Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Yamada, Japan’s leading home appliance retailer, trade at a PER of less than 9x. Nitori, the leading furniture retailer trades at about 17x.</li>
<li>Both companies, having saturated their core market, are diversifying into the other’s territory.</li>
<li>Key Takeaway: Nitori is diversifying into a business with inherently lower margins, while Yamada moves into one with inherently higher margins.</li>
</ul>


Yamada, Japan’s leading home appliance retailer, trade at a PER of less than 9x. Nitori, the leading furniture retailer trades at about 17x.
Both companies, having saturated their core market, are diversifying into the other’s territory.
Key Takeaway: Nitori is diversifying into a business with inherently lower margins, while Yamada moves into one with inherently higher margins.


When Giants Clash: Yamada (9831) Vs. Nitori (9843)

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Seven &amp; I continues to seek shareholder approval for its own path, offering not just improved efficiency but a massive ¥2 trillion buyback albeit one over a long time frame.</li>
<li>This is a lot, especially when the core Seven Eleven chain in Japan is still struggling to keep up with its peers on monthly growth rates.</li>
<li>But this forgets retail media which is set to become a major new income stream for CVS and, judging by forecasts, would help pay for a chunk of that buyback.</li>
</ul>


Seven &amp; I continues to seek shareholder approval for its own path, offering not just improved efficiency but a massive ¥2 trillion buyback albeit one over a long time frame.
This is a lot, especially when the core Seven Eleven chain in Japan is still struggling to keep up with its peers on monthly growth rates.
But this forgets retail media which is set to become a major new income stream for CVS and, judging by forecasts, would help pay for a chunk of that buyback.


Retail Media Can Help Pay for a ¥2 Trillion Buyback

<ul>
<li>Bic Camera plans to invest in omnichannel, believing that many shoppers will continue to prefer shopping in store – and that stores are also the best way to reach tourists.</li>
<li>It will redesign stores to offer more experiential shopping and rethink its merchandise strategy.</li>
<li>It also needs to consider changes in Ikebukuro if it is to compete against the incoming Yodobashi Camera.</li>
</ul>


Bic Camera plans to invest in omnichannel, believing that many shoppers will continue to prefer shopping in store – and that stores are also the best way to reach tourists.
It will redesign stores to offer more experiential shopping and rethink its merchandise strategy.
It also needs to consider changes in Ikebukuro if it is to compete against the incoming Yodobashi Camera.


Bic Camera to Focus on Omnichannel Amidst Consumer Electronics Saturation

<ul>
<li>Adding a new strategy I call TARP – Tariff-Proof at a Reasonable Price. Stocks need to have little or no direct or indirect exposure to the US unless locally procured.</li>
<li>Kotobuki (2222), Kikkoman (2801), and Orix JREIT (8954) are all close to bullet-proof.</li>
<li>Yamada (9831) proves that what the market is looking for is a concept of a plan, not necessarily results.</li>
</ul>


Adding a new strategy I call TARP – Tariff-Proof at a Reasonable Price. Stocks need to have little or no direct or indirect exposure to the US unless locally procured.
Kotobuki (2222), Kikkoman (2801), and Orix JREIT (8954) are all close to bullet-proof.
Yamada (9831) proves that what the market is looking for is a concept of a plan, not necessarily results.


<ul>
<li>We expect Yamada to grow EBIT 18% annually on 3.6% growth in revenues, vs. consensus forecast of 7.2% growth in EBIT on 3.2% growth in sales.</li>
<li>If correct, our valuation model suggests that a fair value for Yamada is about ¥1,029, or about 145% higher than the current price.</li>
<li>The stock trades at 0.6x book value, which is fair if you expect no change, but we see ROE rising to almost 10%, from a low of less than 4%.</li>
</ul>


We expect Yamada to grow EBIT 18% annually on 3.6% growth in revenues, vs. consensus forecast of 7.2% growth in EBIT on 3.2% growth in sales.
If correct, our valuation model suggests that a fair value for Yamada is about ¥1,029, or about 145% higher than the current price.
The stock trades at 0.6x book value, which is fair if you expect no change, but we see ROE rising to almost 10%, from a low of less than 4%.


Yamada Denki (9831): What Hasn't Killed Them Made Them Stronger

Japan

Yamada Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, sells home appliances and offers various services for housing, furniture and interior, remodeling, real estate, insurance, finance, and others. Yamada Holdings provides its services throughout Japan.

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Yamada Holdings (9831 JP)

When Giants Clash: Yamada (9831) Vs. Nitori (9843)

Yamada and Nitori, Japan's top retailers, are diversifying into each other's markets with different margin implications. Yamada is moving up,...

Michael Allen

Retail Media Can Help Pay for a ¥2 Trillion Buyback

Seven & I seeks shareholder approval for ¥2 trillion buyback despite Seven Eleven's struggles, but retail media could potentially help fund a...

Michael Causton

Bic Camera to Focus on Omnichannel Amidst Consumer Electronics Saturation

Bic Camera to invest in omnichannel, focusing on experiential in-store shopping to attract tourists but the market is facing saturation. Bic is...

Michael Causton

Unloved Japan: Cheap & Tariff-Proof

New strategy TARP focuses on investing in stocks with little to no exposure to the US, highlighting companies like Kotobuki, Kikkoman, and Orix...

Michael Allen

Yamada Denki (9831): What Hasn't Killed Them Made Them Stronger

Yamada's potential for 18% EBIT growth could lead to a fair value of ¥1,029, 160% higher than current price, with ROE expected to rise to almost 10%.

Michael Allen

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

When Giants Clash: Yamada (9831) Vs. Nitori (9843)

​Yamada and Nitori, Japan's top retailers, are diversifying into each other's markets with different margin implications. Yamada is moving up,...

Michael Allen

Retail Media Can Help Pay for a ¥2 Trillion Buyback

​Seven & I seeks shareholder approval for ¥2 trillion buyback despite Seven Eleven's struggles, but retail media could potentially help fund a...

Michael Causton

Bic Camera to Focus on Omnichannel Amidst Consumer Electronics Saturation

​Bic Camera to invest in omnichannel, focusing on experiential in-store shopping to attract tourists but the market is facing saturation. Bic is...

Michael Causton

Unloved Japan: Cheap & Tariff-Proof

​New strategy TARP focuses on investing in stocks with little to no exposure to the US, highlighting companies like Kotobuki, Kikkoman, and Orix...

Michael Allen

Yamada Denki (9831): What Hasn't Killed Them Made Them Stronger

​Yamada's potential for 18% EBIT growth could lead to a fair value of ¥1,029, 160% higher than current price, with ROE expected to rise to almost 10%.

Michael Allen

Yamada and Nitori, Japan's top retailers, are diversifying into each other's markets with different margin implications. Yamada is moving up,...

Seven & I seeks shareholder approval for ¥2 trillion buyback despite Seven Eleven's struggles, but retail media could potentially help fund a...

Bic Camera to invest in omnichannel, focusing on experiential in-store shopping to attract tourists but the market is facing saturation. Bic is...

New strategy TARP focuses on investing in stocks with little to no exposure to the US, highlighting companies like Kotobuki, Kikkoman, and Orix...

Yamada's potential for 18% EBIT growth could lead to a fair value of ¥1,029, 160% higher than current price, with ROE expected to rise to almost 10%.