Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.</li>
<li>We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.</li>
<li>Worth noting- <em>further</em> breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.
We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.
Worth noting- further breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.


Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

<p>Our outlook remains unchanged as the weight of the evidence continues to suggest a mixed, but overall constructive market. Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight (i.e., Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation), while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). </p>

Our outlook remains unchanged as the weight of the evidence continues to suggest a mixed, but overall constructive market. Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight (i.e., Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation), while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). 

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

<p>Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to hold above critical support levels and market dynamics remain largely positive. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, we are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.</p>

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to hold above critical support levels and market dynamics remain largely positive. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, we are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• EARNINGS MOMENTUM TURNS POSITIVE •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/188/535/original/2021-02-14_09-01-24.png?1613260898" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="188535"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><p><strong>POSITIVE EARNINGS MOMENTUM</strong> - For the first time in just over one year and driven by a strong recovery in the index-heavy <strong>Auto</strong> Sector, our Market Composite Results &amp; Revision Score - a measure of earnings momentum - has turned positive. Meanwhile, the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions which is indexed to August 2015, has yet to rise above 100 and declined by 120 basis points for December.</p><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/188/537/original/2021-02-14_08-23-29.png?1613262285" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="188537"></figure></section><p><strong>SECTOR BREAKDOWN</strong> - The leading Sectors, as measured by the change in Results &amp; Revision Score, are<strong> Other Commercial Products</strong>, <strong>Autos</strong>, <strong>Metals</strong>, <strong>Building Materials</strong>, and <strong>Other Consumer Products</strong>. The laggards are <strong>Utilities</strong>, <strong>Internet</strong>, <strong>Food</strong>, <strong>Beverages &amp; Tobacco</strong>, <strong>Retail</strong>, and <strong>Commercial Services</strong>. As in other markets, cyclicals leading the recovery, and, as a result, driving Japan's indices to new multi-decade highs.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/188/538/original/2021-02-14_08-22-44.png?1613262793" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="188538"></figure></section><p><strong>FORWARD VALUATIONS</strong> - While the trailing Market Composite PER remain above 30 times,  a ¥7.6 trillion increase in forecast Net Income from the low point if 2020, has reduced the forward multiple to 28.2 times. By the end of May, most March year-end companies will have made forecasts for the year to March 2022 - a decline to below 25 times is likely, assuming Total Market Value is at current levels.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/188/539/original/2021-02-14_08-14-17.png?1613262839" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="188539"></figure></section><p><strong>ALL-TIME US$ HIGH &lt;10% AWAY</strong> - While much is being written about the new thirty-year high for the TOPIX index, many will have missed the proximity of TOPIX in US dollars terms to a new all-time high, which would occur with a combined 9.5% increase in the equity market and the Yen. A 4.3% rise in TOPIX and a USDJPY rate of 100 is all that is required and would be a welcome feather in the cap of the recently beleaguered PM Suga's cap. </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/188/540/original/2021-02-14_10-05-46.png?1613264814" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="188540"></figure></section><p><strong>RSI &gt;80</strong> - Tempering the current bullishness are the RSI of over 80 and a Toraku index close to 120. Both suggest near-term caution is warranted.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/188/541/original/2021-02-14_10-15-17.png?1613265332" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="188541"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/188/542/original/2021-02-14_10-20-42.png?1613265721" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="188542"></figure></section><hr></section><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>• RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS SUMMARY - 12th FEBRUARY •</strong></p><div><p>Of Friday's 723 results announcements, 64% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 3% on average and a 3.9 point decline in operating margins. 17% of companies were in the red for the quarter.  63% of the 360 annual forecasts/revision announcements scored positively, and the average Forecast/Revision score was +10.3 points.</p></div><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>The 'best' larger-cap announcements came from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7411:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha Motor (7272 JP)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toppan-printing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11875:1" rel="noopener">Toppan Printing (7911 JP)</a>; the 'worst' were from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-dainippon-pharma-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma (4506 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lion-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16576:1" rel="noopener">Lion (4912 JP)</a>.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pola-orbis-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2287:1" rel="noopener">Pola Orbis (4927 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group (2502 JP)</a> take the prizes for optimism.  For more, see the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/188/605/original/2021-02-15_06-00-48.png?1613336460" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="188605"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/188/606/original/2021-02-15_06-01-37.png?1613336511" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="188606"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/188/608/original/2021-02-15_06-05-12.png?1613336726" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="188608"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/188/610/original/2021-02-15_06-05-57.png?1613336771" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="188610"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/188/611/original/2021-02-15_06-06-35.png?1613336808" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="188611"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/188/612/original/2021-02-15_06-07-12.png?1613336846" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="188612"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/188/613/original/2021-02-15_06-10-36.png?1613337047" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="188613"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/188/615/original/2021-02-15_06-11-21.png?1613337091" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="188615"></figure></section><p></p>
</div>

