Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nitori dominates in home decor and furniture but now wants to become a top 10 fashion retailer through its N+ chain targeting older women. </li>
<li>It will raise the rate of new stores to 30 a year and then to up to 100 a year as it reaches scale. </li>
<li>Will it be the Uniqlo for the middle-aged? If so it could own a chunk of a segment worth an estimated ¥2.5 trillion.</li>
</ul>


Nitori dominates in home decor and furniture but now wants to become a top 10 fashion retailer through its N+ chain targeting older women. 
It will raise the rate of new stores to 30 a year and then to up to 100 a year as it reaches scale. 
Will it be the Uniqlo for the middle-aged? If so it could own a chunk of a segment worth an estimated ¥2.5 trillion.


Nitori to Ramp up N+ Clothing Chain – ¥500 Billion in New Sales?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Consumer electronics retailers and producers benefited a lot from the pandemic, supplying customers stuck at home with kit for work and play. </li>
<li>The Olympics also encouraged people to update their TVs and entertainment systems.</li>
<li>Now, sales are falling to pre-2020 levels due to saturation. Inflationary pressures also mean more people are turning to second-hand options or simply not replacing old appliances at all.</li>
</ul>


Consumer electronics retailers and producers benefited a lot from the pandemic, supplying customers stuck at home with kit for work and play. 
The Olympics also encouraged people to update their TVs and entertainment systems.
Now, sales are falling to pre-2020 levels due to saturation. Inflationary pressures also mean more people are turning to second-hand options or simply not replacing old appliances at all.


Japan's Consumer Electronics Retailers Face Tough Outlook

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>We were lucky with our call on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamada-denki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:641:1" rel="noopener">Yamada Denki (9831 JP)</a> earlier this year as the stock outperformed Topix by around 30% in the first 9 months of 2022.</li>
<li>We were expecting to make more than 70%, but revenues have fallen short of our expectations.</li>
<li>With demand falling more than expected after a short boost during COVID through telework and online classes, we would look to cash in the gains before the 2QFY23 earnings release.</li>
</ul>


We were lucky with our call on Yamada Denki (9831 JP) earlier this year as the stock outperformed Topix by around 30% in the first 9 months of 2022.
We were expecting to make more than 70%, but revenues have fallen short of our expectations.
With demand falling more than expected after a short boost during COVID through telework and online classes, we would look to cash in the gains before the 2QFY23 earnings release.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soho-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4123:1" rel="noopener">Soho China (410 HK)</a>'s Pan Shiyi is resigning to focus on "philanthropic pursuits". That sounds like "donations", which can be sourced from the Pans selling their stake in SOHO.</li>
<li>In the Nikkei 225 Annual Review, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec (6594 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20866:1" rel="noopener">SMC (6273 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya (7741 JP)</a> are IN. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unitika-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7669:1" rel="noopener">Unitika (3103 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruha-nichiro-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20640:1" rel="noopener">Maruha (1333 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oki-electric-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2181:1" rel="noopener">Oki Electric (6703 JP)</a> are OUT.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/volkswagen-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21738:1" rel="noopener">Volkswagen (VOW GR)</a> confirms its intention to float a portion of its Porsche sports-car brand within weeks, in what is expected to be one of Germany’s largest-ever public debuts.</li>
</ul>



Soho China (410 HK)'s Pan Shiyi is resigning to focus on "philanthropic pursuits". That sounds like "donations", which can be sourced from the Pans selling their stake in SOHO.
In the Nikkei 225 Annual Review, Nidec (6594 JP), SMC (6273 JP), Hoya (7741 JP) are IN. Unitika (3103 JP), Maruha (1333 JP), and Oki Electric (6703 JP) are OUT.

Volkswagen (VOW GR) confirms its intention to float a portion of its Porsche sports-car brand within weeks, in what is expected to be one of Germany’s largest-ever public debuts.


Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Nikkei 225 Review, SK Chemicals, SingTel, Porsche, Tyro

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>In early May 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamada-denki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:641:1" rel="noopener">Yamada Denki (9831 JP)</a> launched a GINORMOUS buyback program. I <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yamada-denki-ginormous-buyback-to-dramatically-boost-eps-and-roe" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wrote</a> about it suggesting the company meant business. The stock popped outright and vs Peers.</li>
<li>Then it fell back, and has only recently started moving back up. Surprising given buyback dynamics but it may have been overhang. If so, that overhang should be gone now.</li>
<li>And the stock is cheap, a chunk of the register is sticky, so this could get squeezier now.</li>
</ul>


In early May 2022, Yamada Denki (9831 JP) launched a GINORMOUS buyback program. I wrote about it suggesting the company meant business. The stock popped outright and vs Peers.
Then it fell back, and has only recently started moving back up. Surprising given buyback dynamics but it may have been overhang. If so, that overhang should be gone now.
And the stock is cheap, a chunk of the register is sticky, so this could get squeezier now.


Yamada Denki (9831) Buyback Progress Strong But Big Impact To Come

Japan

YAMADA DENKI CO., LTD. operates consumer electronic mass sales stores throughout Japan.  The Company sells home appliances, audio & visual systems, office automation equipment, telecommunication equipment, software, and computers. The Company also provides repair services for its merchandises.

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Yamada Denki (9831 JP)

Nitori to Ramp up N+ Clothing Chain – ¥500 Billion in New Sales?

Nitori has been underestimated before and now apparel retailers believe Nitori doesn't have the experience to take them on. They are wrong. It...

Michael Causton

Japan's Consumer Electronics Retailers Face Tough Outlook

Don't expect much growth from Japan's consumer electronics retailers. With market saturation and waning demand, there is trouble ahead and possibly...

Michael Causton

Yamada Holdings: Time to Lock In Profits

Even though we got our revenue expectations wrong and profit margins were disappointing as expected, our valuation idea played out with a return of...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Nikkei 225 Review, SK Chemicals, SingTel, Porsche, Tyro

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Yamada Denki (9831) Buyback Progress Strong But Big Impact To Come

Yamada Denki has bought back 8.3% of shares out ex-Treasury in 4mos, and after the Day1 pop, it hasn't outperformed peers. It's cheap, the buyback...

Travis Lundy

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