again;
ICE-Turned EV makers continue to enjoy product superiority. The watchouts for 2025 are BYD and Geely. Tesla's sales may peter out from C2H25.


Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (2/2025): Tesla Heading into a Different Chinese EV Market

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stan Zhao

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector

<ul>
<li>US and China are two biggest markets in autonomous driving and robotaxi. However, due to US-China decoupling, each market is off limits to the other;</li>
<li>This makes non-US/non-China markets heavily contended. Uber and Lyft leads Didi and Meituan in globalization. But Chinese EV makers and ADS vendors might benefit from partnering with the two;</li>
<li>We expect companies with low priced vehicle production capacity, like BYD, XPEV, LEAP and Zeekr to  benefit more. Among ADS vendors, WeRide and Poni.AI stand out.</li>
</ul>


US and China are two biggest markets in autonomous driving and robotaxi. However, due to US-China decoupling, each market is off limits to the other;
This makes non-US/non-China markets heavily contended. Uber and Lyft leads Didi and Meituan in globalization. But Chinese EV makers and ADS vendors might benefit from partnering with the two;
We expect companies with low priced vehicle production capacity, like BYD, XPEV, LEAP and Zeekr to  benefit more. Among ADS vendors, WeRide and Poni.AI stand out.


Prospectus of Robotaxi Outside of China and US Is Bright for Chinese Supply Chains

<ul>
<li>
Macro: China may issue RMB3tn of special treasury bonds in 2025, accounting for 2.2% of GDP, 3rd highest in history;</li>
<li>
EV: BEV sector showed renewed interest with (1) CATL made battery swapping move, (2) Xiaomi gained access to charging network of NIO, XPEV and LI;</li>
<li>
SaaS: After making progress by its own, Beike terminated a major acquisition to save cost. Plus others...</li>
</ul>



Macro: China may issue RMB3tn of special treasury bonds in 2025, accounting for 2.2% of GDP, 3rd highest in history;

EV: BEV sector showed renewed interest with (1) CATL made battery swapping move, (2) Xiaomi gained access to charging network of NIO, XPEV and LI;

SaaS: After making progress by its own, Beike terminated a major acquisition to save cost. Plus others...


China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (52/2024): Positive Macro, BEV Revival & Good Time to Invest in SaaS

China

XPeng Inc. designs, produces, and distributes electric vehicles. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets smart smart electric vehicles, as well as finance, parts, and maintenance services. XPeng serves customers in China.

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XPeng (XPEV US)

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 4/52] Luckin Coffee's Overseas Expansion Is Worth Waiting For

Employment deteriorated in December. We believe government will need to introduce hiring-related corporate subsidies in the March Two Session. ...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (3/52)] Recovery Persist, Focus on Profitablity New

This week's macro data pointed to gradual recovery. We also found new focus on profitability by leading companies, which is a good sign.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (2/2025): Tesla Heading into a Different Chinese EV Market

2025 trade-in subsidies favor Xiaomi and JD.com. China's new measure at limiting LFP battery exports added on export bans. Geely is new player at...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Prospectus of Robotaxi Outside of China and US Is Bright for Chinese Supply Chains

US-China decoupling splits the biggest and the 2nd biggest ride hailing market, which raise the importance of non-US, non China markets. We see...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (52/2024): Positive Macro, BEV Revival & Good Time to Invest in SaaS

China plans to issue RMB3tn in special treasury bonds in 2025, BEV sector sees growth with battery swapping and charging network partnerships,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 4/52] Luckin Coffee's Overseas Expansion Is Worth Waiting For

​Employment deteriorated in December. We believe government will need to introduce hiring-related corporate subsidies in the March Two Session. ...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (3/52)] Recovery Persist, Focus on Profitablity New

This week's macro data pointed to gradual recovery. We also found new focus on profitability by leading companies, which is a good sign.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (2/2025): Tesla Heading into a Different Chinese EV Market

2025 trade-in subsidies favor Xiaomi and JD.com. China's new measure at limiting LFP battery exports added on export bans. Geely is new player at...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Prospectus of Robotaxi Outside of China and US Is Bright for Chinese Supply Chains

​US-China decoupling splits the biggest and the 2nd biggest ride hailing market, which raise the importance of non-US, non China markets. We see...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (52/2024): Positive Macro, BEV Revival & Good Time to Invest in SaaS

​China plans to issue RMB3tn in special treasury bonds in 2025, BEV sector sees growth with battery swapping and charging network partnerships,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Employment deteriorated in December. We believe government will need to introduce hiring-related corporate subsidies in the March Two Session. ...

US-China decoupling splits the biggest and the 2nd biggest ride hailing market, which raise the importance of non-US, non China markets. We see...

China plans to issue RMB3tn in special treasury bonds in 2025, BEV sector sees growth with battery swapping and charging network partnerships,...