IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a>, the largest Asian integrated logistics service provider, is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion, according to press reports.</li>
<li>In <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sf-holding-h-share-listing-updates-point-to-improving-fundamentals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:166296" rel="noopener">SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals</a></em></strong>, we noted that SF is in good health, with a return to growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation.</li>
<li>In this note, we examine the likely discount SF Holding will offer its H Shares compared to the A Shares.</li>
</ul>



S.F. Holding (002352 CH), the largest Asian integrated logistics service provider, is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion, according to press reports.
In SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals, we noted that SF is in good health, with a return to growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation.
In this note, we examine the likely discount SF Holding will offer its H Shares compared to the A Shares.


SF Holding H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a>, the largest Asian integrated logistics service provider, is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion, according to press reports.</li>
<li>SF is the largest integrated logistics service player in China and Asia and the fourth largest player globally in terms of revenue in 2023, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.   </li>
<li>The PHIP update shows that the business is in good health, with a return to growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation. Therefore, a premium multiple to peers is justified.</li>
</ul>



S.F. Holding (002352 CH), the largest Asian integrated logistics service provider, is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion, according to press reports.
SF is the largest integrated logistics service player in China and Asia and the fourth largest player globally in terms of revenue in 2023, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.   
The PHIP update shows that the business is in good health, with a return to growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation. Therefore, a premium multiple to peers is justified.


SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trancom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13043:1" rel="noopener">Trancom Co Ltd (9058 JP)</a> recommended a Bain-sponsored MBO at JPY10,300, a 40.5% and 42.9% premium to the last close and undisturbed price, respectively. </li>
<li>The offer represents an all-time high but is lower than the midpoint of the IFA’s DCF valuation range and implies multiples below precedent transaction multiples. </li>
<li>While the Dalton irrevocable has a counteroffer clause, Mr Takebe (the largest shareholder) does not. Therefore, there is a low probability of a competing bidder emerging.   </li>
</ul>



Trancom Co Ltd (9058 JP) recommended a Bain-sponsored MBO at JPY10,300, a 40.5% and 42.9% premium to the last close and undisturbed price, respectively. 
The offer represents an all-time high but is lower than the midpoint of the IFA’s DCF valuation range and implies multiples below precedent transaction multiples. 
While the Dalton irrevocable has a counteroffer clause, Mr Takebe (the largest shareholder) does not. Therefore, there is a low probability of a competing bidder emerging.   


Trancom (9058 JP): Bain-Sponsored MBO at JPY10,300

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-logistics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3935:1" rel="noopener">Alps Logistics (9055 JP)</a> recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co (KKR US)</a> subsidiary at JPY5,774, 32.7% and 69.8% premium to the last close and undisturbed price, respectively. </li>
<li>The pre-condition is approvals under competition laws of Japan, China, the EU, South Korea and Vietnam. The tender offer is expected to start in mid-August.</li>
<li>The offer represents an all-time high and is a knockout bid. While the timing of regulatory approvals is a risk, the transaction is a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Alps Logistics (9055 JP) recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from a KKR &amp; Co (KKR US) subsidiary at JPY5,774, 32.7% and 69.8% premium to the last close and undisturbed price, respectively. 
The pre-condition is approvals under competition laws of Japan, China, the EU, South Korea and Vietnam. The tender offer is expected to start in mid-August.
The offer represents an all-time high and is a knockout bid. While the timing of regulatory approvals is a risk, the transaction is a done deal. 


Alps Logistics (9055 JP): KKR’s Knockout Pre-Conditional Offer at JPY5,774

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Up to 12 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in August. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.</li>
<li>There has been a buildup of shorts on nearly all these stocks though the extent of the pre-positioning varies.</li>
<li>The increase in shorts is smaller than the estimated passive selling, though there is a fair amount of variability across the names. </li>
</ul>


Up to 12 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in August. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
There has been a buildup of shorts on nearly all these stocks though the extent of the pre-positioning varies.
The increase in shorts is smaller than the estimated passive selling, though there is a fair amount of variability across the names. 


Japan - Passive Selling in a Few Weeks & Shorts Build Up

Japan

Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. mainly provides door-to-door parcel delivery services. The Company has developed a nationwide delivery system specializing in time-specified delivery. Yamato Holdings offers moving services and other comprehensive transportation services including logistics services for both domestic and overseas customers as well as financial and autoworks services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Yamato Holdings (9064 JP)

Trancom (9058 JP): Bain-Sponsored MBO at JPY10,300

The offer represents an all-time high but is lower than the IFA’s midpoint DCF valuation and implies multiples below precedent transaction...

Arun George

Alps Logistics (9055 JP): KKR’s Knockout Pre-Conditional Offer at JPY5,774

The precondition has been satisfied (Vietnam regulatory approval has been waived). The tender period is from 22 Aug to 4 Oct (30 business days),...

Arun George

Japan - Passive Selling in a Few Weeks & Shorts Build Up

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in August. Shorts have increased on nearly all stocks and the...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SF Holding H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

SF Holding is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion. In this note, we examine the likely discount SF Holding will offer its H...

Arun George

SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals

The PHIP update shows that the business is in good health, with a return to growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation. Therefore, a...

Arun George

Trancom (9058 JP): Bain-Sponsored MBO at JPY10,300

The offer represents an all-time high but is lower than the IFA’s midpoint DCF valuation and implies multiples below precedent transaction...

Arun George

Alps Logistics (9055 JP): KKR’s Knockout Pre-Conditional Offer at JPY5,774

The precondition has been satisfied (Vietnam regulatory approval has been waived). The tender period is from 22 Aug to 4 Oct (30 business days),...

Arun George

Japan - Passive Selling in a Few Weeks & Shorts Build Up

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in August. Shorts have increased on nearly all stocks and the...

Brian Freitas