Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We look at which Japan banks have the most cash which can see a major boost to returns. </li>
<li>Banks with lower margins can see a higher net interest income pick up from rising rates. </li>
<li>Loan growth in Japan has been relatively strong, supportive of rising rates from BOJ.</li>
</ul>


We look at which Japan banks have the most cash which can see a major boost to returns. 
Banks with lower margins can see a higher net interest income pick up from rising rates. 
Loan growth in Japan has been relatively strong, supportive of rising rates from BOJ.


Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Japanese equities rebounded strongly this week, with the Nikkei 225 up 3.3% and TOPIX up 2.4%, nearly reversing the prior week’s sharp losses.</li>
<li>This week's top performer was Toppan Printing due to strong interest in its “Double View Film” for solar panels and a new data-driven customer-experience service, highlighting innovation and growth potential.</li>
<li>A quieter week for Activists. Dalton increased its Anicom stake to 9.5%, signalling confidence in the pet insurer’s stable growth and potential capital returns.</li>
</ul>


Japanese equities rebounded strongly this week, with the Nikkei 225 up 3.3% and TOPIX up 2.4%, nearly reversing the prior week’s sharp losses.
This week's top performer was Toppan Printing due to strong interest in its “Double View Film” for solar panels and a new data-driven customer-experience service, highlighting innovation and growth potential.
A quieter week for Activists. Dalton increased its Anicom stake to 9.5%, signalling confidence in the pet insurer’s stable growth and potential capital returns.


Japan Strategy Weekly | Thanksgiving Rally

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We update our views on ten Japanese midcap banks focusing on those with large strategic shareholdings relative to market value, as well as beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook</li>
<li>Our top-rated pick is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iyogin-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40839:1" rel="noopener">Iyogin Holdings (5830 JP)</a>, with its constructive mix of large strategic holdings, attractive valuations including PTBV ratio and healthy gearing to higher interest rates</li>
<li>We also retain Hokuhoku Financial and Hachijuni Bank as buys; Hokuhoku has yet to realize its large strategic holdings whilst Hachijuni has reached its target level for cross-holdings reduction</li>
</ul>


We update our views on ten Japanese midcap banks focusing on those with large strategic shareholdings relative to market value, as well as beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook
Our top-rated pick is Iyogin Holdings (5830 JP), with its constructive mix of large strategic holdings, attractive valuations including PTBV ratio and healthy gearing to higher interest rates
We also retain Hokuhoku Financial and Hachijuni Bank as buys; Hokuhoku has yet to realize its large strategic holdings whilst Hachijuni has reached its target level for cross-holdings reduction


Japanese Midcap Banks – Iyogin Holdings (5830 JP) Is Our Top Pick

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gunma-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15777:1" rel="noopener">Gunma Bank (8334 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daishi-hokuetsu-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27533:1" rel="noopener">Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group (7327 JP)</a>/DHFG have announced an MoU to establish one of the largest regional banks in Japan by 1 April 2027.</li>
<li>The transaction involves delisting Gunma through a share exchange with DHFG. A definitive agreement is expected around March 2026. </li>
<li>The plan is long-dated. The lack of a controlling shareholder necessitates a “fair” exchange ratio. My estimated Gunma/DHFG exchange ratio range is 0.38-0.39x.</li>
</ul>



Gunma Bank (8334 JP) and Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group (7327 JP)/DHFG have announced an MoU to establish one of the largest regional banks in Japan by 1 April 2027.
The transaction involves delisting Gunma through a share exchange with DHFG. A definitive agreement is expected around March 2026. 
The plan is long-dated. The lack of a controlling shareholder necessitates a “fair” exchange ratio. My estimated Gunma/DHFG exchange ratio range is 0.38-0.39x.


Gunma Bank (8334 JP): Daishi Hokuetsu (7327 JP) Share Exchange to Establish a Top Regional Bank

<ul>
<li>Of the nearly 200 financials in Japan, on average shares outstanding are up 3% over the past several years </li>
<li>Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, and Yamaguchi Financial are at the extreme opposite end with shares outstanding at -22%</li>
<li>MS&amp;AD features well ranking #11 of financials in our sample, with shares outstanding at -7%, adding well to its commitment on dividends, cross-shareholdings sales</li>
</ul>


Of the nearly 200 financials in Japan, on average shares outstanding are up 3% over the past several years 
Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, and Yamaguchi Financial are at the extreme opposite end with shares outstanding at -22%
MS&amp;AD features well ranking #11 of financials in our sample, with shares outstanding at -7%, adding well to its commitment on dividends, cross-shareholdings sales


Japan Financials - Buybacks Strongest at Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, Yamaguchi

Japan

Yamaguchi Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Yamaguchi Bank and Momiji Holdings. The Group provides variety of financial services such as deposits, loans, foreign exchange transactions, leasing and credit cards.

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Yamaguchi Financial Group In (8418 JP)

Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

BOJ to meet 23-24 Jan and likely to raise rates possibly by doubling short-term rates, from 0.25% to 0.50%. There are important implications for...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Strategy Weekly | Thanksgiving Rally

Japanese equities rebounded strongly this week, led by Toppan Printing's innovative products and Dalton's confidence in Anicom's growth potential.

Mark Chadwick

Japanese Midcap Banks – Iyogin Holdings (5830 JP) Is Our Top Pick

We focus on large cross-holdings and positive interest rate gearing in this report on Japanese midcap banks; Iyogin Holdings is our top pick,...

Victor Galliano

Japan Financials - Buybacks Strongest at Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, Yamaguchi

Japan Post Bank in spotlight now, and new data shows improving credit growth and demand, from Tankan Survey and from loan officer survey.

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

BOJ to meet 23-24 Jan and likely to raise rates possibly by doubling short-term rates, from 0.25% to 0.50%. There are important implications for...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Strategy Weekly | Thanksgiving Rally

​Japanese equities rebounded strongly this week, led by Toppan Printing's innovative products and Dalton's confidence in Anicom's growth potential.

Mark Chadwick

Japanese Midcap Banks – Iyogin Holdings (5830 JP) Is Our Top Pick

We focus on large cross-holdings and positive interest rate gearing in this report on Japanese midcap banks; Iyogin Holdings is our top pick,...

Victor Galliano

Gunma Bank (8334 JP): Daishi Hokuetsu (7327 JP) Share Exchange to Establish a Top Regional Bank

A definitive agreement is expected around March 2026. The lack of a controlling shareholder necessitates a “fair” exchange ratio. My estimated...

Arun George

Japan Financials - Buybacks Strongest at Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, Yamaguchi

Japan Post Bank in spotlight now, and new data shows improving credit growth and demand, from Tankan Survey and from loan officer survey.

Daniel Tabbush

Japanese equities rebounded strongly this week, led by Toppan Printing's innovative products and Dalton's confidence in Anicom's growth potential.