HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The potential IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a>'s 52.7% owned Amer Sports is positive in unlocking the latter's underlying value, though the impact is quite limited.</li>
<li>Assuming a P/S of 1.8x (30% discount to peers) and 25% enlargement in share capital, we estimate the exercise may bring ~HK$6n of potential pre-tax deemed disposal gain.</li>
<li>Although Anta Sports may not receive any cash, it can still pay out special dividends given its Rmb12bn net cash, and this will raise FY23 dividend yield to 3.1%.  </li>
</ul>


The potential IPO of Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)'s 52.7% owned Amer Sports is positive in unlocking the latter's underlying value, though the impact is quite limited.
Assuming a P/S of 1.8x (30% discount to peers) and 25% enlargement in share capital, we estimate the exercise may bring ~HK$6n of potential pre-tax deemed disposal gain.
Although Anta Sports may not receive any cash, it can still pay out special dividends given its Rmb12bn net cash, and this will raise FY23 dividend yield to 3.1%.  


Anta Sports (2020 HK): Assessing the Impact of a Potential Amer Sports IPO

China Tourism Group Duty Free / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In the near-term, China's relaxation of COVID-combating measures will boost consumption and demand for cross-province travel. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (1880 HK)</a> is a beneficiary.</li>
<li>Hotel bookings in Sanya have surged over the last two days, reflecting positive demand reaction. However, China's full border opening likely in 2023 is a challenge to CDFC.  </li>
<li>Low base in FY22 will drive 45% earnings growth for FY23. However, valuations are not cheap at 33.8x PER for FY23, a significant premium to consumption sector and international peers.</li>
</ul>


In the near-term, China's relaxation of COVID-combating measures will boost consumption and demand for cross-province travel. China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (1880 HK) is a beneficiary.
Hotel bookings in Sanya have surged over the last two days, reflecting positive demand reaction. However, China's full border opening likely in 2023 is a challenge to CDFC.  
Low base in FY22 will drive 45% earnings growth for FY23. However, valuations are not cheap at 33.8x PER for FY23, a significant premium to consumption sector and international peers.


CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Near-Term Positive but It Is Not Cheap at All

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 2nd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Meituan, Country Garden, China Mobile and outflows from Longfor, Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 2nd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight inflows into Meituan, Country Garden, China Mobile and outflows from Longfor, Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 2nd): Meituan, Country Garden, China Mobile, Longfor, Tencent

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Country Garden, and outflows from Meituan, ICBC, China Pacific, COSCO Shipping, Xiaomi.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Country Garden, and outflows from Meituan, ICBC, China Pacific, COSCO Shipping, Xiaomi.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $7bn Inflows in November

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 11th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Kuaishou Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 11th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight inflows into Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Kuaishou Technology.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 4th): Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Kuaishou

China

Xtep International Holdings Ltd. designs, manufactures, and markets sportwear. The Company produces footwear, apparel, and accessories.

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Xtep International (1368 HK)

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Assessing the Impact of a Potential Amer Sports IPO

A potential IPO of Anta Sports' 52.7%-owned Amer Sports may generate ~HK$6n of deemed disposal gain, based on P/S of 1.8x and 25% capital...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Near-Term Positive but It Is Not Cheap at All

China's relaxation of COVID control will bring better near-term outlook, as reflected by surge in Sanya's hotel bookings. There are still...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 2nd): Meituan, Country Garden, China Mobile, Longfor, Tencent

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Meituan, Country Garden, China Mobile, Longfor, Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $7bn Inflows in November

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for November and highlight flows for Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Country Garden, Meituan, ICBC, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 4th): Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Kuaishou

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Kuaishou.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

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