Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Japanese inflation, which peaked at 4.3% in January 2023, gradually decreased to 3.5%, 3.2%, 3.3%, 3.3%, and 3.2% in the subsequent months of 2023.</li>
<li>Inflation rates remained stable for most items, excluding Fuel, Electricity, Water, and fresh vegetables, indicating the persistence of cost-push inflation.</li>
<li>In this insight, we analyze the recent quarterly performance of Yakult, Nissin, and Seven &amp; I, Japanese Consumer Staples companies discussed in our prior Smartkarma Original.</li>
</ul>


Japanese inflation, which peaked at 4.3% in January 2023, gradually decreased to 3.5%, 3.2%, 3.3%, 3.3%, and 3.2% in the subsequent months of 2023.
Inflation rates remained stable for most items, excluding Fuel, Electricity, Water, and fresh vegetables, indicating the persistence of cost-push inflation.
In this insight, we analyze the recent quarterly performance of Yakult, Nissin, and Seven &amp; I, Japanese Consumer Staples companies discussed in our prior Smartkarma Original.


Japan Consumer Staples Update: Inflation Looks a Blessing in Disguise for Those with Pricing Power

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yakult-honsha-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17153:1" rel="noopener">Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)</a>'s OP fell short of market expectations by ¥500 million in 1QFY24, leading to a 15% drop in the company's share price.</li>
<li>With the post earnings price reaction, Yakult's FY+2 PE has fallen to its lowest level since before the global financial crisis, currently standing at around 18.7x.</li>
<li>We think this price reaction is unwarranted as the fundamentals haven't changed. Thus, creates an opportunity for short-term gains by staying bullish on the stock.</li>
</ul>



Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)'s OP fell short of market expectations by ¥500 million in 1QFY24, leading to a 15% drop in the company's share price.
With the post earnings price reaction, Yakult's FY+2 PE has fallen to its lowest level since before the global financial crisis, currently standing at around 18.7x.
We think this price reaction is unwarranted as the fundamentals haven't changed. Thus, creates an opportunity for short-term gains by staying bullish on the stock.


Yakult: At Its Lowest PE Since Before the Global Financial Crisis

<ul>
<li>Market expectations for Yakult's 1QFY24 earnings seem weak, with consensus looking light, and the share price currently lingering near the lower boundary of the minus 2x trend channel.</li>
<li>Therefore, we believe that even a minor earnings beat next week could potentially drive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yakult-honsha-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17153:1" rel="noopener">Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)</a>'s share price back up to the ¥10,000 level.</li>
<li>We anticipate that Yakult 1000 has the potential to drive that earnings beat, as it is projected to grow by as much as 65% YoY this quarter.</li>
</ul>


Market expectations for Yakult's 1QFY24 earnings seem weak, with consensus looking light, and the share price currently lingering near the lower boundary of the minus 2x trend channel.
Therefore, we believe that even a minor earnings beat next week could potentially drive Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)'s share price back up to the ¥10,000 level.
We anticipate that Yakult 1000 has the potential to drive that earnings beat, as it is projected to grow by as much as 65% YoY this quarter.


Yakult: Yakult 1000 Could Deliver a Surprise Yet Again

<ul>
<li>Having reached a 30 year high of 4% in December 2022, which is two times the BOJ’s target, Japanese companies are finding it hard to absorb cost inflation.</li>
<li>This macro environment presents an opportunity to appreciate the few Japanese Food and Beverages companies that have managed to maintain average pricing growth even in a deflationary environment.</li>
<li>With a lasting pricing-power and a relatively inelastic demand than competitors, we think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yakult-honsha-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17153:1" rel="noopener">Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-foods-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12548:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Foods Holdings (2897 JP)</a> are in a great position to outperform competition. </li>
</ul>


Having reached a 30 year high of 4% in December 2022, which is two times the BOJ’s target, Japanese companies are finding it hard to absorb cost inflation.
This macro environment presents an opportunity to appreciate the few Japanese Food and Beverages companies that have managed to maintain average pricing growth even in a deflationary environment.
With a lasting pricing-power and a relatively inelastic demand than competitors, we think Yakult Honsha (2267 JP) and Nissin Foods Holdings (2897 JP) are in a great position to outperform competition. 


Japan Consumer Staples Sector : Inflation Looks a Blessing in Disguise for Those with Pricing Power

<ul>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamazaki-baking-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7658:1" rel="noopener">Yamazaki Baking (2212 JP)</a>'s recent surge has been impressive, consensus expectations are high for the upcoming quarter, despite yet another price hike in July 2023.</li>
<li>From a valuation perspective, we expect limited upside potential even if Yamazaki Baking surpasses consensus expectations.</li>
<li>Therefore, we believe that the risk-reward profile for maintaining a long position in Yamazaki Baking is currently not particularly attractive.</li>
</ul>


While Yamazaki Baking (2212 JP)'s recent surge has been impressive, consensus expectations are high for the upcoming quarter, despite yet another price hike in July 2023.
From a valuation perspective, we expect limited upside potential even if Yamazaki Baking surpasses consensus expectations.
Therefore, we believe that the risk-reward profile for maintaining a long position in Yamazaki Baking is currently not particularly attractive.


Yamazaki Baking: Breads & Buns Buonce But Valuation Is a Stalemate

Japan

YAKULT HONSHA CO., LTD produces and sells fermented milk products, soft drinks and food products.  The Company also manufactures pharmaceutical and cosmetic products.  Through its subsidiary, the professional baseball team, Tokyo Yakult Swallows is owned and managed.

52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)

Japan Consumer Staples Update: Inflation Looks a Blessing in Disguise for Those with Pricing Power

Japanese inflation peaked at 4.3% in January 2023 but decreased to 3.5%, 3.2%, 3.3%, 3.3%, and 3.2% in the following months. For most items except...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Yakult: At Its Lowest PE Since Before the Global Financial Crisis

Yakult's stock price dropped 15% due to earnings missing expectations, yet fundamentals remain steady. This offers a chance to purchase Yakult at a...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Yakult: Yakult 1000 Could Deliver a Surprise Yet Again

Yakult has historically increased the production capacity of Yakult 1000 in stages, with the majority of these increments taking place during the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan Consumer Staples Sector : Inflation Looks a Blessing in Disguise for Those with Pricing Power

This inflationary environment presents an opportunity to appreciate the few Japanese Food and Beverages companies that have managed to maintain...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Yamazaki Baking: Breads & Buns Buonce But Valuation Is a Stalemate

Yamazaki Baking's surging stock faces high expectations in 3Q23. With limited valuation upside, the risk-reward balance has tilted unfavorably for...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)