• EARNINGS MOMENTUM TURNS POSITIVE •Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsPOSITIVE EARNINGS MOMENTUM - For the first time in just over one year and driven by a strong recovery in the index-heavy Auto Sector, our Market Composite Results &amp; Revision Score - a measure of earnings momentum - has turned positive. Meanwhile, the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions which is indexed to August 2015, has yet to rise above 100 and declined by 120 basis points for December.SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The leading Sectors, as measured by the change in Results &amp; Revision Score, are Other Commercial Products, Autos, Metals, Building Materials, and Other Consumer Products. The laggards are Utilities, Internet, Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Retail, and Commercial Services. As in other markets, cyclicals leading the recovery, and, as a result, driving Japan's indices to new multi-decade highs.
FORWARD VALUATIONS - While the trailing Market Composite PER remain above 30 times,  a ¥7.6 trillion increase in forecast Net Income from the low point if 2020, has reduced the forward multiple to 28.2 times. By the end of May, most March year-end companies will have made forecasts for the year to March 2022 - a decline to below 25 times is likely, assuming Total Market Value is at current levels.
ALL-TIME US$ HIGH &lt;10% AWAY - While much is being written about the new thirty-year high for the TOPIX index, many will have missed the proximity of TOPIX in US dollars terms to a new all-time high, which would occur with a combined 9.5% increase in the equity market and the Yen. A 4.3% rise in TOPIX and a USDJPY rate of 100 is all that is required and would be a welcome feather in the cap of the recently beleaguered PM Suga's cap. 
RSI &gt;80 - Tempering the current bullishness are the RSI of over 80 and a Toraku index close to 120. Both suggest near-term caution is warranted.
 • RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS SUMMARY - 12th FEBRUARY •Of Friday's 723 results announcements, 64% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 3% on average and a 3.9 point decline in operating margins. 17% of companies were in the red for the quarter.  63% of the 360 annual forecasts/revision announcements scored positively, and the average Forecast/Revision score was +10.3 points.• BEST &amp; WORST •
The 'best' larger-cap announcements came from Yamaha Motor (7272 JP),  Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), and Toppan Printing (7911 JP); the 'worst' were from Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP), Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma (4506 JP), and Lion (4912 JP).  Pola Orbis (4927 JP) and Asahi Group (2502 JP) take the prizes for optimism.  For more, see the DETAIL section below.



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market & Results & Revisions Update 02/12 • Yamaha Motor, J Post Bank, Otsuka & Lion

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Monday's best and worst pairing is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7411:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha Motor (7272 JP)</a> (already <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yamaha-motor-what-a-turnaround" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45102" rel="noopener">covered</a> by Mio) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jfe-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:210:1" rel="noopener">JFE (5411 JP)</a>.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/170/418/original/2020-11-10_06-23-38.png?1604957031" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="170418"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/170/420/original/2020-11-10_06-24-52.png?1604957104" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="170420"></figure></section>
</div><div><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>203 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 45% Positive / 7% Neutral / 48% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -0.7 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -9.4% Quarter YoY / -5.4% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.1 ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 17%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>90 Annual • 20 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 49% Positive / 7% Neutral / 44% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 40% Positive / 0% Neutral / 60% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 0.0 points</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Monday's best and worst pairing is Yamaha Motor (7272 JP) (already covered by Mio) and JFE (5411 JP).

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS203 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 45% Positive / 7% Neutral / 48% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.7 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -9.4% Quarter YoY / -5.4% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.1 ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 17%
90 Annual • 20 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 49% Positive / 7% Neutral / 44% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 40% Positive / 0% Neutral / 60% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: 0.0 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​09 -Hamamatsu, Secom, Sumitomo Metal Min

Japan

Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. manufactures motorcycles.  The Company also produces motor vehicle engines for Toyota Motor Corp. and Ford Motor Co.  Yamaha Motor's specialty products include motor boats, snowmobiles, golf carts, and electric power generators.  Yamaha Motor sells products in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and South America.

Price Gauge
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Yamaha Motor (7272 JP)

Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

Pullback Underway; Problem: U.S. Dollar $DXY, Global 10-Yr Sovereign Yields, and Commodities All on the Rise Again; Actionable Themes: Energy,...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight, while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples,...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

We are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market & Results & Revisions Update 02/12 • Yamaha Motor, J Post Bank, Otsuka & Lion

For the first time in just over one year and driven by a strong recovery in the index-heavy Auto Sector, our Market Composite Results & Revision...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/09 -Hamamatsu, Secom, Sumitomo Metal Min

• BEST & WORST • Monday's best and worst pairing is Yamaha Motor (7272 JP) (already covered by Mio) and JFE (5411 JP)................

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

Pullback Underway; Problem: U.S. Dollar $DXY, Global 10-Yr Sovereign Yields, and Commodities All on the Rise Again; Actionable Themes: Energy,...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight, while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples,...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

We are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market & Results & Revisions Update 02/12 • Yamaha Motor, J Post Bank, Otsuka & Lion

For the first time in just over one year and driven by a strong recovery in the index-heavy Auto Sector, our Market Composite Results & Revision...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​09 -Hamamatsu, Secom, Sumitomo Metal Min

• BEST & WORST • Monday's best and worst pairing is Yamaha Motor (7272 JP) (already covered by Mio) and JFE (5411 JP)................

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/09 -Hamamatsu, Secom, Sumitomo Metal Min